i think i've found the holy grail, very easy way to never miss a trade

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mrluck012
261
mrluck012  

I need to create a group, no more than 10 traders, we just have to 



1- test a strategy for the 10 last entries, if if misses less than 2, of 80% accuracy you can rest assured that the chance of 2 consecutives losses are really small

2- As i have one of these strategies, i just need to find 9 persons that have the same good strategies, then we can share our strategies between us

3- So with 10 good strategies, we just have to wait one of these get a fail or lose entry, then enter the next trade, because with more than 80% accuracy, is very hard to lose the next entry, if you see 

the distribution of chance it's almost a holy grail


So if you have a strategy that for the last 10 trades miss no more than 2, let's combine our trading systems, just leave a message, let's beat the market

Jack Thomas
1635
Jack Thomas  
mrluck012:

I need to create a group, no more than 10 traders, we just have to .................


You first say that you have found the holy grail, and then you immediately ask people to send you 9 more strategies.

Clearly you don't have the holy grail, clearly you are trying to get others to provide you their strategies.

Move along, and just stop with this nonsense.

mrluck012
261
mrluck012  

i have found the way to find the holy grail: combine strategies, but 1 person alone takes too much time to develop even 1, so if i find others

with good systems we can mutually share between us, and profit, because this strategy is to wait for a lose entry, to trade the next, but with only 

1 i would have to wait too long to get 1 error, don't know if you understand it well... 

whroeder1
17939
whroeder1  
mrluck012: i have found the way to find the holy grail: combine strategies,
Always selling is a loosing strategy. Always buying is a loosing strategy. Combine them  is a loosing strategy. You pay the spread either way.
Jack Thomas
1635
Jack Thomas  
mrluck012:

i have found the way to find the holy grail: combine strategies, but 1 person alone takes too much time to develop even 1, so if i find others

with good systems we can mutually share between us, and profit, because this strategy is to wait for a lose entry, to trade the next, but with only 

1 i would have to wait too long to get 1 error, don't know if you understand it well... 


You don't have the holy grail.

Just about every new trader I have ever met has had something similar to your idea.

"I'll just combine all these and it will make me millions! yes holy grail!"

And then they promptly lose all their money, because it shows a complete lack of understanding of how the markets actually work.

You aren't anywhere close to the holy grail.

What works at this very moment in time, will probably not work tomorrow at this time, and may not even work 5 minutes from now.

Markets change over time.

Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

The only way to guarantee you will never lose in the markets is to not invest in the markets.

YMMAGICINC
69
YMMAGICINC  
Jack Thomas:


You don't have the holy grail.

Just about every new trader I have ever met has had something similar to your idea.

"I'll just combine all these and it will make me millions! yes holy grail!"

And then they promptly lose all their money, because it shows a complete lack of understanding of how the markets actually work.

You aren't anywhere close to the holy grail.

What works at this very moment in time, will probably not work tomorrow at this time, and may not even work 5 minutes from now.

Markets change over time.

Past performance is not an indication of future performance.

The only way to guarantee you will never lose in the markets is to not invest in the markets.

Spoken very well Jack. All trades have their own personalities. 
Amir Yacoby
1226
Amir Yacoby  
mrluck012:

I need to create a group, no more than 10 traders, we just have to 



1- test a strategy for the 10 last entries, if if misses less than 2, of 80% accuracy you can rest assured that the chance of 2 consecutives losses are really small

2- As i have one of these strategies, i just need to find 9 persons that have the same good strategies, then we can share our strategies between us

3- So with 10 good strategies, we just have to wait one of these get a fail or lose entry, then enter the next trade, because with more than 80% accuracy, is very hard to lose the next entry, if you see 

the distribution of chance it's almost a holy grail


So if you have a strategy that for the last 10 trades miss no more than 2, let's combine our trading systems, just leave a message, let's beat the market

I was sure it's you again only by the title, so just hop in to see your current nonesense idea. And you did not dissapoint me.
If you have an 80 % strategy, just go with it. You don't need another one, and your calculations are wrong of course.
First, what is an 80 % accuracy? 80 % hit tp? so you need to check that the tp is more then fifth than the sl.
Second, you are wrong when you think that you will wait for a failure and that way you increase your chances -
this is because the chance calculation of 2 failures in a row is very small only when calculated before the first try.
If you already tried the first try (which is what you suggest) and it failed - and then calculate then the next (second) try is exactly 80 % chance to succeed - no more.

As I said, you do not dissapoint me.
Alain Verleyen
36170
Alain Verleyen  
Amir Yacoby:
I was sure it's you again only by the title, so just hop in to see your current nonesense idea. And you did not dissapoint me.
...

Same here...an other good laugh, and stupid topic.

mrluck012
261
mrluck012  

1 -I'm talking about 80% ratio on a 1:1 strategy. 


2-  If you have 80% winning ratio, there are the possibilities of 2 consecutive losses

x x | | | | | | | | 1


| x x | | | | | | | 2

| | x x | | | | | | 3

| | | x x | | | | | 4

| | | | x x | | | | 5

| | | | | x x | | | 6

| | | | | | x x | | 7

| | | | | | | x x | 8

| | | | | | | | x x 9


So 9 ways it can occur sequentially, but on the other side, there is 45-9= 36 ways it can occur non sequentially, so the chance is 

36 against 9. 


3- If you use 1 of these 80% strategies and just wait the first lose trade, to enter the next, you'll have more than 36 against 9 chance, 

because the market has cycles, each new event depends on the past, so if you have a good system, and it loses, there will 

be a force to the next be a win trade 


4- I need to combine systems, because of time, if you have only one of these, you'll have to wait a lot of time to get a lose signal, so 

it's better to have several of them.


5- so why not just use only 1 of 80% system directly? and that's because when you win a lot, there will be a force against you, 

to lose the next trade, and also you chance of win would be:

 80% ---> 64% ----> 51%  .... So each new trade your chance of winning the next decrease, only in 2 trades just using a coin would

be as effective, but if you use that tactic of waiting for a loss, you don't have that decrease of accuracy the more trades you make.

Fernando Carreiro
4461
Fernando Carreiro  

mrluck012: ...

I think you need to pick up a few good books at the library on Mathematics, Statistics and Probability Theory and get back to basics and then "go back to the drawing board"!
Amir Yacoby
1226
Amir Yacoby  
Fernando Carreiro:
I think you need to pick up a few good books at the library on Mathematics, Statistics and Probability Theory and get back to basics and then "go back to the drawing board"!

good advice
12
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