Daily price just broke Ichimoku cloud from below to above with
good bullish breakout and came to the bullish area of the chart. Price
was stopped by 1156.65 resistance level for the ranging market condition
to be started on Friday with the following key
s/r levels for this pair on the way to the key s/r are the following:
1156.65 bullish resistance and 1121.25 bearish support level.
D1 price - ranging bullish:
If D1 price will break 1098.68
support level on close D1 bar so we may see the bearish market condition.If D1 price will break 1170.06 resistance level so the bullish trend will be continuing.If not so the price will be on ranging between the levels.
SUMMARY : bullish
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Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.26 07:57
Forex Weekly Outlook Sep 28 - Oct 2 (based on forexcrunch article)
A turbulent week has seen the dollar dive but recover quite nicely. US Consumer Confidence, ADP jobs release, Canadian GDP, Janet Yellen’s speech, and a buildup to the highly important US monthly jobs report are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the market movers on Forex calendar.
The dollar suffered for while, on unimpressive durable goods orders. The pain was especially strong against the euro, that received only normal dovish words from Draghi. Yet the fate changed as Yellen surprised with a hawkish tone, stressing that a 2015 hike is certainly on the cards. The final GDP estimate for the second quarter in the US beat forecasts with a better than expected reading of 3.9% annual growth. Elsewhere, the Aussie struggled with another weak Chinese figure and USD/CAD reached an 11 year high, yet these commodity currencies recovered.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.28 07:53
What To Expect Into This Week: US NFP - Barclays (based on efxnews article)
"We expect, in line with consensus, an increase of 200k in the headline number (190k for the private payroll), a steady unemployment rate of 5.1%, and a 2.4% y/y increase in wages. We see these figures as robust indicators of tighter labor market conditions and supportive of inflation in the months to come."
2015-10-02 13:30 GMT (or 15:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]
if actual > forecast (or previous data) = good for currency (for USD in our case)
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry. Job creation is an important leading indicator of consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
EURUSD M5: 100 pips ranging price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.09.28 17:37
Bullish intra-day reversal based on negative data for Pending Home Sales news event (adapted from realtor.org article)
The price for EUR/USD M5 timeframe broke 100-SMA and 200-SMA from below to above together with symmetric triangle pattern and stopped below 1.1234 resistance level. The price was reversed from the bearish to the bullish market condition because of negative data for Pending Home Sales news event. If this level is broken so the bullish trend will be continuing on this timeframe.
"Pending home sales retreated in August but remained at a healthy
level of activity and have now risen year–over–year for 12 consecutive
months, according to the National Association of Realtors®. A modest increase in the West was offset by declines in all other regions."
"The Pending Home Sales Index,
a forward–looking indicator based on contract signings, decreased 1.4
percent to 109.4 in August from 110.9 in July but is still 6.1 percent
above August 2014 (103.1)."
NAR chief economist, says even with the modest decline in contract
signings, demand continues to outpace housing supply and elevate price
growth in numerous markets. "Pending sales have leveled off since
mid–summer, with buyers being bounded by rising prices and few available
and affordable properties within their budget," he said. "Even with
existing–housing supply barely budging all summer and no relief coming
from new construction, contract activity is still higher than earlier
this year and a year ago."
As to the GOLD (XAU/USD) so M5 price was on bear market rally within the primary bearish market condition for trying to break 100-SMA to come to the ranging area of the chart. The key 'reversal' resistance for this timeframe is 1135.28, and if the price breaks this level so we may see the ranging condition with the good possibility to the bullish reversal in the near future.
Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.02 14:44
[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.
EURUSD M5: 161 pips price movement by USD - Non-Farm Employment Change news event:
Gold (XAU/USD) went to the bullish market condition - on close bar for M5 timeframe, and on open bar on H4 chart:
Sergey Golubev, 2015.10.03 08:08
Forex Weekly Outlook October 5-9 (based on forexcrunch article)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Trade Balance, Mario Draghi’s speech, rate decision in Japan, Australia and the UK, US Unemployment Claims, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Canadian employment data and Stephen Poloz’ speech are the main events on Forex calendar. Here is an outlook on the market movers for this week.Last week U.S. major job report for September was a big disappointment, showing a lukewarm job gain of 142,000 positions, far below the 201,000 reading forecasted by analysts. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.1% due to a further deterioration in the labor force participation rate, plunging to 62.4%, the worse rate since October 1977. Furthermore, wages remained flat, indicating subdued inflationary pressures. The negative report cools expectations for a near-term rate hike.