Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Something Interesting in Financial Video September 2013
newdigital, 2013.09.17 07:20
10. The US Economy in the past was referred to as an Industrial Economy,
now it is referred to more as a ________________ Economy.
Using RSI for Intraday, momemtum and swing trading.
Indicators: Relative Strength Index (RSI)
newdigital, 2013.08.07 12:55
Relative Strength Index or RSI is the
most popular indicator used in Forex trading. It is an oscillator
indicator which oscillates between 0 -100. The RSI is a trend following
indicator. It indicates the strength of the trend, values above 50 indicate a bullish trend while values below 50 indicate bearish Forex trend.
The RSI measures momentum of a currency.
The centerline for the RSI is 50,crossover of the centerline indicate shifts from bullish to bearish and vice versa.
Above 50, the buyers have greater momentum than the
sellers and price of a currency will keep going up as long as RSI stays
Below 50, the sellers have greater momentum than the
buyers and price of a currency will keep going downwards as long as RSI
stays below 50.
In the example above, when the RSI is below 50, the
price kept moving in a downward trend. The price continues to move down
as long as RSI was below 50. When the RSI moved above 50 it showed that
the momentum had changed from sell to buy and that the downtrend had
When the RSI moved to above 50 the price started to
move upwards and the trend changed from bearish to bullish. The price
continued to move upwards and the RSI remained above 50 afterwards.
From the example above, when the trend was bullish
sometimes the RSI would turn downwards but it would not go below 50,
this shows that these temporary moves are just retracements because
during all these time the price trend was generally upwards. As long as
RSI does not move to below 50 the trend remains intact. This is the
reason the 50 mark is used to demarcate the signal between bullish and
The RSI uses 14 day period as the default RSI period,
this is the period recommended by J Welles Wilders when he introduced
the RSI. Other common periods used by forex trader is the 9 and 25 day
The RSI period used depends on the time frame you are
using, if you are using day time frame the RSI 14 will represent 14
days, while if you use 1 hour the RSI 14 will represent 14 hours. For
our example we shall use 14 day moving average, but for your trading
you can substitute the day period with the time frame you are trading.
Center-line: The center-line for RSI
is 50. A value above 50 implies that a currency is in a bullish phase
as average gains are greater than average losses. Values below 50
indicate a bearish phase.
newdigital, 2013.08.07 13:15
RSI Indicator Divergence Trading Setups
Divergence is one of the trade setups used by Forex
traders. It involves looking at a chart and one more indicator. For our
example we shall use the RSI indicator.
To spot this setup find two chart points at which
price makes a new swing high or a new swing low but the RSI indicator
does not, indicating a divergence between price and momentum.
In the chart below we identify two chart points, point A and point B (swing highs)
Then using RSI indicator we check the highs made by the RSI, these are the highs that are directly below Chart points A and B.
We then draw one line on the chart and another line on the RSI indicator.
How to spot divergence
In order to spot divergence we look for the following:
First let us look at the illustrations of these terms
There are two types of divergence:
MACD, RSI, Stochastics - stock indicators
Indicators: Fibonacci retracement
newdigital, 2013.11.21 12:06
Fibonacci Retracements (based on stockcharts article)
Fibonacci Retracements are ratios used to identify potential reversal
levels. These ratios are found in the Fibonacci sequence. The most
popular Fibonacci Retracements are 61.8% and 38.2%. Note that 38.2% is
often rounded to 38% and 61.8 is rounded to 62%. After an advance,
chartists apply Fibonacci ratios to define retracement levels and
forecast the extent of a correction or pullback. Fibonacci Retracements
can also be applied after a decline to forecast the length of a counter
trend bounce. These retracements can be combined with other indicators
and price patterns to create an overall strategy.
This article is not designed to delve too deep into the mathematical
properties behind the Fibonacci sequence and Golden Ratio. There are
plenty of other sources for this detail. A few basics, however, will
provide the necessary background for the most popular numbers. Leonardo
Pisano Bogollo (1170-1250), an Italian mathematician from Pisa, is
credited with introducing the Fibonacci sequence to the West. It is as
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, 377, 610……
The sequence extends to infinity and contains many unique mathematical properties.
1.618 refers to the Golden Ratio or Golden Mean, also called Phi. The
inverse of 1.618 is .618. These ratios can be found throughout nature,
architecture, art and biology. In his book, Elliott Wave Principle,
Robert Prechter quotes William Hoffer from the December 1975 issue of
….the proportion of .618034 to 1 is the mathematical basis for the
shape of playing cards and the Parthenon, sunflowers and snail shells,
Greek vases and the spiral galaxies of outer space. The Greeks based
much of their art and architecture upon this proportion. They called it
the golden mean.
Retracement levels alert traders or investors of a potential trend
reversal, resistance area or support area. Retracements are based on the
prior move. A bounce is expected to retrace a portion of the prior
decline, while a correction is expected to retrace a portion of the
prior advance. Once a pullback starts, chartists can identify specific
Fibonacci retracement levels for monitoring. As the correction
approaches these retracements, chartists should become more alert for a
potential bullish reversal. Chart 1 shows Home Depot retracing around
50% of its prior advance.
The inverse applies to a bounce or corrective advance after a decline.
Once a bounce begins, chartists can identify specific Fibonacci
retracement levels for monitoring. As the correction approaches these
retracements, chartists should become more alert for a potential bearish
reversal. Chart 2 shows 3M (MMM) retracing around 50% of its prior
Keep in mind that these retracement levels are not hard reversal points.
Instead, they serve as alert zones for a potential reversal. It is at
this point that traders should employ other aspects of technical
analysis to identify or confirm a reversal. These may include
candlesticks, price patterns, momentum oscillators or moving averages.
The Fibonacci Retracements Tool at StockCharts shows four common
retracements: 23.6%, 38.2%, 50% and 61.8%. From the Fibonacci section
above, it is clear that 23.6%, 38.2% and 61.8% stem from ratios found
within the Fibonacci sequence. The 50% retracement is not based on a
Fibonacci number. Instead, this number stems from Dow Theory's assertion
that the Averages often retrace half their prior move.
Based on depth, we can consider a 23.6% retracement to be relatively shallow. Such retracements would be appropriate for flags
or short pullbacks. Retracements in the 38.2%-50% range would be
considered moderate. Even though deeper, the 61.8% retracement can be
referred to as the golden retracement. It is, after all, based on the
Shallow retracements occur, but catching these requires a closer watch
and quicker trigger finger. The examples below use daily charts covering
3-9 months. Focus will be on moderate retracements (38.2-50%) and
golden retracements (61.8%). In addition, these examples will show how
to combine retracements with other indicators to confirm a reversal.
Chart 3 shows Target (TGT) with a correction that retraced 38% of the
prior advance. This decline also formed a falling wedge, which is
typical for corrective moves. The combination raised the reversal alert.
Chaikin Money Flow turned positive as the stock surged in late June,
but this first reversal attempt failed. Yes, there will be failures. The
second reversal in mid July was successful. Notice that TGT gapped up,
broke the wedge trend line and Chaikin Money Flow turned positive (green
Chart 4 shows Petsmart (PETM) with a moderate 38% retracement and other
signals coming together. After declining in September-October, the stock
bounced back to around 28 in November. In addition to the 38%
retracement, notice that broken support turned into resistance in this
area. The combination served as an alert for a potential reversal.
William %R was trading above -20% and overbought as well. Subsequent
signals affirmed the reversal. First, Williams %R moved back below -20%.
Second, PETM formed a rising flag and broke flag support with a sharp
decline the second week of December.
Chart 4 shows Pfizer (PFE) bottoming near the 62% retracement level.
Prior to this successful bounce, there was a failed bounce near the 50%
retracement. The successful reversal occurred with a hammer on high
volume and follow through with a breakout a few days later.
Chart 5 shows JP Morgan (JPM) topping near the 62% retracement level.
The surge to the 62% retracement was quite strong, but resistance
suddenly appeared with a reversal confirmation coming from MACD
(5,35,5). The red candlestick and gap down affirmed resistance near the
62% retracement. There was a two day bounce back above 44.5, but this
bounce quickly failed as MACD moved below its signal line (red dotted
Fibonacci retracements are often used to identify the end of a
correction or a counter-trend bounce. Corrections and counter-trend
bounces often retrace a portion of the prior move. While short 23.6%
retracements do occur, the 38.2-61.8% covers the more possibilities
(with 50% in the middle). This zone may seem big, but it is just a
reversal alert zone. Other technical signals are needed to confirm a
reversal. Reversals can be confirmed with candlesticks, momentum indicators, volume or chart patterns. In fact, the more confirming factors the more robust the signal.
newdigital, 2014.01.31 11:05
The 3 Step Retracement Strategy (adapted from dailyfx article)
Find A TrendlineBefore we can consider trading a pricing swing, we need to first be able
to find market direction as well as support or resistance. This issue
can be solved by creating a trendline. These areas can be found on a
chart by either connecting to highs or lows, then extrapolating their
direction on the chart. In a downtrend traders should look for price
action to be declining under trendline resistance, while in uptrend
prices should be advancing above trendline support.
Once market direction and trendline resistance is identified, we need to
identify an area to enter into the market. This can be done by finding a
confluence of resistance using a Fibonacci retracement. These
retracement values are displayed as a percentage of the previous move as
measured from swing high/low in a downtrend. Much like our previously
drawn trendline, these retracements can pinpoint areas where the market
may turn. Traders should look to see where these two values converge and
then plan to enter the market.
Now that we have a plan to enter the market on a price swing, traders
will need to identify when it is time to exit the market. This is always
the third and final step of any successful strategy! In order to manage
risk, traders should first consider where to set a stop order. In a
downtrend like the USDJPY daily chart, traders should consider placing
this value above resistance. On the chart below stop orders have been
placed outside of resistance, above our current trendline and previous
Full text of video :
Basic Set-ups and Stop Placement
newdigital, 2014.03.29 12:05
USDJPY Fundamentals (based on dailyfx article)
Forex Trading Video: Yen Crosses and S&P 500 Checked Lower, Break Risk? :
newdigital, 2014.03.29 12:33
• We look at the temptations, hazards and making the right calls with GBPUSD and EURUSD examples
A trade that has been put through the ringer for its fundamental,
technical and market conditions merits should skew probabilities in our
favor. When we make exceptions, our strategy starts breaking down.
Tantalizing technical setups with no fundamental chance or event-driven
volatility with no definable guidance in price cater to our emotions
rather than our bottom line. But sticking to the plan isn't just for the
pre-flight check. Many will alter the plan mid-trade or decide to
ignore changing circumstances to revert to hope. Hope is not a trading
plan. We look at how sticking to the plan both before and during a trade
is important using GBPUSD and EURUSD examples in the weekend Strategy
newdigital, 2014.03.29 18:43