EUR/GBP - page 10
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I think so too. Next target is around 0.3250.
Pound to Euro: Forecast for the Next Five Days
The exchange rate looks increasingly unable to break above 1.20 thanks to the resistance not far above in the form of the 200-day moving average and the R1 monthly pivot, a line used by traders to indicate a barrier level on a price chart.
The pair is settling into a tight range as volatility fades, as shown by the line of narrow ‘doji-like’ candles.
A doji is a name given to a day with a very narrow range from the art of Japanese candlestick analysis.
Sometimes several dojis in a row can forebode imminent weakness for an asset appearing just before the start of a sharp move lower.
For confirmation of a bearish reversal, however, we would ideally wish to see a break below the trendline from the October flash crash lows.
Such a break would be confirmed by a break below 1.1650, with a target at 1.1425.
Until such a breakdown is confirmed, however, the uptrend remains technically intact.
However, to confirm a continuation of the bull trend higher, we would ideally wish to see a break clearly above 1.2100 and the double layer of resistance, confirmed by a move above 1.2200, and then to a target at 1.2300.
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Less Bearish For Pound to Euro After Spate of Terror Attacks
A spate of jihadist terror attacks in Germany and Turkey have led to a slight recovery in GBP/EUR.
The Euro weakened marginally following the attacks as they raise the possibility of increasing support for far-right, nationalist, anti-EU, political parties who could gain power in on of 2017's many elections and begin a breakup of the EU.
The Pound, meanwhile, could benefit from the outlook as it will not be so alone if other countries in the EU also wish to tighten up their borders and challenge the EU's cherished principle of freedom of movement.
British Pound vs Dollar, Euro: The Only Way is Up in 2017 Forecasts Nordea
After one of the worst years in its history, the British Pound could make a comeback in 2017 according to Nordea Market’s FX Strategist Aurelija Augulyte.
“2016 was a disaster for the GBP, as the unexpected Brexit vote knocked it off most since the Lehman crisis,” she writes. "Next year it will stage a comeback.”
On the surface the currency appears to have little going for it: Brexit uncertainty remains unresolved, inflation is rising, wages and employment have reversed their previous uptrends and GDP growth is set to stall, according to most uber-pundits, experts, and bank governors…
Yet, Augulyte remains unabashedly positive about the prospects for the UK currency.
As far as the biggest bugbear goes – Brexit risk, she actually sees the worst as over.
In October, the markets priced in a worst case “Hard” Brexit scenario on the day after May’s “Brexit means Brexit” speech at the Conservative Party conference but Augulyte believes the currency has established a baseline.
With talk of parliamentary involvement, the imposition of constitutional law and creative thinking in relation to transitional arrangements she sees a greater possibility of a “Soft” rather than “Hard” Brexit now.
She also sees increasing political risk in the Eurozone – and Trumpomania - as overshadowing Brexit uncertainty in 2017, which will in all probability become ‘old news’.
“Now that the “hard” Brexit has become a market’s baseline, should we shift towards a softer form of Brexit – avoiding an exit “cliff” with a transition agreement – the markets will be relieved. It could happen as PM May will deliver the Brexit plan before actually triggering Article 50,” says the strategist.
But what of the Pound’s other shibboleths?
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EUR/GBP couldn’t break below 0.8350 after all. I’m surprised at such a large movement at this time of the year.
GBP EUR Slumps On Post-Brexit UK-EU Trade Deal Veto Concerns
The Pound to Euro exchange rate could be on track to suffer more losses before the end of 2016 as Thursday saw the pair sold off despite quieter pre-holiday trade.
Demand for the Pound was weakened significantly throughout the day by reports that a post-Brexit UK-EU trade deal could be easily vetoed by an EU member state.
As a result, GBP/EUR fell to a new weekly low of 1.1760 and the pair could easily continue falling on Friday if Britain’s final Q3 growth results fall short of expectations.
Although the Pound Euro exchange rate rebounded from its two-week low a better-than-expected GfK consumer confidence index was unable to shore up the pairing for long.
While confidence picked up modestly in December this is not expected to last, given that inflation expectations point towards a greater squeeze on earnings in the coming year.
Demand for the Euro remained heightened, meanwhile, thanks to hopes that Italy will be able to recapitalise the ailing Monte dei Paschi and reinvigorate its banking sector.
GBP/EUR has tumbled since Wednesday as concerning UK factors such as worse-than-expected borrowing stats and Brexit concerns weigh on GBP.
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Euro To British Pound (EUR GBP) Exchange Rate Appreciates As Italy Prepares To Bail Out Banking Sector
The EUR to GBP exchange rate continued to rise today as Sterling sentiment was pressured by a new trade ruling from the European Court of Justice (ECJ).
With the mood towards the Pound remaining decidedly bearish the EUR GBP exchange rate extended its gains further ahead of the weekend.
The finalised third quarter UK GDP report encouraged further selling of the Pound, revealing that the current account deficit had widened markedly in the quarter.
Given the softness of Sterling this exacerbated concerns over the potential detrimental impact of the Brexit vote on the health of the UK economy and could be seen to raise the odds of the Bank of England engaging in further policy easing.
EUR GBP continued to trend upwards on Friday after the ECJ made a landmark ruling concerning a free trade deal with Singapore.
Eleanor Sharpston, the European Court of Justice Advocate General ruled that in order to ratify the trade deal it must be agreed upon by all member states, with a total of 38 national and regional parliaments being required to vote on the deal before it can be finalised.
This could complicate any of Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans for any trade deal with the EU once Britain leaves as the deal is likely to face the same process and caused further concerns for investors that a new deal could take years to pass through each parliament.
Markets are also likely to remember the recent Canada-EU trade deal that almost collapsed after a region of Belgium opposed it back in October and may fear a similar situation will happen to a Brexit trade deal.