EUR/GBP - page 4
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EURGBP still in demand but runs into more sell interest
The pair has been quick to benefit from a combo of EUR strength/GBP weakness
The early Carney-staying led demand for GBP saw the pair test bids/support around 0.8950 only to fail and after chewing through good offers/res at 0.8980 we're now facing a similar challenge into 0.9000
Currently 0.8987 from 0.8994 the overall demand is helping put a lid on GBPUSD but EURUSD still finding it tough to make progress through 1.1000 . EURJPY also capping above 115.50 so the battle continues.
AFEX: British Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Faces One More Big Move Lower
Pound Sterling is still trading within the same range it has been stuck in for two weeks, but one more big step lower remains possible warns technical analyst Lucy Lillicrap at AFEX Markets Plc.
Sterling has taken a beating against the Euro on Tuesday November 1st - but what is notable it remains unchanged against the Dollar.
The EUR/USD has surged by the same amount as EUR/GBP which confirms we could reasonably attribute the move to Euro strength and Dollar weakness.
It would appear that Donald Trump has closed the gap on Hillary Clinton in the race for the Whitehouse which brings in doubt a December interest rate rise, which in turn has seen the Dollar lose support.
The Euro appears to be the safe-haven in this dynamic.
This could be the end of the GBP/EUR's multi-week period of stability and analyst Lucy Lillicrap at AFEX Markets plc in London tells us that the UK currency is likely to take one more tumble lower.
With regards to both GBP/USD and GBP/EUR, “at least one more sell-off is readable here before the current negative trend completes,” says Lillicrap in a weekly briefing to clients.
However, “no direct re-test of prior notable (Dec 2008) 1.0200 area lows is currently favoured.”
Instead Lillicrap’s projections suggest an interim range now exists either side of 1.1000 with resistance at 1.1250 but support also extending to 1.0750.
“Further weakness may well unfold in coming days with 1.1075 support still vulnerable initially (targeting 1.0925 next once broken) but expect stability to return thereafter as this holding pattern takes shape,” says Lillicrap.
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British Pound Surges v Euro, Dollar as Bank of England Delivers Record Growth Upgrade
The British Pound has shot to its best levels in weeks against hte Euro and Dollar as the Bank of England votes unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged and upgrade their growth forecasts.
Pound Sterling charged higher as soon as the news was announced that the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee had voted unanimously to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.25%.
There were some expectations for a split in the vote.
The outcome betrays a Bank whose next move may actually be to raise interest rates.
Recovering British Pound Strikes Best Exchange Rate Against Euro in a Month
Pound Sterling was the best performing currency in the G10 complex for the week ending November 4th. Can we expect further appreciation for the GBP/EUR exchange rate.
The Pound to Euro exchange rate is quoted at 1.1234 at the weekend having come off a multi-week high at 1.1290 on Friday.
Those using Pound Sterling to buy Euros are therefore witnessing the best exchange rates from which to transact since October the 7th.
Our algorithms concerning the kind of exchange rates you could expect to make international payments with suggest that from a spot market rate of 1.1263 you are looking at rates ranging between 1.0841 through to more competitive quotes at 1.1133.
The Euro to Pound rate is meanwhile quoted at 0.8902 with retail rates ranging from 0.8587 through to 0.8818.
More Gains for British Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Forecast Short-Term, US Election is Key Hurdle
Pound Sterling trades in the red against the Euro with US election headlines dominating but studies suggest the UK currency should continue to appreciate in the near-term.
A soft start to the new week for the UK currency as markets get the hint from weekend newsflow that Brexit is still going to happen despite the previous week's High Court ruling on Article 50.
A senior Government source has told Sky News on Monday a first draft of a bill to trigger Article 50 is already being prepared.
The source said it was "sensible" for the Government to draw up a bill now in order to keep Theresa May's Brexit timetable on track should it be forced to grant a vote on activating Article 50 through Parliament.
We warned last week the Article 50 ruling only layers more uncertainty on the Pound and should the Government fail to push a bill through Parliament there is the chance of a General Election taking place in 2017.
Indeed, senior Conservative party member Jeremy Hunt has said over the weekend that PM Theresa May will call an election should Parliamentarians vote down the necessary legislation required to trigger Article 50.
The prospect of Sterling rallying with the threat of another general election hanging in the air is minimal.
The dynamics surrounding the US Presidential Election are also key to Sterling's near-term outlook.
Note that the US Dollar is in demand at the start of the new week on news that the FBI is dropping its investigation into candidate Clinton's use of a private email server.
The move appears to be, on balance, negative for the Euro which could assist GBP/EUR higher. "Markets are likely to remove some of the risk premium taken as a precaution against a Trump victory now that Hilary Clinton will not be charged over her use of a private email server," says Ric Spooner at CMC Markets.
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The British Pound to Recover to 1.25 Against Euro say BNP Paribas
Pound Sterling retains much of the advance made in the first week of November and a number of analysts we follow say the outlook for the GBP/EUR pair now rests between neutral and bullish.
There remains a chance Sterling continues to appreciate against the Euro over coming days courtesy of the positive momentum provided by the Bank of England’s recent decision to turn neutral on policy.
On November 3rd GBP/EUR rallied on the news and broke a key resistance point at 1.1261 from where the ascent stalled and quickly reversed – this price action is likely to disappoint those out there hoping for yet higher exchange rates.
Indeed, the exchange rate is more or less where it was in early October - consider that GBP/EUR started the month at 1.15 and the task of just how much work lies ahead of Sterling becomes clear.
“For now, we remain in a correction process, with divergence in daily studies still unwinding indicating the potential for sideways trading,” says Robin Wilkin at Lloyds Bank.
That said, Wilkin says a break of daily trend resistance at 1.1306 could reignite upward momentum, opening up a deeper climb to 1.1429.
Lloyds are looking for interim support levels at 1.1142 and 1.1050.
“It appears that the squeeze on short-GBP positions that we have anticipated has accelerated,” says James Rossiter, an analyst with TD Securities in London. “Looking forward, we continue to see upside near-term potential for Sterling to rally against major currencies.”
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British Pound To Euro Forecast: Investors Find The Best GBP / EUR Exchange Rate Since October 2016
Foreign exchange markets saw the British pound to euro conversion rate achieve its best conversion in one month today after continued US election volatility. We examine the latest euro-related fx forecasts targeting the sterling and the US dollar in the short, medium and long-term GBP/EUR forex outlooks
The British pound continued to perform strongly against the euro on Thursday afternoon, extending its daily gains and nearing the key level of 1.15 for the first time since early-October.
Sterling was strengthened by ongoing hopes of a UK-US trade deal, as well as suggestions from analysts that post-Brexit UK would no longer be the outlier economy if protectionist populism continues to increase in other developed nations.
GBP/EUR received a strong boost following the election results after markets focussed on comments during the campaign from Trump that the UK would be at the front of the queue for a trade deal should he get elected.
Initially dismissed due to the belief that it was impossible for the Republican to clinch victory, hopeful investors are re-examining his claims.
Speculation has been bolstered by remarks made by Trump’s trade advisor, Dan DiMicco, who has said recently of the UK that;
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The British Pound up Against Euro as Trump Heralds an Easier Brexit
Pound Sterling is benefiting from a major rerating of global bond markets and the notion that a trade deal with the US has strengthened the UK’s hand ahead of Brexit negotiations.
The number one reasons the British Pound has surged against the Euro lies with a sudden rise in developed market bond yields.
Investors are demanding a premium for longer-dated debt as they anticipate greater inflation, largely on the back of Trump’s promised fiscal stimulus agenda.
That the Pound was already far below where it should have been based on bond yield differentials has caught market attention and they are quickly racing to reprice the currency higher.
There is another reason markets are bullish on Sterling, and this rests with the potential implications presented by the Trump victory on a post-Brexit Britain.
“Watch for a US / UK trade deal, President-elect Trump's astonishing victory in all probability will give UK pro-Brexitors an ‘ace up their sleeve’”, says Peter Rosenstreich, head of market strategy at Swissquote Research.
Current negotiations between the EU and the UK have been relatively deadlocked with both parties’ leverages being relatively balanced.
That is because in reality both economies need each other equally (despite occasional hostile rhetoric).
“Yet, the scale could be tipped in the UK’s favour with the inclusion of outside trade agreements,” says Rosenstreich.
President Obama, prior to the EU-referendum, indicated that the UK would not get preferential treatment and would have to go to the back of the line.
“How things have changed. On the campaign trail Trump was extremely supportive of Brexit and quick to provide himself accolades for calling the historical outcome. In addition, consistently drawn parallels between his campaigns and the Brexit referendum indicate deep support for UK independence,” says Rosenstreich.
News has also emerged that US vice president-elect, Mike Pence, called Boris Johnson on Thursday night.
Sources close to the UK foreign secretary told the BBC the two men had spoken at about 2100 GMT for ten minutes about building a strong UK/US relationship.
The BBC understands it was Mr Pence's first call to an overseas politician.
Pro-Brexitor Nigel Farage was the highest ranking UK political figure to have shown his support for Trump.
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