Technical and Market Analysis by Vistabrokers - page 28
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Vista Brokers: Euro Fell to 2-week Low
Negotiations of Greece and international lenders continue to keep the market in suspense. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Tuesday EUR / USD has dropped to a two-week low – 1.1136 after earlier hope for the conclusion of negotiations for some time was supporting the growth of the pair. Not only the continuation of the "Greek saga" has weakened the euro, but the rally of the US dollar.
On Wednesday, euro zone finance ministers have set the time period within which the agreement on Greece to be negotiated, and it is no longer on June 30 but on 25 - the experts gave 48 hours to analise a next reform plan provided by Athens.
In the US, controversial macroeconomic statistics, together with statements of the FOMC member Jerome Powell, have supported expectations about this year Fed interest rate hike. Thus, Powell has said that he estimates the probability of the rate hike in September, as 50/50. With regard to statistics, data on durable goods sales were lower than forecasts, but the volume of home sales in the primary market has increased by 2.2% to the highest level since February 2008 – 546 000, that significantly exceeded forecasts.
Vista Brokers: Asian Stocks Rose on Expectations regards Greece
During the Asian session on Wednesday, major stock indexes in the region have risen. Investors hope that a deal of Greece with international creditors is about to be concluded – as Vista Brokers analysts say. Supported with optimistic expectations, the Japanese Nikkei 225 has risen by 0.60%, Shanghai Composite – by 0.84% and S & P / ASX 200 – by 0.27%.
Today, the left wing of the Greek Parliament has expressed confidence that on Thursday the deal with creditors, concluded by the government, will be approved by Parliament, despite the fact that yesterday, some members of the ruling party "Syriza" have aggressively embraced the possibility of the agreement. After all, to please creditors Tsipras had to agree to raise taxes and reduce pension costs. Recall that last Sunday Athens gave "troika" an updated reform plan, which was called by Eurogroup representatives sufficiently comprehensive. It gave hope to financial markets participants that the Greek saga may finally end soon.
The next stage of talks will be held on Thursday - representatives of Greece and creditors had 48 hours to study the updated reform plan, discuss some details and to finally adopt the decision. Perhaps that is exactly what will happen tomorrow.
Analysts say that during the Asian session today were published minutes of the last Bank of Japan meeting. An interesting moment that came to be known of the protocols is that one of the board members, Takahide Kuichi, voted to reduce the amount of assets purchases by the Bank of Japan from 80 to 45 trillion euros, saying that aggressive incentives have unpleasant side effects that harm the economy. Thus, the central bank left the size of the program unchanged, but the voices were 8 to 1.
Vista Brokers: Gold Gains Momentum
During Wednesday's morning trading, gold was gaining momentum. Vista Brokersanalysts note that precious metals market participants are closely watching the developments with regard to Greece. Negotiations are nearing completion, and it is really a very important moment for all of the financial markets - after the decision is made, the picture for the many tools can change greatly.
August gold futures on Comex have risen by 0.10% to $ 1,177.80 per ounce. Silver - by 0.36% to $ 15,793 per ounce. Copper, which is often in opposition, has dropped by 0.07% to $ 2.611 per pound, making a breather after the rally earlier in the week caused by hopes for a stable growth of China's economy.
Gold futures (overnight) have decreased amid yesterday's dollar rally after the strong data on the primary housing market in the US and because of concerns about Greece. On Tuesday, the US currency has showed the strongest daily growth in almost a month, when it became known that in May, sales in the primary real estate market have increased by 2.2% to 546,000 (the highest level from February 2008).
USD
/
JPY
.
Bulls
T
ry
S
trength of
T
riangle
U
pper
L
imit
The pair has moved a little above the upper limit of the triangle graphic figure, that we had mentioned in the last review. Meanwhile, given the fact, that today during the American trading session the USA will published the final GDP data for the Q1 (we should not also forget about today's Eurogroup meeting on Greece), this movement does not have essential fundamental reasons. Bulls should overcome the nearest support level
124.45
to feel themselves more confident.
It is recommended to wait for today's expected events before acting. Given the technical picture, the above-mentioned support level breakthrough with a high possibility will give the growth an additional momentum, and we should definitely use this.
Volatility 55%
Trend:
s
ide
ways
Fundamental background: strong
EUR
/
USD
. I
n Wait for Miracle
We should mention at once, that during today's meeting of the euro zone finance ministers a Greek question must be decided. Yesterday there were some signals that the deal would be finally made, but we should wait a little more before making conclusions. Meanwhile, investors have started to fix their long positions amid the uncertainty. This has reflected on quotes yesterday when the support line, that was holding sellers the whole last month, was passed.
It is recommended to hold short positions with a target of
1.1050,
as we have said in the last review. Thus, it is important to
take into account the element of surprise
regards the
decision on Greece, and be ready for any eventuality.
Now
,
we
can move the protective stop
-order
to
the area of the opening price.
Volatility: 54%
Trend:
b
earish
Fundamental background: strong
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GOLD
The order to sale has activated after the price had passed a fractal down at 1181.87. Among additional signals we have «2 red bars below zero» on АС, as well as «red zone» signals. Recall that we must add volume to a position only when the price passes a minimal value (for sales) of a signal bar.
Volatility: 46%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:USD/JPY
Despite a lack of important changes in USD/JPY during the last 24 hours, the long position is still relevant. The red Alligator line value has moved to a zero risk area, while there was no additional signals yet. Today the market is looking for the important final GDP data in the USA (Q1), that is why it is recommended to be ready to react on all new System signals.
Volatility: 50%
Trend: bullish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD
We continue to hold our short position from 1.1310. The situation around talks on Greece is heating up, so in the market is growing uncertainty, a constant companion of which is a volatility increase. The value of the Alligator's teeth has moved to the level of 1.1299, while there was no additional signals to sale.
Volatility: 53%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD
The market situation has not fundamentally changed – an order to sale from 1.5803 is still relevant. The market is waiting for today's US final GDP data.
Volatility: 76%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Pulse 25.06
On Thursday particularly saturated with information is the American trading session, during which will be released some important data, including the unemployment claims statistics in the United States.
6:00 ** GfK Consumer Climate - July (Germany)
Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The leading GfK consumer climate index characterizes the opinion of consumers with respect to income, the desire to spend and to the economy in the beginning of the reporting month.
8:00 *** SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks - June (Switzerland)
Strong impact on the market (CHF). Comments of Jordan on the situation in the economy are closely monitored by traders and investors, who arelooking for hints of further SNB action.
12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Continuing Claims - June (USA)
12:30 ** Core PCE Price Index - June (USA)
12:30 ** Personal Spending - June (USA)
12:30 ** Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator - June (USA)
Strong impact on the market (USD). Among above indicators the most important considers to be the unemployment claims indicator, in particular, initial claims, which are the important indicator of the labor market. It is expected that during the reporting week, the number of Americans who had applied for benefits for the first time increased. Growth in consumer spending could have a positive impact on the dynamics of the dollar.
Vista Brokers: US GDPDatawasinLine withExpectations
On Tuesday, market participants were mostly monitoring negotiations on Greece, occasionally distracted by the release of statistics. Vista Brokersanalysts point out that the greatest attention was attracted by the final data on the US GDP for the first quarter. The data was in line with expectations - was revised from -0.7% to -0.2%.
Also in the US was published a number of less significant, but still accounted by the market indices. The GDP price index in the first quarter remained at the same level against the expected decline by 0.1%. Also better than expected was the growth of the personal consumption index – the figure increased in the first three months of this year by 2.1% vs. 1.9%.
With regard to the continuation of the "Greek saga," due to which the market is constantly in a fever, then according to the words of the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, international lenders have found some bugs in the latest reform plan, provided by Athens. Recall that the decision of Greece to be taken today. Or the country will face a default, or the resumption of the program of financial assistance from the EU, the ECB and the IMF.
GBP
/
USD
Reached the First Correction Target
After the pair has reached its maximal for the last seven months values (by the way, a peak of the
«
cable
»
growth was at the level of 50% correction from a downtrend lasted from July 2014 till April 2015) has started a correction, which currently continues. The size of this correction is now close to a value of 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement from the June GBP / USD growth.
There are no essential fundamental reasons for decline, as the recent statistics regards the British economy, as well as the US one was near
predicted values
.
It is recommended to wait for signals from trend indicators, before opening long positions. Meanwhile, it could not be excluded that the correction will continue to the next level
– 50% (1.5560), 61.8% (1.5470),
but this scenario is connected with high risks.
Volatility: 65%
Trend:
b
ullish
Fundamental background:
moderate
GOLD
R
emains within
R
ange
G
old price
sinuous line
, apparently, is very close to reflect changes in sentiment in financial markets related to the situation around Greece. At the same time, despite the fact that all possible
terms
when the saving tranche
may be obtained, separating the country from defaulting almost expired, the market is not ready to make a false start. Yesterday quotes
have
once again tested the lower boundary of the last few months trading range,
but
could not overcome
it again
.
Given the current technical picture, it is recommended to buy with a protective stop slightly below yesterday's low
with a target of
1220 - the upper
border
of the range.
Volatility: 40%
Trend:
s
ide
ways
Fundamental background:
moderate
Vista Brokers: Asian Session Was under the Sign of Greece Again
During the Asian trading session on Thursday, stock markets in the region were declining, as well as the US dollar. Vista Brokers analysts remind that today is a "day X" for Greece - the country has only a few hours to somehow avoid default.
Today the European Union leaders once again gather in Brussels to discuss the possibility of Athens salvation. If no agreement is concluded, Greece will not be able to make a payment on the IMF loan in the amount of 1.6 billion euros on 30 June. In such a case it will default, in consequence of which the country could leave the euro zone, which will bring the financial markets even more uncertainty.
Let's go back to the Thursday's Asian session. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was actually holding close to the previous session's close. Japan's Nikkei has fallen by 0.3% after earlier on Wednesday, it has risen to the highest level since 1996 on optimism about Greece's agreement with creditors. Support for major Japanese index has also information that the US President Barack Obama is actively working on Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), where Japan has an important economic role.
The dollar index DXY has fallen by 0.1%. The euro was traded higher against the US currency, as the hope of a favorable outcome of the situation with Greece still persists. It should be noted that on Wednesday was published the final data on changes in US GDP for the 1st quarter, which coincided with the forecast (-0.7% with revision to -0.2%). Now the market is too busy with Greece to pay much attention to this fact, but the positive GDP figures confirm expectations about the Fed rate hike in September.
On the commodities market, crude oil has not changed in price, remaining close to the level of $ 60.28. Brent crude oil has risen by 0.3% to $ 63.68. Spot gold has risen by 0.2% to $ 1,177.22 per ounce.
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD
We continue to hold the short position from 1181.87. In general the market is calm, and it allows us to gradually move the stop-trade after the price on the red Alligator line level (current value is 1180.88). We have only one additional signal from the «red zone». According to the classical technical analysis, prices have reached the support level, a breakthrough of which would be beneficial for us.
Volatility: 38%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:USD/JPY
The uptrend has been placed with the correction, and our long position was closed with the bar closure below the red Alligator line. Currently we are out of the market. We have placed pending breakthrough orders at the nearest fractals levels on both sides of Alligator's teeth.
Volatility: 56%
Trend: sideways
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:EUR/USD
The market is frozen – nobody wants to predict the result of the situation with Greece amid those conflicting rumors that appear in news line. Meanwhile, the order to sale from 1.1310 is still in the market. We have a signal to add volume «3 red bars above zero» on АС.
Volatility: 44%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate
Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams:GBP/USD
We continue to hold a short position from 1.5803. Despite rather calm recent trading, we have additional signals from a «red zone», a «saucer» on АО, as well as «2 red bars below zero» on АС.
Volatility: 63%
Trend: bearish
Fundamental background: moderate