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USD/CAD: USA budget deficit will weaken the pair 1. Current trend The pair has been trading in the downward channel over the past nine days, which was provoked by the decrease in demand for the American dollar. It is highly possible that the pair will continue to decline at the opening of the American trading session, since forecast for today’s statistics data is not encouraging. Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits in the US can increase by 9 thousand; it seems that federal budget deficit will preserve and spending can exceed revenues by 155.3 billion USD. 2. Support and resistance Resistance level- is the upper limit of the descending channel. The nearest support is the lows of this trading week at the level of 1.0305, which is close to the lower line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. Today’s US statistics can make the pair break down this level and fall to strong support level, which is lows of August. The pair is unlikely to go down below the level of 1.0274. 3. Trading tips Amid expectations of the negative data from US as a daily strategy it is recommended to open short positions with the target of 1.0274.
Kamil Avad Analyst
XAG/USD: analysis and forecast [1. Current trend Quotes of silver has declined during this week and reached the four-week lows at the level of 21.70 on Thursday. The decline in rate was associated with the reduction in number of claims for unemployment benefits in the US, which, for the first time in a great while, was less than 300 thousand. Investors received a hope that phasing out economic stimulus program can be implemented and of which it may be announced at Fed meeting next week. 2. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart Bollinger bands are directed downward; the price chart has broken down the lower line, showing ascending correction to the level of 22.10 or probably up to 22.70. MACD histogram is in the oversold zone (20), the line K% has crossed the line D% from bottom to top and has formed a sell signal.
On the daily chart Bollinger bands demonstrate divergence confirming downtrend. The price chart has broken down the lower line of the indicator, suggesting probability of ascending correction. MACD histogram is preparing to move to the oversold zone and form a sell signal. Stochastic lines have moved to the oversold zone, also forming a sell signal.
3. Trading tips Based on the technical indicators the pair may experience correction to the levels of 22.10 and 22.70. However, in the medium-term downward movement will continue up to the targets of 20.60 and 19.70. In the current conditions it is advisable to open short-term long positions from the current level with profit taking at 22.70. Short positions are recommended if the price consolidates below the level of 21.70 with profit taking at the level of 20.60. Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst
EUR/USD: Euro is under pressure of economic recession 1. Current trend Yesterday the pair tried to exceed the key resistance level, however poor European macro-economic data continues to put pressure on the Pound. In addition, positive statistics on the American labour market, released yesterday, was a surprise for many investors. Number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell up to the level of 292 thousand against the forecast of growth up to 330 thousand. Fuel to the fire was also added by the situation in Italy, where confrontation is Parliament is still going on. Economic statistics show that Europe is still in recession and leaders of EU shall think of new measures to stabilize economic situation. Today the meeting of Finance Ministers of EU countries and members of European Group will be held, where the issue of slow pace of economic recovery will be raised. It is also worth of paying attention to the publication of foreign trade balance in Europe, In the afternoon some of US economic news will become known, including the data on retail sales and producer price index. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Judging by the latest European statistics, economic situation in EU remains tense and even such giant as Germany shows weak indices in all sectors. Given the situation it can be assumed that in the medium-term the pair will drop to resistance levels of 1.3230, 1.3180. 3. Best entry/exit points As the medium-term strategy it is recommended to place short positions with profit taking at the level of 1.3100. Pending buy orders can be placed from the level of 1.3320 with the targets of 1.3230 and 1.3180. 4. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart MACD indicator gives a sell signal; histogram is in the positive zone under the signal line and is directed downward.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of AUD/USD AUD/USD, H4 На четырёхчасовом графике линия Tenkan-sen находится выше Kijun-sen. После продолжительного роста цена откатилась ниже уровня Kijun-sen, который становится сопротивлением (0.9227). Линия Chinkou Span приближается к графику цены сверху, текущее облако ― восходящее. Ближайшее препятствие на пути цены вниз ― верхняя граница облака (0.9134-0.9154).
AUD/USD, D1 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line. After long growth the price has consolidated under Kijun-sen line which becomes a resistance level at 0.9227. Chinkou Span is approaching the price chart from above; current cloud is ascending. The next obstacle for the price on its way down will be upper border of the cloud (0.9134-0.9154).
Key levels Support levels: 0.9134-0.9154, 0.9163. Resistance levels: 0.9227, 0.9319. Trading tips On the four-hour chart we can see a development of trend reversal. Short positions can be opened after confirmation signal from Chinkou Span line. On the daily chart the price is still within the cloud; it is not advised to open new long-term trades. Pending sell orders can be placed at the lower border of the cloud, pending buy orders ― at the upper one. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
Weekly analytical video review for currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY
Weekly analytical video review for instruments EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY based on fundamental analysis and technical indicators (MACD, Stochastic, Bollinger Bands). Daily reviews and forecast are available at LiteForex site Forex Trading : Top Forex Broker : LiteForex
GBP/USD: correction will follow the growth 1. Current trend of GBP/USD After sharp upward leap at the opening trading session the pair calmed down and consolidated at the level of 1.5970. By Monday night the British currency started to decline against the USD and completed trading day at the level of 1.5920. The decline was caused by positive US economic data. Industrial production remained at the previous level of 0.4% in August, while capacity utilization increased up to 77.8%. Attention today shall be paid to the British macro-economic statistics: consumer price index, retail price index and producer price index. American statistics can show the rise in real wages and stability in the housing market index. 2. Important levels: support and resistance Latest US statistics shows gradual economic recovery in the country. It is likely that in the nearest future the USD will start to strengthen. The rise in the USD and overbought in the Pound can slow down the rise in the pair. In the medium-term the rise can shift to the decline to support level of 1.5750. 3. Best exit/entry points In the current situation it is advisable to place pending sell orders from the level of 1.6000 with profit taking at the level of 1.5800 (1.5750). 4. Supporting facts On the daily chart MACD histogram is in the positive zone below the signal line and is directed downward, indicating the beginning of descending wave.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: Review 1. Current trend Rate of the crude oil Brent is still decreasing in anticipation of FOMC meeting, which will determine key interest rate. This morning Brent has dropped down to the level of 109.66 thanks to the resolution of Syrian conflict. Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry have come to understanding of the diplomatic solution and chemical weapon disposal. American government rejects military intervention and chemical weapon must be exported from Syria or disposed until the middle of the next year. 2. Levels of support and resistance Support levels: 108.80, 107.90. Resistance levels: 111.00, 110.35, 109.66. 3. Trading tips If today's fundamental data from US is positive, the rate of Brent will go up. I would recomend to enter the market with pending buy orders at the level of 109.80 with stop-losses at the next resistance level (110.35). Instrument won't be very volatile before FOMC meeting, so I suggest small lot sizes or even to stay of trades.
Anton Karat Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
AUD/USD: инвесторы в ожидании результатов заседания FOMC 1. Current trend The minutes of the September’s meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, which was published recently, has puzzled market participants. RBA does not deny that in the near future another lowering of the interest rate can take place; however no one clearly expressed that the lowering is inevitable. This fact has not caused strong fluctuation in the market; however the Australian dollar has slightly declined in price against its American counterpart. Economic situation in the country is not too good, therefore the decline in the pair may continue. Investors’ attention today is focused on the outcome of two-day meeting of FOMC, which will steer movement direction of the American currency. 2. Levels of support and resistance At the moment the pair is trading near the level of 0.9350. The nearest resistance levels are 0.9375 and 0.9400. If the latter is broken down, the “bulls” can go up to 0.9320, 0.9300 and 0.9275. 3. Trading tips Further movement in the pair will be determined by today’s FOMC meeting. Buy orders shall be placed after the breakdown of the level of 0.9400, sell orders are recommended below the level of 0.9275.
Ilya Lashenko Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.
“Gazprom”: general analysis The most important news for today is decision on QE3 program and its curtailment in USA. The exact numbers will be announced at the end of the day, but we expect that FRS will reduce financial support by 5 billion dollars. The inflation is under control in USA, so Fed Reserve can freely manipulate the volumes of the quantitive easing program. According to experts, Russian bond market is appealing to the foreign investors and new calculation system can attract massive capitals. “Gazprom” bonds have risen by 0.96% since the beginning of the trading session. On the daily chart we can see that the price has reached a resistance level at 148.00 and bounced down. It may be a first sign of the trend reversal. Long positions can be opened after consolidation of the price above the level of 148.00. Stop Loss orders can be placed at 147.85 and take-profits at 149.85.
Dmitry Agurbash Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis 1. Current trend Yesterday the pair failed to leave the channel 1.3330-1.3370 despite the increased volumes of the net purchases of long-term US securities and the rise in the purchases of US securities by foreigners. Both indicators significantly rose compared to previous values, which suggest that interest to American economy among investors is increasing. Attention today shall be paid to the data on number of permits to construct and construction of new houses. According to analysts, both indices will increase. Later, the US Fed decision on the discount rate will become known, which is likely to remain unchanged. The most significant influence of the UDS rate will be provided by press conference of the Federal Reserve System, where future monetary policy will be determined. Technical analysis shows that on the four-hour chart the pair is trading within the ascending channel; Triangle pattern is being formed, which supports “Bullish” trend. If its upper line is broken down, the pair may grow up to 1.3451. Additional support to Euro will be provided by tomorrow’s data on a number of applications for unemployment benefits 2. Levels of support and resistance The nearest resistance is at the level of 1.3387. If this level is broken down, the price can go up to the August highs of 1.3451. Support is at the level of 1.3334 and near which is located the average line of “Bollinger bands” indicator. 3. Trading tips As a trading strategy I would recommend to open long positions at the current price and place protective stop-orders near 1.3334. If resistance level of 1.3387 is broken down and if the price consolidates above this level, it will make sense to move stop-order in the black.
Kamil Avad Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies.