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Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of NZD/USD NZD/USD, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The price has overcome the levels of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be May maximum of the Chinkou Span line at 0.8456. The nearest support level is still Tenkan-Sen line (0.8313).
NZD/USD, D1 On the daily chart we can see almost the same situation. Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line and they are both directed steeply upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair has been rising since the beginning of the month almost without pullbacks. The next target for the Bulls is one of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line at 0.8533. The nearest support level is still Tenkan-Sen line (0.8191).
Key levels Support levels: 0.8313, 0.8191. Resistance levels: 0.8456, 0.8533. Trading tips Both charts indicate the continuation of the uprising movement. Targets for the new long positions will be at the levels of 0.8456 and 0.8533. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
GBP/USD: QE3 program will not be cut back 1. Current trend Despite the forecasts, the US Fed leaders led by Ben Bernanke decided to leave volume of program to purchase state bonds at the previous level. As a result the pair GBP/USD hit several strong resistance levels on its way and sharply soared up to the level of 1.6160. However today, following the release of poor data on British retail sales the pair went down. Now the British currency traded at the level of 1.6070 against the USD. Attention shall be paid to the US labour market statistics, which can cause further weakening of the USD. 2. Important levels: support and resistance The Pound has reached the nine-month highs and any negative data from UK will cause the decline, as the currency is significantly overbought. Technical analysis show that the pair reached the upper limit of the ascending channel and we can expect that now it will go down to support level of 1.5880 (lower limit of the channel) In the long-term the pair will continue to grow if the USD will not receive strong support. 3. Best entry/exit points Today it is advisable to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5880. Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.5880 with the target of 1.6100. 4. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone below the signal line and is directed upward, indicating the beginning of downward correction.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend The main reason for the rise of Euro is the decision of the US Fed not to change the volume of quantitative easing, keeping it at the level of 85 billion USD per month. According to the FRS chairman, growth rate of the US economy can slow down this year; therefore it is very risky to reduce QE3. Unemployment claims has increased by 15 000 last week, it is an additional signal of decline of the US business activity. Another indication of the decline of economic growth rate is the drop in yields of the 10-year bonds. Next FOMC meeting will be held in November and investors hope that there will be adopted final decision on QE3 program. On the other hand, the rise of the USD and weakening of Euro can be caused by the resolution on Syria, which will be made next week. Levels of support and resistance The Unified European currency continues trading in the ascending channel. The chart H4 shows that the pair EUR/USD had reached its upper border at the level of 1.3565, and after that corrected to the level of 1.3532. Trading tips It is recommended to open long positions from the level of 1.3570 with profit taking at the level of 1.3685 and stop-orders at 1.3545.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst
XAU/USD: review and forecast Current trend Recent FOMC decision to keep interest rate at the same level as well as the volumes of QE program has given a major impetus to commodity market. Fed Reserve has also lowered the numbers of estimated economic growth, ensuring investors that stimulating monetary policy will go on. Today the price of the instrument has consolidated around the level of 23.6% of Fibonacci lines (1355.00). Further movement of the price will be determined by the fundamental data. However, China, the main consumer of the physical gold, has holidays and volumes of trading are decreasing. Support and resistance Important resistance level is the maximum of 11th of September (1368.00). If the price overcomes this level, the next obstacle for the Bulls will be psychological limit of 1400.00. The next target for the buy orders will be at 1415.50. The pair is supported by the correction level of 23.6% of Fibonacci lines (1355.00). The next support level is 100-day MA at 1348.00. After breakdown of this level Bears will try to reach the level of 55-day MA (1338.00). Trading tips Without main consumer of the real gold the rise of the instrument is highly unlikely. Short positions with targets at support levels would be a wise choice.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAG/USD: технический анализ Текущая динамика В первой половине прошлой недели серебро торговалось в узком диапазоне, но после резкого скачка в среду цена на металл выросла до уровня 23.40. К концу недели пара XAG/USD вновь опустилась и сейчас торгуется в районе 21.75. Мощной поддержкой является уровень 21.55, совпадающий с уровнем Фибоначчи 61,8%. «Медведи» несколько раз пытались преодолеть этот уровень, но их попытки не увенчались успехом. Стохастик находится в зоне перепроданности и даёт сигнал на покупку. Сигнальная линия MACD находится в положительной зоне, но направлена вниз. Если она пересечет нулевую линию, мы получим сигнал на продажу. Уровни поддержки и сопротивления Линиями сопротивления на данный момент являются 22.00, 22.25, 22.60 и 22.90. Поддержкой выступают уровни 21.50 , 21.20 и 21.00. Торговые рекомендации На данном этапе «медведям» вряд ли удастся преодолеть уровень 21.50, на этом уровне стоит выставить лимитные ордера на покупку. Лимитные ордера на продажу можно выставлять на уровнях 22.90 и 23.40.
Илья Лащенко Аналитик группы компаний LiteForex
GBP/USD: Dollar will slowly strengthen Current trend At the end of last week the British currency gradually lost its positions against the USD. Weak macro-economic British statistics and decreasing demand for the overbought Pound was dragging the currency down. New trading week started with the growth due to negative data on European currency. Investors rushed to sell Euro and buy the British currency, so the pair GBP/USD rose up to the level of 1.6050. Today British economic calendar is uneventful with the exception of the speech of the member of the Monetary Policy Committee Ben Broadbent at the end of the trading day. During the American session US PMI manufacturing will become known, which is expected to be positive. Market volatility is not expected to be high because of the lack of fundamental news. In the medium-term the pair will continue to decline amid strengthening of the American dollar. The data on the US GDP and US labour market is scheduled for the release this week; experts believe that the data will be positive. Support and resistance Technical analysis shows that the pair GBP/USD continues to move in the ascending channel. At the moment the Pound consolidates above the moving average line (1.6000), which is a support level. If this level is broken down, the pair will continue to decline to the lower limit of the channel 1.5880. After downward correction we can expect a new ascending wave. In the medium-term the pair will grow up to the key resistance level of 1.6300, which have been the local highs since September 2011. Indicators confirm downward correction in the pair. MACD histogram on the four-hour chart is below the signal line and is directed downward, forming a strong sell signal. Trading tips In the current situation is it advisable to open short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.5880. Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.5880 with the target of 1.6100; in the medium-term it is recommended to take profit at the level of 1.6280.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 Let’s look at the four-hour chart. Tenkan-sen line has crossed Kijun-sen line from above, forming Dead Cross pattern. However downward impetus wasn’t strong enough and the price is still stuck between red line and blue one. Chinkou Span is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The closest resistance level is Kijun-sen line at 0.9432. If the price continues its fall, the next support will be at the upper border of the cloud (0.9316).
AUD/USD, D1 On the daily chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen and they are both horizontal. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart, current cloud is ascending. Last week the pair had broken through the upper border of the cloud and consolidated above it. The next target for the Bears is 0.9520, the closest support level is Tenkan-sen line at 0.9375.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9316, 0.9375. Resistance levels: 0.9432, 0.9520. Trading tips he signal of the trend reversal on the four-hour chart will be the cross between Chinkou Span line and the price chart. However daily chart indicates the development of the uprising trend. The target for the long-term buy orders is 0.9520. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
USD/CAD: news from the New World will cause another wave of decline Current trend Since last Friday the pair has been trading near the upper limit of the descending channel, preparing to decline further down. The development of a new wave in the “bearish” movement will be supported by macro-economic statistics from US and Canada. It is expected that retail sales in Canada will grow up to 0.6%, while consumer confidence index in the USA will drop. If the pair breaks down resistance level of 1.0270, which is near the moving average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator, a sell signal will be formed. Quotes will go to the lower line of the indicator (1.0202) encountering resistance at the level of 1.0251 (local lows). The pair will not have sufficient momentum to continue further decline. Support and resistance Strong support level is the upper limit of the descending channel. Support levels are 1.0270 and 1.0251. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions with the target of 1.0202. Stop-loss can be placed at the level of 1.0310.
Kamil Avad Analyst
Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex
NZD/USD: the pair has switched to the decline Current trend This week, quotes of the pair are declining. American dollar is regaining losses, caused by US Fed decision to extend validity of the quantitative easing program. Today the price has reached the weekly highs at the level of 0.8218. Additional pressure on the NZD was caused by the negative data on the rise in trade balance deficit in New Zealand, which has reached 1191 million NZD in August. Support and resistance In the near future the pair is likely to fall to 0.8170 (61.8% Fibonacci). If this level is broken down, the decline may continue up to the levels of 0.8130, 0.8075, 0.8030 and 0.7970 (level 50% Fibonacci). Upward correction can reach the level of 0.8280. Technical indicators confirm a chance of downward movement in price. Bollinger bands are directed downward; the price chart has recently broken down the bottom line of the indicator, suggesting minor ascending correction up to 0.8280. MACD histogram has moved to the oversold zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic lines are entering oversold zone as well, forming a similar signal. Trading tips In the current situation it makes sense to open short positions at the current price with profit taking near 0.8075. Short-term long positions can be opened from the level of 0.8250 with profit taking at the level of 0.8280.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies