"Look, for example, at this elegant little experiment. A rat was put in a T-shaped maze with a few morsels of food placed on either the far right or left side of the enclosure. The placement of the food is randomly determined, but the dice is rigged: over the long run, the food was placed on the left side sixty per cent of the time. How did the rat respond? It quickly realized that the left side was more rewarding. As a result, it always went to the left, which resulted in a sixty percent success rate. The rat didn't strive for perfection. It didn't search for a Unified Theory of the T-shaped maze, or try to decipher the disorder. Instead, it accepted the inherent uncertainty of the reward and learned to settle for the best possible alternative.
The experiment was then repeated with Yale undergraduates. Unlike the rat, their swollen brains stubbornly searched for the elusive pattern that determined the placement of the reward. They made predictions and then tried to learn from their prediction errors. The problem was that there was nothing to predict: the randomness was real. Because the students refused to settle for a 60 percent success rate, they ended up with a 52 percent success rate. Although most of the students were convinced they were making progress towards identifying the underlying algorithm, they were actually being outsmarted by a rat."
P64 HOW WE DECIDE (italics added)
"Now, 2 patterns of market behavior happen on a regular basis:
1) the price breaks to new high's (or low's)
2) the price reverses from new high's (or low's)
They happen regardless of time frame (with the obvious limitations explained above)
They are phenomena that can be exploited without the fear if found out by others, that they might cease to exist." - H. Rearden
1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20): This is OPPORTUNITY
WHY ISN'T EVERYBODY DOING IT?
Most of you know I catch a lot of flak on my forums because SOME PEOPLE don't like the way I post.
One worn out argument that is used repeatedly is, "If this is so (simple, great, profitable, ), then why isn't everybody doing it?"
Simple answer is because SOYLENT GREEN is people!
We all know exercise is great, but how many actually exercise?
We all know smoking is bad, but how many do it anyway?
We all know which foods are bad for our health, but how many eat those foods?
We all know that we should save for our future and spend less than we earn but who does that?
The list is almost endless.
As long as there are people, there will always be some STUPID people and some smart people making STUPID decisions, where STUPID is defined as knowing better but acting otherwise.
Meanwhile, the RATS are still beating the Yale students.
PLEASE DO NOT PM ME WITH QUESTIONS ABOUT TRADING, INDICATORS, CODING, ETC... Post your questions in the forum. Thank you.
1) price within 20 pips of the daily low - that is OPPORTUNITY
2) red candle closes
3) green candle closes - note the high price of the green candle.
4) enter long at the green candle's high price
5) STOP LOSS IS 10 PIPS
6) Take whatever profit you can.
7) If the rules do not mention it, then it is of no concern.
The important part is to enter WITHIN 20 pips of the daily low. The RAT REVERSAL is only one entry method.
"The technique is so simple that just several lessons (or a few pages of explanations) cover it all. Now what? Now the student has to practice, practice and practice again to understand what he had been taught. The teacher DOES know much more than the student, but his understanding can't be "passed", "transferred" or taught in any way -- not even by reading books."
to be quite honest I was going to pm you
I have to say, I found the website you posted most of your indicators on. in those mega packs
but I was looking for your CCFpCL if you wouldn't mind pointing me in the right direction. or naming which multi pack its in, i couldn't find it. Is it also on kreslik? I personally love the yale vs rats theory and I agree 100%. In my opinion, looking for a holy grail method has become the trap behind the cheese.
Downloading 1000 pack indicators and trying them all is a trap. I give great respect to your trading methodology, simple is always better and trading basic probabilities is the only sensible method.
Thanks a lot sir,
I'm sorry, its the bar stats item i'm looking for
the one you have counting the numbers of candles in a row for each color
that is brilliant, and still. so simple
1) Price within 20 pips of the daily low (ClLo < 20) - that is OPPORTUNITY
Trading is GUESSING. If it wasn't, you wouldn't need a STOP LOSS.
THINK ABOUT IT!!
MAXIMUM RISK = 2% * ACCOUNT BALANCE.
STOP LOSS = 10 PIPS. (INCLUDING SPREAD)
POSITION SIZE = RISK / STOP LOSS.
1) To trade like a RAT is to ALWAYS trade in ONE DIRECTION - either LONG or SHORT. Once you pick a "team", you can't switch.
2) The "within 20 pips of the daily high/low" is the BEST possible entry to get the maximum run BUT the RAT REVERSAL entry works ANYWHERE on the chart.
CCFpCL is not my indicator. I think you can find it on the mql4 forum.
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