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USD/JPY: technical analysis Current trend USD/JPY continues to strengthen despite the fact that other major currency pair seem to be in the sideways trend. Last week the pair made several unsuccessful attempts to overcome the level of 99.00 and after fell to support level of 97.75. This level, which coincides with the level of 50% Fibonacci proved to be strong and prevented further decline in the pair. Now the instrument USD/JPY is in the ascending channel, tending to the level of 98.50 (level of 38.2% Fibonacci). Support and resistance The nearest resistance level is 98.50 is the main target for the “Bulls”. Next resistance levels are: 98.80, 99.00 and 99.40. Support levels: 98.20, 98.00, 97.75 and 97.50. Trading tips It is advisable to open short positions after breakdown of the level of 97.50. Pending sell orders are recommended at the level of 98.50. It also makes sense to open long positions above the level of 99.00.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
Gazprom: general analysis Current trend Gazprom bonds are still trading within an upward trend on the daily chart. The instrument has reached local highs at the level of 158.14 and then been corrected to the level of 155.50. After temporary relief in US budget, positive sentiments reign in American markets. Index S&P500 has hit a new maximum, affecting favourably Russian stock markets. Additional support stocks and indices can get from the reports of constantly growing US companies, such as McDonald’s. As the president of Dallas FRS had said, the volumes of QE3 program won’t be reduced any time soon. Economic conditions of United States are still unstable, and the growth demands a stimulus. Existing Home Sales index, for example, has decreased by 1.9% in September. Support and resistance The closest resistance level is 157.37. Support level is 154.63. Trading tips It is recommended to open long trades at the level of 157.50 with target around 159.00 and stop-losses at 157.25.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
GBP/USD: upward momentum has dried up Current trend Following significant decline in the USD caused by changes in the US credit rating, the USD started to regain positions. Experts are pretty confident that the decline in the USD will be short lived and by the end of this year the USD rate will significantly rise. Economic growth rate in Britain has slowed down compared to the growth rate in August and September; however the rate is still high. Market participant are waiting for the US labour market information. Favourable data on Nonfarm Payrolls can cause the decline in the pair to support level of 1.5950 (recent local lows and the level of 38.2 % Fibonacci). Support and resistance /b] MACD indicator confirms forecast for the downward movement: histogram on the daily chart is below the signal line and is directed downward. Support levels: 1.6100, 1.5950, 1.5880 and 1.5750. Resistance levels: 1.6200 and 1.6260. Trading tips Sell orders can be opened at the current price with profit taking near the level of .5950-1.5880. It is also advisable to place pending buy orders above the level of 1.6200 with profit taking at the level of 1.6400.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen, the blue line is directed downwards, while the red one becomes horizontal. Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. Resistance levels are Tenkan-sen (0.8990) and Kijun-sen (0.9036) lines. One of the previous minimum of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8907.
USD/CHF, H4, D1 The same picture is on the daily chart. Tenkan-sen line is below Kijun-sen line, Chinkou Span line is below the price chart; current cloud is descending. After a small correction the price has returned to the downward movement. Tenkan-sen (0.9050) line is the closest resistance level. One of the previous minimum of the Chinkou Span line is expected to be a support level at 0.8777.
Key levels Support levels: 0.8907, 0.8777. Resistance levels: 0.8990, 0.9036, 0.9050. Trading tips On the both charts we can see a slowdown of the trend movement. It’s a good opportunity to open new short trades with targets at 0.8907 and 0.8777. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis Current trend Contrary to the expectations, yesterday’s data on the number of jobs outside agricultural sector in the USA was negative. The index amounted to 148 thousand against the forecast of 180 thousand. This fact caused significant decline o=in the USD and the pair EUR/USD went up to the level of 1.3791. Some US data is scheduled for the release today: prices of imports are expected to grow by 0.3%, housing price index may reduce to 0.8% and the most important indicator: applications for unemployment benefits can decrease by 18 thousand. Support and resistance On the daily chart the pair faces resistance at the upper limit of the ascending channel. The pair may experience correction to the lower limit of the channel (1.3396), which is near the bottom line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. In the long-term uptrend can continue up to 1.4258. Support levels are 1.3548 and 1.3396. Resistance level is at the price highs of 1.3793, which is near the upper limit of the channel. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions in anticipation of upcoming correction. Targets levels are 1.3548 and 1.3396. Limit buy order can be placed at the level of 1.3396
Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
USD/CAD: analysis and forecast Current trend Yesterday the pair USD/CAD has risen abruptly after the release of Bank of Canada Rate Statement. The interest rate remained the same to the surprise of the market players. BoC used to say, that poor economic conditions led to the hard-edged monetary policy. Support and resistance The weakening of the “Canadian” made the pair break through the both MAs, of 13 and 100 periods. The pair was stopped by the resistance level of 1.0400. The closest target for the price is the point of 1.0420 (10th November highs). Support levels are Fibonacci lines of 23,6% (1.0365) and 50% (1.0334), which coincides with 100-days and 13-days MAs. Trading tips It is recommended to buy a the level of 1.0365 with targets around 1.0420 and stop-losses at the level of 1.0334.
Andrey Cherkas Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: trend reversal Current trend Yesterday the pair GBP/USD fell to support level of 1.6120, then pushed off from it and started to grow slowly. The Pound was supported by positive data on mortgage lending in the UK and weak US statistics. Today the pair broke down key resistance level of 1.6200; however the British currency is not strong enough to consolidate above this level. The Pound is still under pressure from slowdown of national economic growth. Today, the following data is scheduled for release: industrial orders expectations in the UK, initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US, business activity index in the US manufacturing sector and the US index of sales of new homes. Support and resistance /b] On the four-hour chart there is a pattern “head and Shoulders”. If the pair fell to the level of the “neck” (1.6120), the pair is likely to fall to the key support level of 1.5950 (level of 38.2% Fibonacci). In the medium-term the USD can strengthen and the pair GBP/USD can fall to support levels of 1.5880 and 1.5750. MACD indicator confirms forecast of trend reversal and the beginning of downtrend: histogram is below the signal line and is directed downward. Support levels: 1.6100, 1.6000, 1.5880 and 1.5750. Resistance levels: 1.6200 and 1.6260. Trading tips It is advisable to place sell orders at the current price with profit taking near 1.5880-1.5750.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
NZD/USD: technical analysis Current trend At the beginning of this week the pair NZD/USD reached new highs of 0.8550, pushed off from the upper boundary of the ascending channel and fell sharply to the level of 0.8300. Currently the NZD is testing the lower level of the ascending channel, breakout of this level will enable further decline in the pair. MACD is in the negative zone, the signal line is directed downward; volume of histogram continues to increase. Stochastic has entered into oversold zone; however, it indicates downward movement. Support and resistance Resistance levels: 0.8335 and 0.8360, the latter one coincides with the level of correction at 23.6% Fibonacci. Support levels: 0.8300, 08250 and 0.8200. Trading tips It is recommended to open short positions below the level of 0.8300 with the target of 0.8200. If the price break down the level of 0.8400, it is advisable to place buy orders.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
EUR/USD: downward correction is possible Current trend This week the pair EUR/USD has been rising and reached November 2011 highs at the level of 1.3831. Investors are still disappointed by the negative data from US labour market which will surely postpone QE# program curtailment. However today Dollar may receive support from the Durable Goods Orders release. This indicator is expected to rise considerably from 0.1% to 2% and strengthen American currency. Support and resistance The price chart is moving towards 1.3855 (upper MA of Bollinger Bands), but after favourable fundamental data from US the pair may fall down to the level of 1.3770 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands). General trend is still “bullish”. On the four-hour chart technical indicators confirm the possibility of the rise. Bollinger bands and Stochastic lines are directed upwards, MACD histogram is in overbought zone. Trading tips It is recommended to open short trades at 1.3810 with take-profits around 1.3770. At the same level pending buy orders may be placed.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/JPY: the pair will grow Current trend Last Friday the pair fell to the level of 96.93. The decline was caused by the drop in stock index Nikkei. However, by the closing of the session the pair corrected up to the level of 97.45. At the beginning of this week the Yen was at the level of 97.73 and is now trading near 97.60. Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan said that the government is going to buy assets until inflation reaches the level of 2%. Support and resistance The nearest support level is 97.50, next support levels are 97.25 and 97.00; the latter one is the main target of the “bears”. Resistance levels are 97.75, 98.00 and 98.50. Trading tips It is likely that the pair USD/JPY will continue to grow. It is advisable to place long positions above the level of 97.75 with the target of 98.50.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies