AUD news - page 17

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Australia Trade Balance for November: SURPLUS $1243m (expected -$550m, prior -$1541m)


Australian trade balance, November 2016

+AUD 1243m ... a HUGE BEAT.
  • expected -AUD550m, prior revised to -$A 1119, from -AUD1541m
More:
  • Goods and services exports are up 8% m/m
  • Imports change is flat on the month, 0.0%
 

AUD/USD Fundamental Analysis – Forecast for January 2017


Australian Dollar

On December 1, Australia reported that retail sales rose in November by 0.5%, slightly lower than the previous 0.6%.

On December 5, the Reserve Bank of Australia left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 1.50%. The very next day, the Australian government reported a 0.5% plunge in the Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter. This was well below the previous 0.6% gain.

On December 14, the Employment Change report showed the economy added 39.1K jobs in November. This was well above the previous 15.2K. The Unemployment Rate rose to 5.7% from 5.6%.

On December 18, the Australian government released its Mid-Year Economic and Fiscal Outlook. The report said the Australian government forecast wider budget deficits and slower growth over the coming years, although it stuck to its promise to deliver a surplus in the next five years, helping to maintain its AAA rating for now.

On December 19, the Reserve Bank of Australia released the minutes of its December policy meeting. In the minutes, the RBA identified balanced risks and expressed concerns about the strength of its currency.

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Australia data - December construction PMI: 47.0 (prior 46.6)


Australian Industry Group Performance of Construction Index for December

47.0
  • previous month's result was 46.6
All four sectors contracted
  • House building declined for a fifth consecutive month as activity in the sector moderated further from robust mid-year levels.
  • Apartment building also continued to contract, although the sector's pace of decline was the slowest in three months. 
  • Commercial construction remained subdued, contracting for a fifth month, and at a rate that was steeper than in November.
  • Engineering construction activity also continued to decline in December, although its rate of contraction was the slowest in three months due to new project work acquired by some businesses. 

  • The key activity sub-index remained below 50 points in December (i.e. contracted) for a third consecutive month, while new orders fell for a fifth month
  • Reflecting these tough operating conditions, employment fell in December at its most pronounced rate in nine months
  • Residential builders mainly commented on slow market conditions due to fewer customer enquiries, soft new orders and increased caution by prospective buyers at the close of 2016.  Despite the continued winding back in mining related construction, there were reports by engineering construction businesses of an improving inflow of infrastructure work, particularly transport projects in the eastern states
  • Reports from survey respondents also indicated on-going pressures from a highly competitive pricing environment and tight margins
 

Australia - Retail Sales for November: +0.2% m/m (expected +0.4%)


Australian Retail Trade data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics for November last year

A miss for Australian November retail sales, coming in at +0.2% m/m
  • expected +0.4% m/m
  • prior +0.5%

Trend data:
+0.4% in November
  • Same as the 0.4% rise in October
+3.4% y/y
 

AUD/USD Surges During Trump Press Conference


AUD/USD jumped higher during the North American session as a press conference held by President-elect Donald Trump triggered broad-based weakness in the US Dollar. The currency outperformed all of its major counterparts to lead the gainer’s list, in line with the trend seen since the start of the year as the Aussie shows the largest gains for the year thus far.

The press conference disappointed Dollar bulls as the President-elect did not discuss proposed tax reforms or an expansionary fiscal policy that has been widely expected. The focus of the press conference was on the handoff of the Trump organization to family members to avoid a conflict of interest. Most of the questions addressed to the President-elect related to the recent news reports indicating that Russia had knowledge on Trump that could incriminate him. Trump also commented that he did not have any ties to Russia that would cause him to have a bias.

AUD/USD traded relatively flat on the day ahead of the press conference and surged higher by about 1% as the Dollar declined against all of its counterparts.

The US Dollar index (DXY) recovered to reach a high of 102.95 ahead of the press conference but dropped sharply to briefly trade at a marginal new low for the week. While the index has bounced near the prior low of the week, a 4-hour bearish candle is probable and will likely keep the index under pressure.

 

Australian dollar rallies as economic data weighs in

The Australian dollar erased its Friday losses and bounced back sharply on the start of the week, as it jumped to 0.7364 against the greenback from 0.7296 last week while notching a 0.3% gain versus the euro.

Investors showed little jitters on the start of Monday trading, pulling off some profit taking in the early sessions, as they growing concerns on Donald Trump’s economic policy loomed before the famous business tycoon and now president-elect takes on the White House.

But the Aussie received an early-week boost from the recent economic figures showed by its local government and the strong consumer price data from its largest trading partner, China.

The country’s record for its construction PMI last month climbed to 47% from 46.6, surpassing economists’ expectations of just 46.8%.

The currency shrugged off some concerns on the news that the country’s most lucrative commodity, the iron ore, began diving, as demand for this risk-correlated currency in the global market was still impressively high.

Meanwhile, economic powerhouse China provided ample support to commodity and Pacific region currencies, especially the Australian dollar, as its consumer an producer prices tallied a 2.1% and 5.5% growth respectively on a year-on-year term, despite a slowed pace of consumer price growth in December.


SOURCE: http://www.funds-money.com/australian-dollar-currency/

 

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast January 16-20


AUD/USD closed out the week with an extension of the recent move higher. The pair advanced in each session during last week’s trading, for a total gain of 2%. This represents the third consecutive weekly gain for AUD/USD. With no bearish signs developing on either a daily or weekly basis, the move appears intact and healthy. However, a short-term period of consolidation or correction cannot be ruled out due to several factors.

One of those factors is the current overbought condition. Price action is extended, as evidenced by the extreme reading on the Stochastic indicator. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence indicator (MACD) is at a level that has previously corresponded to corrective tops.

At the same time, the pair is testing resistance. This resistance was initially defined by the low established October 13th. This low, once broken, reversed roles and provided resistance during the rally into the December 13/14 corrective top. AUD/USD closed out the week up against this zone of resistance, which is being reinforced by the 200-day moving average.

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Australia private inflation gauge for Dec: 0.5% m/m (prior 0.1%)


The Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge for December 2016

0.5 % m/m
  • prior 0.1% 
  • Yeah, I did a double-take on that too
1.8 % y/y
  • prior 1.5%
 

AUD/USD Weekly Forecast January 16-20

AUD/USD closed out the week with an extension of the recent move higher. The pair advanced in each session during last week’s trading, for a total gain of 2%. This represents the third consecutive weekly gain for AUD/USD. With no bearish signs developing on either a daily or weekly basis, the move appears intact and healthy. However, a short-term period of consolidation or correction cannot be ruled out due to several factors.

One of those factors is the current overbought condition. Price action is extended, as evidenced by the extreme reading on the Stochastic indicator. In addition, the Moving Average Convergence-Divergence indicator (MACD) is at a level that has previously corresponded to corrective tops.

At the same time, the pair is testing resistance. This resistance was initially defined by the low established October 13th. This low, once broken, reversed roles and provided resistance during the rally into the December 13/14 corrective top. AUD/USD closed out the week up against this zone of resistance, which is being reinforced by the 200-day moving average.

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Australia - ANZ / Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 119.3 (prior 120.1)

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