LiteForex Analytics - page 84
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XAU/USD: general review
Current trend
The pair is currently under pressure amid news regarding federal budget resolution for the next fiscal year in the US, as it needs to be approved by Congress. Yet the US President Obama expressed his hopefulness that the document will be passed without any delays and signed within the appropriate period.
Support and resistance
Gold continues trading within a descending channel. At present, the price reached its lower border at the level of 1131.50. If it manages to overcome this level, the pair continues falling towards 1100.00. At the same time, an upward correction is possible from the bottom border of the channel. A confirmation of a possibility to consider long positions could be a price consolidation above the level of 1137.99.
Support levels: 1131.50.
Resistance levels: 1137.99.
Trading tips
Open short positions after the breakdown of the level of 1131.50 with the target at 1112.55 and stop-loss at 1138.00.
GBP/USD: general analysis
Current trend
Last week, the GBP/USD pair managed to strengthen amid weak US macroeconomic indicators, in particular, when Retail Sales statistics were released on Friday. However, at present, the dynamics has changed.
This week, attention needs to be paid to Producer Price Index, Retail Price Index and Consumer Price Index, due in the UK. The US, in its turn, releases Consumer Price Index. Favorable statistics may strengthen the national currencies.
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index is due today in the US. Analysts forecast a rise from -11.36 to -6.00 points. Nevertheless, the indicator does not influence much market volatility.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, MAs with 10 and 20 periods are above the current price and directed downward. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, its volumes are growing. According to the indicators, the pair tends to decline, but no high volatility is expected today so the price is likely to trade within the range of 1.5268-1.5061, which was formed by MA10 and the lower MA of Bollinger Bands.
Support levels: 1.5061 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5026 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1.5268 (last week high), 1.5292 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5520, 1.5821.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.5120 and stop-loss at 1.5268.
Long positions can be opened after the consolidation above the level of 1.5268 with the target at 1.5360 and stop-loss at 1.5230.
GBP/USD: review and forecast
Current trend
During a week, the GBP/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range, close to the level of 1.5210. At present, the pair is still waiting for an impulse that will manage to push the price out of its sideways channel.
However, such an impulse is unlikely to occur today. The only news release that may influence the dynamics in the pair is FOMC Minutes. FOMC Minutes are released by the Board of Governors of the Fed and are a clear guide to the future US interest rate policy.
Support and resistance
Bollinger Bands indicator is directed horizontally. As there are no signals for a trend change, the pair tends to remain within the sideways channel.
Support levels: 1.5210 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1.5180 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).
Resistance levels: 1.5240 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands).
Trading tips
At present, it is recommended to open positions when the price reaches the borders of the channel. Thus, place Sell limit orders at the level of 1.5240 with targets at 1.5210 or 1.5180. Otherwise, place Buy limit orders at the level of 1.5180 with targets at 1.5210 or 1.5240.
USD/CAD: general review
Current trend
The pair is supported by increased expectations of an interest rates hike in the US in December. In addition, data on Manufacturing Sales that came out on Monday in Canada showed a significantly worse figure than predicted by economists. Manufacturing Sales shrank by 1.5% instead of a forecasted increase by 0.1%.
During the week, attention needs to be paid to the publication of the FOMC Minutes and data on the Consumer Price Index from Canada that could support the Canadian Dollar.
Support and resistance
The USD/CAD pair fell below its moving average with a 100 period that indicates a possible start of a downward trend. However, it should be noted that during the last week there were 2 failed breakdowns of the MA.
Support levels: 1.3274 (13 November lows).
Resistance levels: 1.3312 (moving average with 100 period).
Trading tips
Open short positions from the level of 1.3304 with the target at 1.3274 and stop-loss at 1.3312.
GBP/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the Pound fell against the US Dollar.
The USD was supported after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5% in line with expectations, while the Nonfarm Payrolls amounted to 211 thousands that was better than forecasted 200 thousands though less than the previous figure of 298 thousands. At the same time, yesterday’s data on the Consumer Credit Change showed a decrease to 15.98 billion Dollars, which was worse than its forecasts.
Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Industrial Production and BRC Retail Sales Monitor in the UK, and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism and JOLTS Job Openings in the US.
Support and resistance
The nearest support level is at 1.5000 (30 November lows).
The nearest resistance level is at 1.5080 (moving average with 50 period).
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1.5000 and stop-loss at 1.5080.
XAU/USD: pair in correction
Current trend
The price of gold remains under pressure after the publication of Friday’s data on the US labour market for November. The Unemployment Rate remained unchanged at 5.0%, while the Nonfarm Payrolls came out better than forecasts. The data indicates a stable condition of the labour market and gradual recovery of the US economy that removes last barriers for the Fed to hike interest rates this month. Fed Funds futures represent almost 80% probability of the rate hike in December.
Thus in the medium term amid gradual tightening of monetary policy in the US gold will continue falling.
Support and resistance
After reaching the key support level at 1070.00 (EMA144 on the monthly chart), the pair remains in correction that could continue to the levels of 1085.00 (EMA144), 1092.00 (EMA200 on the 4-hour chart), a breakout of which would send the pair to 1100.00 (EMA50 on the daily chart) and 1118.00 (23.6% Fibonacci correction).
On the daily chart, OsMA and Stochastic recommend long positions. On the 4-hour chart, Stochastic is also turning to purchases.
Support levels: 1070.00, 1060.00, 1053.00, 1050.00, 1045.00.
Resistance levels: 1085.00, 1092.00, 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00.
Trading tips
Pending sell orders can be placed from the level of 1085.00, 1092.00 with targets at 1070.00, 1060.00, 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1095.00, and from the level of 1060.00 with targets at 1050.00, 1010.00 and stop-loss at 1072.00.
Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1095.00 with targets at 1105.00, 1110.00, 1118.00 and stop-loss at 1090.00.
USD/JPY: review and forecast
Current trend
Though expectations of a hike at the upcoming Fed meeting are growing, the JPY has strengthened.
Futures traders are putting an 87.2% chance of a hike in US interest rates. At the same time, many investors suggest that a continuous growth in the USD has ended since a rate increase is obvious and already priced into the markets. In this situation, many market participants prefer taking profits on USD long positions.
The Japanese currency and the country's economy also gain support from low commodity prices.
Support and resistance
On the 4-hour chart, the price has formed a Pin-bar that suggests a possible correction after downward movement.
Support levels: 121.00, 120.50, 120.00.
Resistance levels: 122.00, 122.30, 123.00.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 121.00 with targets at 120.50, 120.00 and stop-loss at 121.20.
Long positions can be opened from the level of 122.00 with targets at 122.30, 123.00 and stop-loss at 121.70.
XAU/USD: general review
Current trend
Yesterday the pair was trading in the range 1076.43-1069.34 and closed at opening levels, but today managed to overcome the support level at 1072.23 and falling.
Today data on Retail Sales is due in the US. According to forecasts, the index will grow by 0.2%, which if confirmed will pressure the XAU/USD pair.
Support and resistance
On the daily chart, the pair is trading between the middle and bottom MA’s of Bollinger Bands. Moving averages with 50, 100 and 144 periods remain above the price and directed down indicating a downward trend. MACD histogram is in the negative zone suggesting a fall. ADX also signals the decline as DI lines cross each other, while the ADX line is moving down.
Support levels: 1055.87 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands), 1053.21, 1046.57 (last week low).
Resistance levels: 1072.23 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 1086.41 (this week high), 1096.71, 1105.84, 1125.28, 1138.12.
Trading tips
Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1055.87 and stop-loss at 1072.23.
Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1072.23 with the target at 1086.41 and stop-loss at 1067.00.