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AUD news - page 19

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Australia export price index +12.4% vs +12.1% q/q expected


Australian export/import prices along with the PPI

  • Prior was +3.5% q/q
  • Import price index +0.2% vs +0.4% q/q expected
  • Prior import price index was -1.0% q/q

AUD/USD Bounces Despite Stronger Dollar


AUD/USD attempted to recovery on Friday, despite the US Dollar index (DXY) extending higher in a recovery. The pair was boosted by weaker US data but upside momentum was not sustained as the pair pulled back to give back about half of its daily gains shortly after the release.

Fourth quarter GDP out of the United States fell short of expectations with the first reading pointing to a rise of 1.9% versus the expected rise of 2.2% and a gain of 3.5% in the prior quarter. The data triggered a push higher from the pre-release level of 0.7542 to a high of 0.7570 prior to a pullback. The pair was last seen trading at 0.7546 to limit the gain to 0.18% on the day. Simultaneously released with the GDP data were durable goods orders, pointing to a decline of 0.4% for December and a rise of 0.5% in the core figure.

AUD/USD turned lower following an early week test of resistance at 0.7589 and broke through a rising trendline after Australian inflation data fell short of expectations on Tuesday. The pair appears to be in a correction lower and while the was a recovery attempt today, momentum has been slow and a technical signal for a continuation of the broader uptrend has been lacking.

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AUD/USD forecast for the week of January 30, 2017


The Australian dollar did very little during the week, forming a relatively neutral candle just above the 0.75 level. If we can break below the 0.75 level, and even more importantly the 0.74 level, the market should fall from there and reach towards the 0.72 handle. Alternately, if we break above the top of the candle, the market should then get to the 0.7750 level above. This is a market that is asking a lot of questions of itself, but you must keep in mind that the gold markets look bearish on the weekly charts, and that will way upon the Aussie.



Australia - NAB Business conditions: 11 (prior 5) & Confidence: 6 (prior 5)

National Australia Bank Business Survey for December

Business conditions, big surge to 11 for the month
  • prior 6, revised up from 5
Business Confidence, 6
  • prior 6, revised higher from 5

Australia - manufacturing PMI (January): 51.2 (prior 55.4)

Australian Industry Group Performance of Manufacturing Index, a big drop on the month to 51.2

  • prior 55.4
  • January is the 4th consecutive month for the index to come in at 'expansion', despite the fall
AIG's 'key findings' for the month's survey results 9bolding mine):
  • Six of the seven activity sub-indexes improved from November. Strong expansions in new orders (60.6 points) and sales (58.8 points) continued in December, while exports surged ahead (68.5 points), Production (58.2 points) also expanded more strongly while deliveries (52.4 points) continued to grow. Employment (47.4 points) slipped in December, in line with recently weaker jobs growth
  • Five of the eight sub-sectors expanded in December (three month moving averages). Both food & beverages (57.1 points) and petroleum & chemical products (56.5 points) continue to perform strongly. Machinery & equipment (55.0 points) is showing signs of continued resilience. Non-metallic mineral products (57.9 points) bounced back to expansionary conditions while printing & recorded media (48.3 points) slipped from stable to mild contraction. Metal products (48.0 points) and textiles & clothing (44.3 points) remained contractionary, but at a weaker pace of contraction than previously
  • Comments from manufacturers in December indicate that demand (albeit somewhat mixed) appears to be improving again after a weak patch in the latter half of 2016.
  • The recovery in commodity prices has led to better conditions for manufacturers exposed to the mining sector, with some revival of mining investment and maintenance spending. However, surging energy costs, weaker local demand and slower spending on particular major projects is depressing activity for some manufacturers.
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