Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 29
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Vista Brokers: Oil Is in Limbo because of Greece
On Thursday, oil futures can not determine with the direction, moving up and down. Vista Brokers analysts say that traders are awaiting the outcome of Greece's talks with international creditors, which continues today in Brussels.
During the European trading session on the Nymex crude oil futures for delivery in August have fallen in price by 0.22% to $ 60.14 per barrel. Recall that the day before August futures have fallen by 1.21% to $ 60.27 after it became known that in the US last week, gasoline inventories rose by 0.7 million barrels and distillates - by 1.8 million barrels. At the same time oil reserves fell by 4.9 million barrels, far exceeding the forecast.
August futures for Brent today have fallen on ICE Futures Exchange in London by 0.04% to $ 63.47 a barrel, after falling 1.49% to $ 63.49 on Wednesday.
Market Pulse 06/26
On Friday, a lot of important data will be published during the Asian trading session. In New Zealand, has already released the trade balance data. Analysts Vista Brokers recommend to pay attention to the indicator of consumer confidence from the University of Michigan, as well as the speach of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.
23:30 *** Consumer Price Index - May (Japan)
23:30 ** Household Spending - May (Japan)
23:30 ** National Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food - May (Japan)
23:30 ** National Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy - May (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index - June (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex-Fresh Food - June (Japan)
23:30 ** Tokyo Consumer Price Index Ex Food, Energy - June (Japan)
Strong impact on the market (JPY). According to forecasts growth of consumer prices in Japan in May was 0.4% after 0.6% the previous month. Growth of the consumer price index in Tokyo is expected at 0.5%.
14:00 ** Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment - June (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). The consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan allows to estimate the consumer confidence in the current and future state of the economy. It is a very important leading indicator of future spending. The excess of the forecast is favorable for the currency.
14:15 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - June (UK)
Strong impact on the market (GPB). Carney comments about the state of the UK economy may seriously affect the dynamics of the pound, because on their basis market participants will draw conclusions about the future strategy of the Bank of England.
Vista Brokers: Calm before the Storm
On Thursday, trading in EUR / USD was restrained amid expectations of the result of Greece's negotiations with international creditors. Vista Brokers analysts say that because of the situation, which may result with a default of the country in the near future, in financial markets therewas a tense silence - the calm before the storm. Periodically, markets were showing signs of excitement after another appeared news on the progress of negotiations.
Nevertheless, it is worth noting published during the day statistics, most of which, however, traders left unattended. During the European trading session in Germany was released leading index of consumer climate for July. The index fell to the level of 10.1 from the level of 10.2 in June, as expected.
Later in the United States was released the data on unemployment claims. For the reporting week the number of applications has increased by 3000, which coincided with the forecast. The number of counting claims has increased, while analysts had expected a decline. The core PCE price index also came in line with forecasts, and changes in the level of personal spending was slightly better than expected (0.9% vs. 0.7%). The level of personal incoms of Americans has risen in May by 0.5% against the expected 0.6%.
USD / JPY. Thinking about
C
ause
s
and
E
ffect
s
Launched breakthrough
of
the "triangle" upper
border went nowhere
- market players continue to be cautious, and
they really have reasons for it
. It so happened that
not only and not so much Greeks are interested in
the situation in
their country,
as investors around the world who are used to keep money in a quiet location on the occurrence of such severe cases like this. The yen,
together
with gold and all sorts of "risk-free" government bonds (we think that
there are no such bonds
, but so they say) has traditionally been used as one of these
safe-havens
. So, we wait...
Recall
that tonight was published
the
inflation
data
for Japan (perhaps this is the key data
regards
the country in recent years) - value
was
above expectations. What does it mean? Most likely, that the fight against deflation
give some
results, which means it is unlikely that the Bank of Japan in the near future will
think about
the expansion of
the
asset repurchase program, which has driven the yen on thirteen-year lows. And it seems that this is not what Japanese officials
want.
We do not recommend to enter the market today, waiting for fundamental change
s
.
Volatility 61%
Trend:
si
de
ways
Fundamental background:
moderate
GBP / USD. Market Players Sat on Fence
The British seems to have found some support near the support line and the 38.2% Fibo level of the upward momentum in June. Today, we do not expect any important publications, which means that the trend will continue rather than change its direction.
Anyway, it is advisable to be careful when trying to buy from current levels - in any case the protective stop should be placed close.
Volatility: 65%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate
Vista Brokers: Oil Market Is still Calm
On Friday, oil contracts are traded in a narrow range as investors' views are still facing to the negotiations on Greece. Vista Brokersanalystsnote that quotes are about the same level for quite a long time, so that sooner or later this calm will surely turn into the storm. It is not clear just – where it will be directed.
Today during the Asian session August futures for Brent have risen by 19 cents to $ 63.39 per barrel, ending the previous session lower by 29 cents. WTI futures for August delivery have fallen by 6 cents today to $ 59.64 per barrel, while on Thursday the contract ended the day lower by 57 cents.
Experts believe that the assumption of the imminent change in the dynamics of the oil market can be drawn from the technical picture, which is now formed on the market. Since the beginning of the year Brent quotes are in a classic upward channel, borders of which the price will leave sooner or later and as a result it can be formed a strong movement, downward or upward.
From a fundamental point of view quotes must get a driver to leave the channel, for example, a decision on Iran's nuclear program. This question is recently a bit faded into the background – everybody is watching on Greece. But the question on Iran, in theory, should be definitively settled next week. Most likely, sanctions will be lifted from the country, and over the next month Tehran would increase exports, which can lead to a decrease in oil prices. Another scenario is also still possible - sanctions may remain in force, and it will support quots.
Do not forget about the correlation of oil with the US dollar, a position of which in the international currency market have an impact on all instruments, measured in dollars. Not far off is September, when many market players expect the first Fed rate hike, which will certainly have an impact on the dollar and, as a consequence, on the oil market.
Vista Brokers: Rising Dollar Pressures Gold
During the Friday's European trading session, gold has fallen in price. Vista Brokersanalysts note that the precious metals market was under pressure after Thursday's strong statistics from the US has supported the dollar. Experts also remind us that the picture of the market can change dramatically at any time, as players are closely watching negotiations on Greece.
Today on Comex gold futures for August delivery have plunged by 0.12% to $ 1,170.50 per troy ounce. A day earlier, these futures had ended the day at $ 1,171.80 (-0.09%).
Recall that the dollar has received support in the currency market after the release of information that the personal income in the US has grown by 0.5% in May (coincided with the forecast), and the level of spending – by 0.9% (the forecast was 0.7%).
As for the other traded metals, silver futures for July delivery have tumbled today by 1.25% to $ 15,610 per ounce, while copper for July contract have increased by 0.51% to $ 2.637 per pound.
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GOLD
A market fluctuations amplitude continues to decline, but this is not a reason to relax, because at any time we may reach some data (for example, regards Greece), which will force market participants to activate sharply. In the meantime, we have the conditional stop-order at 1178.07 - the current value of the red Alligator line.
Volatility: 28%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY
After the nearest fractal down level crossing the pending order to sale from 123.28 has activated. Thus, the decline does not have the continuation yet, and we have no additional signals. Anyway, we are prepared to act, because the current price is close to Alligator's teeth, so the position may be closed soon.
Volatility: 60%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:EUR/USD
The EUR/USD market remains calm. The position to sale is still relevant, despite of the red Alligator's line closure, closing above which would be a signal to leave the market. During the last 24 hours there was no additional signals.
Volatility: 38%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GBP/USD
We have fixed a result on the short position from 1.5803 with a small profit at 1.5742. The range of fluctuations is currently limited with levels of the nearest fractals (where we have our breakthrough orders). The distance between them is near a figure, and it is not too much, due to the last months increased volatility level.
Volatility: 66%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Pulse 06/29
Week starting in the foreign exchange market will not be too busy. In the euro zone, Germany and Spain will be published preliminary index of consumer prices for June, and later in the US will be released the data on pending home sales. The market is still focused on the situation in Greece, which has not been able to negotiate with creditors on the weekend, therefore, it will likely continue to ignore the publication.
7:00 ** Preliminary Consumer Price Index - June (Spain)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of the key indicators in Forex, because usually the monetary policy mostly depends on it. In June, it is expected that the consumer price index has declined by 0.1%.
8:30 ** Net Lending to Individuals - May (UK)
8:30 ** Mortgage Approvals - May (UK)
9:30 ** MPC Member Martin Weale Speaks - May (UK)
Moderate impact on the market (GPB). Analysts expect fairly good data on these indicators. Acceleration of the net loans dynamics reflects the improvement in lending, and promises the consumer spending growth. The number of approved applications for a mortgage loans is an interest, since it not only informs about the "health" of the housing market, but also about the situation in relation to lending activity.
12:00 *** Preliminary Consumer Prices Index - June (Germany)
12:00 *** Preliminary Harmonized Consumer Prices Index - June (Germany)
Strong impact on the market (EUR). Inflation is one of the key indicators in Forex, because usually the monetary policy mostly depends on it. In June, it is expected that the consumer price index has increased by 0.1%.
14:00 ** Pending Home Sales - May (USA)
Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changing in the volume of outstanding transactions with real estate. It is an early indicator of the activity of the US housing market.
Vista Brokers: EUR / USD Finished the Hard Week with Decline
On Friday, the euro has fallen against all the major competitors in Forex. Vista Brokers analysts note that at the end of the week the EUR / USD has dropped by 1.74%. All over the week, views of market participants were glued to negotiations of Greece with international lenders, which have not been successful finished.
All possible terms of negotiations on Greece due to expire on Tuesday, when the country has to pay 1.6 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund. Without the agreement on the resumption of financial aids program to Athens will not be able to make this payment, which will mean a default.
On Saturday, parties have not been able to conclude negotiations. The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that on July 5 the country holds a referendum, the results of which will decide whether to agree to the "troika" demands. Tsipras suggested lenders to extend the program until the referendum, however, euro zone finance ministers refused to do so. The European Central Bank meanwhile continues to supply liquidity to Greek banks, but on Saturday, representatives of the regulator said that they are monitoring the situation and may at any time change the decision.
Vista Brokers: Kuroda Told about BOJ Plans Regards Inflation
On Monday, comments of the Bank of Japan's head Haruhiko Kuroda were published. The BOJ governor has gave them at an annual meeting of the Bank for International Settlements in Switzerland. Vista Brokers analysts note that Kuroda hopes to achieve the inflation target in the first half of fiscal 2016 (April-September).
Recall that recently the consumer nflation in Japan has returned to almost zero growth, and the head of the central bank calls it "the temporary influence of low oil prices.". Last week came the latest data on consumer price indexes for May that showed the increase in the consumer price index by 0.5% compared to 0.4% and the growth of the consumer price index excluding prices for food and energy by 0.4% in line with the forecast.
Kuroda also said that there are many risks that could prevent achievement of the inflation target by the target date. The economic situation in the world is now very tense, especially strongly influenced by geopolitical factors - he said.