AUD/USD news - page 30

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AUD/USD: Buck Regains Positions as FOMC Looms, Ignores Data The AUD/USD pair was trading slightly lower on Tuesday, as the aussie lost its momentum amid the unsuccessful attempt to climb further above the significant support at the $.72 level.

Therefore, the consolidating triangle started to form, with the descending trendline starting at the two-month high at $0.7385 and the already mentioned figure of $0.72 acting as the support line.

Meanwhile, the US dollar found some ground ahead of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) two day meeting, as some uncertainty about the assessment of the current situation and the medium-term outlook by central bank officials cut the previous risk-on mood that had supported commodity and emerging market currencies.

"Classic risk assets are all slightly softer but it's not been an aggressive move," HSBC currency strategist Dominic Bunning mentioned. ''I don't think the positioning is there to see these massive spikes in emerging market selling and related safe-haven strength because I think a lot of the positioning has been cleared out in those markets."

On Tuesday, the aussie declined 0.33% to $.7222 against the buck, while the US dollar index rose 0.12% to 97.03 points.

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AUD/USD: Aussie Remains at 3-Week Low After CPI, Eyes on FOMC The aussie was weaker on Wednesday, mainly due to a disappointing September-quarter CPI reading from Australia and increasing speculation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will cut interest rates.

The Australian dollar was down 0.73% at $0.7135 in Europe's afternoon session, hitting a three-week low of $0.7112 right after the inflation report was published.

Markets are now waiting for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement later today, with markets expecting the Federal Reserve (Fed) to hold fire on the first interest rake hike since 2006. Analyst currently project a 36% probability of the Fed hiking in December and a 75% probability of a March rate hike.

"In truth the window for raising rates this year appears to be getting even smaller and was probably slammed shut last week in Beijing when the People's Bank of China cut rates again for the fifth time this year, in an attempt to help boost the slowing Chinese economy," Michael Hewson, chief market analyst at CMC Markets UK, wrote in a note on Wednesday.

While no change is expected today, the statement will be closely scrutinized for any change of tone with respect to the prospect of a rate hike this year.

"In short if the Fed weren't prepared to raise rates in September, they are hardly likely to now, or in six weeks' time, given that since that meeting the data has been shown little sign of any improvement," Hewson continued.

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On its way downnn...

 

Economic data due from Australia today 2300GMT - House Price data for October from CoreLogic, Prior was +0.9% m/m

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At 2330GMT we get the monthly private inflation gauge, the TD Securities/Melbourne Institute Inflation Gauge for October, prior was 0.3% m/m and 1.9% y/y

Last week we got the official inflation data, which is published once a quarter only here in Australia. It showed very low and saw plenty of commentary following saying that such low figures allow the RBA to cut rates. Expectations for a cut leapt but have calmed a little since. I'll have more on what to expect from the RBA a little later

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0030GMT - Building approvalsfor September:

  • For the m/m, expected is +1.0%, prior was -6.9%
  • For the y/y, expected is +24.1%, prior was +5.1%
 

Australia data - Manufacturing PMI (October): 50.2 (prior 52.1) AIG Performance of Manufacturing index for October Comes in at 50.2

  • prior was 52.1
  • Despite the fall from September's result it now four consecutive expansion results for this survey (the longest run of expansionary readings since July 2010)

    • 'Key findings' from AiG:

  • This month's result is only very mildly positive, suggesting stability rather than meaningful growth across Australia's manufacturing sectors.
  • Four of the eight manufacturing sub-sectors expanded in October
  • Among the seven activity sub-indexes, only exports (55.0 points) and supplier deliveries (51.3 points) were firmly positive and indicating expansion. The other five activity subindexes hovered just above or below 50.0 points in October, broadly indicating stability
  • October included an extra public holiday in Victoria ... Other factors affecting manufacturers in October included the low dollar and better local confidence (both positives), but a rather mixed pipeline of new customers and new orders

source

 

Chinese data missed expectations, on the downside Aud/Usd support located at 0.7100 zone, break below would open the door to further loss towards 0.7000 level.

 

AUD/USD: Aussie Rebounds, RBA Keeps Cash Rate Steady The aussie strengthened on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the cash rate steady at 2%, amid slow economic growth. However, the RBA stated that lower inflation levels may lead to new policy easing if needed.

The aussie rose 0.76% against the greenback, trading at $0.7200 towards the end of the Asian session after the RBA decision, from $0.7193 beforehand.

"Members observed that the outlook for inflation may afford scope for further easing of policy, should that be appropriate to lend support to demand," RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in a statement on Tuesday.

Furthermore, the RBA assessed that "inflation is forecast to be consistent with the target over the next one to two years, but a little lower than earlier expected."

A large number of economists had expected the RBA to cut the cash rate to a record-low 1.75% after last week's third-quarter CPI figures came in below forecast. The CPI climbed up 1.5% year-on-year in the September quarter, coming in below the 1.7% consensus forecast and the RBA's 2-3% target range.

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AUD/USD forecast for the week of November 9, 2015 The AUD/USD pair initially tried to rally during the course of the week but turned back around to slam into the 0.70 region. This area is the absolute bottom of the market, but it now looks as if the market could very well break below there. If we make a fresh, new low, the market will then start to reach towards the 0.68 handle. Any bounce from here should be a selling opportunity, and as a result we of course will sell resistive candles above as long as we stay below the 0.75 handle.

 

AUD/USD Forecast Nov. 9-13 AUD/USD posted losses for a fourth straight week, losing 100 points. The pair closed at 0.7035. This week’s key events include NAB Business Confidence and Employment Change. Here is an outlook on the major market-movers and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

The US dollar was broadly higher following the Non-Farm Payrolls report, which more than beat expectations, with 271K jobs gained and a 2.5% y/y gain in wages. This outstanding release points to a strong labor market, and certainly keeps the December rate hike option wide open. The RBA kept rates at 2.00%, but noted that a rate cut remains on the table.

Updates:

AUD_USD_Forecast.Nov9-13

  1. Chinese Trade Balance: Sunday, 2:09. The Australian dollar is sensitive to key Chinese releases such as Trade Balance, as China is Australia’s number one trading partner. The trade surplus rose to $393 billion in October, easily beating the estimate of $367 billion.
  2. ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 00:30. This indicator provides a snapshot of the strength of the labor market. In September, the indicator jumped 3.9%, its biggest gain since June 2014. This marked the indicator’ third gain in four months.
  3. NAB Business Confidence: Tuesday, 00:30. This indicator, released monthly, is a key event. The indicator posted a strong improvement in September, rising to 5 points. Will the upward trend continue in the October report?

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