Market View; World Stock Indexes & Trading Journal - page 22
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After 3 consecutive rising days American indexes closed with contained losses. Investors adopted a more cautious attitude towards the intensification of the earnings season. Today begins the earnings season for the banking sector, which is always a important for the market. This cautious attitude of investors also led to a lower volume average. Sales reached most sectors, particularly the most active in recent days. The oil sector fell 1% after the gains from the acquisition of BG Group by Shell and the rise of crude oil price. Another sector that has excelled is the utilities that yesterday corrected 0.99%. In earlier days, the utilities stocks had benefited from the decline in yields on government bonds.
Investors will continue to monitor the situation in Greece, which in recent days has been the scene of various news and contradictory rumors.
Oil shares have benefited from the recovery of crude oil, which is explained by the interruption of the rise of the dollar against major currencies, the closure of vendors positions by several hedge funds and some evidence that the increase in supply may not be as consistent as previously anticipated. In addition, yesterday the US Department of Energy reported that the oil reserves of the country increased by only 1.3 million barrels instead of 3.21 million estimated.
The situation in Greece has been receiving increased attention not only in the financial markets but also in the press. Last Tuesday, Standard & Poor’s lowered the rating of Greece from B- to CCC + (speculative grade or junk), citing the deteriorating economy and public accounts due to ongoing talks with its European partners. The growing nervousness expressed by the financial markets has not been uniform. While stocks and Greek bonds have been penalized and European equities as a whole have been retreating, the obligations of State of the countries of southern Europe have remained stable. In addition, the Euro has managed to value yourself against the Dollar.
European stocks technically recover from the last week falls. Last week, European markets had one of the worst weekly performance this year. The reasons for this fall are essentially three. The first is the decline of the dollar, which had been the main catalyst for the rally of some indexes such as the DAX, which includes several export companies. The European currency has been favored by the weak US economic data, with the perception that the rise in interest rates in the US is not imminent and some factors of a more technical nature (the fall of the Euro has reached extreme levels and not observed even when the apex the sovereign debt crisis). The second reason is the growing nervousness regarding the situation in Greece. The deterioration of public finances of this country has worsened and some European leaders such as German finance minister, appear skeptical about a possible deal during the course of the Eurogroup meeting next Friday. The third reason is a reflection of the previous two and concerns the temptation for some Profit Taking.
European stocks initiated the session extending yesterday’s recovery. Investors will respond to the results of Credit Suisse, ARM Holdings and SAP. The Swiss bank reported a quarterly profit growth of 23% (1050 M.CHF), surpassing analysts’ expectations of 1030 M.USD, in that, among the various activities of Credit Suisse, the good performance of the financial assets trading unit was highlighted. The German SAP announced that the operating income in the 1st quarter reached 1060 M. €, roughly in line with the 1070 M. € anticipated. Revenues totaled the 4500 M. €, above the estimated 4300 M.€. Also in the technology sector, ARM Holdings, an English company that supplies components for smartphones announced quarterly revenue of 227.5 M. £ compared to the estimated 224.4 M. £. The bottom line will continue to be the situation in Greece. The market is expected to remain sensitive to any news or rumor regarding this matter.
The situation in Greece continues to condition the equity markets. Yesterday was enough the rumor that the ECB might change its position in relation to Greek banks for which the respective shares lost 5% and the DAX back off nearly 1% in a few minutes. A rumor circulated in the market that the ECB could cut the line of emergency liquidity to Greek banks and simultaneously make a haircut to their guarantees. In addition, the situation of the Greek public accounts assume confused contours, as a representative of the European Commission stated that it is not known how much liquidity is available to the government in Athens.
Starts today in Riga the Council of Europe. The main theme of this event will be the situation in the Mediterranean. However, it is not excluded that behind the scenes is discussed the situation in Greece. With regard to Greece, this event is of a more political character and serves as a prelude to tomorrow’s Eurogroup meeting, which takes a more technical nature. Most of the actors in these two events do not anticipate that an agreement is reached but expect at least that the talks give some steps forward.
In recent weeks, Greek officials have been shown to be optimistic about an agreement, but some members such as Germany, Finland, among others, are skeptical because of some ground gained in the last three months. However, yesterday’s statements by German Chancellor Angela Merkel (who said he had a constructive meeting with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras), may serve to mitigate some differences within the Eurozone. The next meeting of the Eurogroup will take place on 11 May, which will function as a reference date for the financial markets.
he main stock indexes should trade today under the influence of two opposite factors. The first, positive, is the good performance of US markets. The second is negative, and is related to the situation in Greece. Although almost no one was waiting for an agreement at the meeting of the Eurogroup on Friday, the point is that the few steps forward to bridge the gap between Greece and its European partners still appear insufficient. Interestingly, with the exception of the Greek Minister of Finance, several European leaders at the press conference following the meeting gave greater emphasis on differences rather than commonalities.