EUR/GBP - page 6
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
GBP: Contagious Populism Will Benefit The GBP; Sell EUR/GBP Into 2017
Brexit and the election of Donald Trump could help bolster nationalistic and antiglobalization parties elsewhere by lending legitimacy to their causes. With major elections coming up in France, Holland and Germany next year and the possibility of early elections in Italy, investors will be on tenterhooks, as anti-globalization movements could further undermine public support for the European project at a time that the Eurozone is still recovering from the peripheral crisis. It is not our central scenario that right wing parties will take power in any of these countries next year.
However, after the surprise victories of the Brexit camp and Trump, investors are likely to demand greater risk premium ahead of these votes.
We think this could lead to further reversal of the rally in EUR/GBP this year and would recommend selling the cross at the current level.
source
Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Slides Ahead of Autumn Statement but Forecasters Remain Bullish
Pound Sterling has shrunk in value in the run-up to the Autumn Statement but analysts say it is still too early to call an end to the short-term recovery rally we have seen over recent weeks. But how high can GBP/EUR go?
GBP is seen struggling ahead of Wednesday's Autumn statement as traders pare back exposure to the currency in the event of another politically-inspired bombshell being dropped.
Sterling has gone from hero to zero in the short space of 24 hours having been the G10's best performer on the 21st November to the club's worst performer on Tuesday
read more
British Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Testing 1.18 as Bulls Eye September Highs
Pound Sterling has gone higher against the Euro over recent hours after traders welcomed Chancellor Hammond's Autumn Statement - just how far can the recovering UK currency go?
GBP traded to its best exchange rate against the EUR since mid-September with 1.18 on the mid markets being achieved in the hours following the Autumn Statement.
However, the initial tests of 1.18 have been brief affairs with the pair slipping below here soon after confirming there appears to be a strong offer on Sterling in this level.
The November rally has been quite impressive with GBP/EUR recovering from lows at 1.1050.
The pair has since broken above the 100 day moving average in a sign that momentum is shifting towards Sterling across all the major timeframes and advocating for an extension of the move higher.
Karen Jones at Commerzbank today tells clients the pair may still reach the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the move down that started in May at 1.1972, above which lies the 1.1994 September high.
Jones is looking for some kind of stabilisation to set in over the short-term and any Sterling weakness is expected to be weak.
As Sterling heads above 1.18 on the mid market, we see international payment rates on bank accounts edge towards the 1.1390-1.1480 region while independent specialists are quoting in the 1.16-1.1680 zone.
"Overall Sterling is now at a 2 month peak against a basket of currencies, suggesting investors weren’t particularly bothered by the flaccid future growth, expanding deficit and rising national debt outlined by Philip Hammond and the OBR during yesterday’s Autumn Statement," says Connor Campbell at Spreadex.
read more
Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Rally Built on Sand
The British Pound's recent rally against the Euro may be a fragile one destined to succumb to the longer-term downtrend that has characterised 2016.
Sterling has had the better of the Euro for two months now.
On Thursday, November 24 the GBP to EUR conversion rode to 1.18 for the first time in two months before failing as a wall of selling pressure lay in wait at these rarified heights.
Nevertheless, a couple of bad days do not a trend make and gains are expected by some to extend near-term.
“We see the GBP maintaining its near-term outperformance,” argue foreign exchange strategists at Morgan Stanley in a briefing to clients following the UK's Autumn Statement which saw Sterling bounce on a mixture of productivity-boosting spending pledges.
“The market is short GBP, so any rises in the gilt yield on larger expected government borrowing may help GBP too. Generally, GBP has become sensitive to bond curve steepness, helping to explain why it has outperformed in the broad USD rally,” says Morgan Stanley’s Sheena Shah.
read more
Euro To Pound Sterling Exchange Rate: Lower Say 2016/2017 Forecasts On Euro-Zone Political Risk
EUR/GBP Exchange Rate Holds Near Lowest Conversion Level in Two Months as Foreign Exchange Markets Eye EZ Politics
Foreign exchange investors saw the British pound to euro conversion rate slip on Friday having strengthened after this week's Autumn Statement
The common European currency is seen losing ground in the upcoming weeks, with the EUR/GBP exchange rate forecast to fall as much as 10 big figures to the £0.75 region as political risk and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary easing is expected to undermine the fundamental strength of the euro.
The political risk in Europe is related to a number of events including the Italian referendum on its constitution early in December, the French presidential election as well as German elections next year.
"These events could well create considerable political uncertainty in the Eurozone, particularly if anti-euro and populist parties were to gain power in a major country such as France," Richard Falkenhall from SEB Bank wrote in a note on Thursday.
On the flip side, GBP suffered heavily after June's referendum in which the UK opted to leave the European Union.
Despite its recent recovery, sterling's risk premium is still discounting the high probability of a hard Brexit.
Given the present EUR/GBP trading around £0.85, SEB Bank sees the EUR/GBP exchange rate exposed to substantial downside risk, especially if political events in the Eurozone trigger increased risk premium for the euro.
read more
The British Pound to Euro Exchange Rate Outlook: Still Looking Bullish
GBP/EUR may be set for more gains after UK Q3 data came out strong and a plethora of elections in Europe may highlight threats of popular disaffection with the European Union.
Pound Sterling continues to supported by surprisingly good data.
Last week’s Q3 GDP revisions showed no change from the positive preliminary estimates, helping to support confidence further.
Whilst growth remains lopsidedly weighted in favour of Services and out of favour with Construction, the fact that Business Investment beat expectations was reassuring to those who had feared companies would put off investment decisions in the wake of the uncertainty created by Brexit.
One proviso is that analysts are cautioning not to read too much into the data, with both Markit and Capital Economics making the point that Q3 investment decisions may have already been taken and the real hit to investment is likely to come after Article 50 is triggered, however, overall it cannot be argued the data is weak.
This seems to indicate GBP/EUR has the potential for more growth, especially given how negative and uncertain the outlook is for the Euro - particularly in the sphere of politics, which seems to be the new driver for currencies as we enter a new world order.
The Italian referendum on December 4 and the Austrian Presidential Election on the same day are likely to deliver verdicts in line with the trend away from establishment politics to more radical extremism.
The real test for the Euro, however, will probably be in the Spring when The French decide their president and the Netherlands looks set to vote in an anti-European government.
Currently, the outlook for the Euro is looking a little better after primaries showed Francios Fillon is likely to be one of the contenders for the Presidency.
In a contest between Fillon and Marine Le Pen of the Front Nacional, Fillon would have a better chance of winning than most other competitors as he already embodies many of Le Pen’s right-wing policies in his Catholic Right wing politics.
read more