Something Interesting in Financial Video March 2015 - page 2

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newdigital, 2015.02.28 16:51

EUR/USD forecast for the week of March 2, 2015, Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair fell hard during the course of the week, closing towards the bottom of the range. That being the case, looks as if the EUR/USD pair will probably fall from there, heading to the 1.11 handle next, and then the 1.10 level. Any rally this point time should be a nice selling opportunity and we believe that the 1.15 level is massively resistive. We like rallies the show signs of resistance, as it offers value in the US dollar. If we break down below the 1.10 level, this market could very well fall to the parity level next.



 

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newdigital, 2015.03.07 09:40

AUD/USD Threatens Bullish Momentum- NZD/USD Carves Top Ahead of RBNZ (based on dailyfx article)

  • AUD/USD Outperforms to Retain Range- China Event Risk in Focus.
  • NZD/USD Retains Bearish RSI Momentum Ahead of RBNZ Meeting.
  • USDOLLAR Rallies to Fresh High on Strong Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP).


  • NZD/USD appears to have a carved a near-term top as it continues to come off of former support zone around 0.7590 (38.2% expansion) to 0.7620 (50% expansion); downside targets remain favored as the RSI retains the bearish momentum.
  • Despite the verbal intervention, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s (RBNZ) forward-guidance for monetary policy may heavily influence the near-term outlook for NZD/USD.
  • Close below 0.7330 (61.8% expansion) to 0.7340 (23.6% retracement) may open the door for fresh lows.



 

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Something Interesting in Financial Video October 2013

newdigital, 2013.10.01 15:39

Choosing a Forex Broker: Evaluating Customer Service

Learn how to evaluate the customer service offered by various fx (aka foreign exchange) brokers on the web.




 

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newdigital, 2015.03.12 07:13

NZD/USD Retains Bearish Momentum Ahead of RBNZ- 0.7175 in Focus (based on dailyfx article)

  • NZD/USD Outlook Hinges on RBNZ; Forward-Guidance in Focus.
  • Gold (XAUUSD)$1,155 Support at Risk as Bearish RSI Momentum Gathers Pace.


  • Even though the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is widely expected to keep the cash rate at 3.50%, NZD/USD may face fresh 2015 lows should the central bank further delay its normalization cycle and implement a dovish twist to the forward-guidance for monetary policy.
  • As the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retains the bearish momentum, a break of the February low (0.7175) would expose 0.7140-50 (78.6% expansion).



 

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Something Interesting in Financial Video September 2013

newdigital, 2013.09.19 08:00

120. Economic Releases that Move the US Dollar

As you can probably imagine, we could spend many lessons and multiple hours going over each of the economic indicators that affect the price of the US Dollar. It is for this reason, that before getting into any of the actual indicators, I wanted to give everyone an overview of the broad things that move the market. As we have discussed in previous lessons the two broad categories that pretty much everything that moves the forex market fits into, are trade flows and capital flows, as covered in module 3 of this course.

Once you have an understanding of this, all that is necessary to understand how economic numbers move the dollar, is to understand which numbers are important to the market at the time, whether those numbers fit into the trade flows or capital flows category, and how they should affect the dollar as a result.

As we learned in module 8 of our basics of trading course, how the market reacts to economic releases is generally determined by two factors:

1. How important the market considers a particular release to be.

2. How close to market estimates the number comes in at. Remember that markets anticipate news, so generally if an economic release comes out as expected, there is very little if any market reaction to that release.

How important the market considers a particular economic release to be, is something that changes over time depending on what is happening from a US Dollar fundamentals standpoint. If there are worries that the economy is going into recession, then the market is going to be extra sensitive to any numbers, such as non farm payrolls and consumer spending, which may provide early warning signs that this is the case. Conversely, if the economy is heating up and the markets are worried that inflation may become a problem, then the most market moving numbers may be price data releases, such as the CPI and the PPI. For your reference, according to Dailyfx.com the most market moving indicators for 2007, in order of importance were:

1. Non Farm Payrolls
2. FOMC Releases
3. Retail Sales
4. ISM Manufacturing
5. Inflation
6. Producer Price Index
7. The Trade Balance
8. Existing Home Sales
9. Foreign Purchases of US Treasuries (TIC Data)

We have discussed most of these indicators already, and for those which we have not, a quick google search, and review of the indicator in the context of whether it fits into trade flows or capital flows, should answer the question of why they move the market.

Although I am probably a little biased since I used to work with the people who run the site, I am a very big fan of Dailyfx.com as the place where I go to find out what economic data is due for release, and for commentary on the number after the release. They have a great global calendar which you can find at the top of the site as well as tons of both technical and fundamental commentary on everything that affects the US Dollar and forex market in general.

For this lesson specifically, if you click the calendar button at the top of the site you will see they have all of the economic data releases from the major countries of the world with the time of the release, the previous number, the forecasted number and the actual number which is updated after the release. You will also notice here they have links for the more important numbers giving a definition of the release, the relative importance of the release, and the latest news release relating to that release.

If you click back to the homepage of the site you will see lots of fx related reports which the Dailyfx staff puts out throughout the day. Two of my favorite reports are the Daily Fundamental report by Kathy lien, and the US Open Market Points by Boris Schlossberg which you can find in the middle of the page.

As we discussed in module 8 of our basics of trading course, the best way to get a feel for how economic numbers affect the market, and which numbers are in focus, is to start following the market on a daily basis and seeing how it reacts to various news events. As this is the case, I highly recommend following the commentary on Dailyfx.com as well as the forex commentary on InformedTrades.com, and start putting your analysis to practice on your real time demo accounts. If you have not registered for a free realtime demo account I have included a link above this video where you can do so.




 

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newdigital, 2015.03.15 07:11

Nikkei forecast for the week of March 16, 2015, Technical Analysis

The Nikkei had a very positive week over the last five sessions, pulling back to the ¥18,500 level. By doing so, we found enough buyers to turn things back around and form a positive candle. With that being the case, the market looks like it’s ready to go to the ¥20,000 level, which of course has been our longer-term target yet again. We believe the pullbacks continue to offer value, and that ultimately we will go even higher than the ¥20,000 level. The ¥18,000 level below that is massively supportive, as it was once resistive. We are not interested in selling this market until we break down way below there. We do not see that happening anytime soon, so we will simply stay on the sidelines if we pullback, which of course offers a bit of support at various levels below. We think that the buyers will look to take advantage of the liquidity offered by the Bank of Japan going forward, and will do so in the form of buying Japanese stocks.

The Japanese yen has been looming large in the equation lately, and as it loses value, it’s very likely that the Nikkei will continue to respond positively to doing so. We believe that the Nikkei will not only a ¥20,000, but probably levels well be on that given enough time. We believe this is more or less a long-term buy-and-hold type situation, and with that we are essentially in the “buy only” camp. We have no scenario in which we are willing to sell the Nikkei as long as we are above at least ¥18,000, and probably even ¥17,000. If we break down below there, then of course a lot of things have changed, but ultimately it would take a significant amount of change in the attitude of the market to have that happen at this point in time. With that, we are bullish and remain so for the foreseeable future as we can’t even seem to hang onto losses for any real length of time at this point.



 

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newdigital, 2015.03.15 07:14

DAX forecast for the week of March 16, 2015, Technical Analysis

The DAX broke higher during the course of the week, as we cleared to fresh new highs. That being the case, the DAX will offer buying opportunities every time it pulls back, and that’s exactly how we are going to approach this market. We believe that there is massive support below for this market, which of course will offer plenty of buying opportunities below. Ultimately though, we believe that looking for value as the best way to play this marketplace. We are overbought, so being patient will be necessary for those of you who are not already long.



 

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newdigital, 2015.03.15 07:17

NASDAQ forecast for the week of March 16, 2015, Technical Analysis

The NASDAQ as you can see fell hard during the course of the week, as the 5000 level offered enough resistance the previous week. Ultimately, we feel that the market should continue to find support though at lower levels. As you can see on the chart, the 4800 level was previous resistance, so it should now be support. If we can get some type of supportive candle, we would be a buyer in that general vicinity, and would also buy supportive candles all the way down to the 4600 level.



 

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newdigital, 2015.03.15 07:20

S&P 500 forecast for the week of March 16, 2015, Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 broke down during the course of the week, as you can see on the chart. However, we think that the real support is closer to the 2000 level, so having said that we are bearish for the short-term but recognize that longer-term traders will have the ability to buy supportive candles below. Those supportive candles will give us an opportunity to take advantage of the longer-term uptrend, which of course has been very steady over the last several months. We have no interest whatsoever in selling this market.



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