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GBP/USD: review 1. Fundamental data Due to the Head of BOE speech the pair GBP/USD has slightly decreased. Mark Carney has stated that interest rate will be raised if the unemployment rate exceeds the level of 7%. He also announced that the government can start a new round of monetary easing if economic indices drop down. Yesterday the pair was under pressure of the Syrian conflict. David Cameron has convened urgent meeting of the House of Commons to explain the necessity of military intervention to Syria. But the Parliament has suddenly declined the proposal of Prime Minister, and Pound has regained its positions. 272 supported military action, 285 were against. 2. Support and resistance The pair is trading above the level of 38.2% of Fibonacci lines (1.5483). If the level is broken through, the price will move towards 1.5420. Support levels are 1.5546 and 1.5580. 3. Trading tips Mortgage Approvals index didn’t meet investors’ expectations, so market players are going to pay attention to the US Personal Spending index. The price is expected to test the level of 1.5420. I would recommend to place sell pending orders at the level of 1.5447 with take-profits at the support level.
Anton Kharat Analyst
EUR/USD: general analysis 1. Current trend At the end of the last trading week American currency has strengthened its positions thanks to the rather high demand for the Dollar and positive macroeconomic data from USA. For example, GDP index has risen by 2.5% exceeding the expectations. The decrease of unemployment claims can also be a positive sign. According to Fibonacci lines the pair will be corrected to the level of 38.2%. At the beginning of the current trading session the pair went up bouncing off the support line at 1.3185. On the four-hour chart we can see a development of the downwards channel though the next movement of the price can be uprising. Due to the official day-off in States fundamental data affecting pair movements will be from Eurozone. Analysts expect the rise of the manufacturing indices of Spain and Italy. Tomorrow’s stats from USA can push the national currency up. Construction spending index will probably rise indicating the development of this sector. 2. Support and resistance Important support level is 1.3185. Bouncing of this level the price can go all the way up to the level of 2.6% of Fibonacci lines (1.3288). Second wave of the correction can reach the level of 1.3103 (50% of Fibonacci lines). 3. Trading tips As a trading strategy I would recommend to buy at the current price with targets at 1.3288. Do not forget the stop-losses, Dollar can strengthen and the pair will fall to the level of 1.3103.
Kamil Avad Analyst
Brent: Review 1. Current trend Last trading session Brent has ended at the level of $114.00. Crude oil has been weakening last Friday due to the positive sentiment concerning Syrian conflict. Next trading session has been started with a gap; Brent has opened this week at $112.33. As you can remember the instrument had hit six-month highs on 28th of August at $117.27. Though USA doesn’t give up on its plans of military intervention, oil market remains stable. Brent is supported by the China macroeconomic data. Manufacturing index has risen first time for the 4 month, indicating a development of expansion rate of Chinese economy. 2. Support and resistance Support levels: 112.20, 111.00. Resistance levels: 113.60, 115.10.
Alexander Freis Analyst
Forex: Ichimoku Clouds. Review of USD/CHF USD/CHF, H4 On the four-hour chart Tenkan-sen line is above Kijun-sen line and they are both directed upwards. Chinkou Span line is above the price chart; current cloud is ascending. The pair has slowed down its uprising movement but stays above the Tenkan-sen line (0.9344). One of the previous maximums of Chinkou Span line is expected to be a resistance level at 0.9385.
USD/CHF, D1 Let’s look at the daily chart. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines are crossed prior to Golden Cross formation. The price has consolidated above Kijun-sen line (0.9281), which is now a support level. Chinkou Span has crossed the price chart from below, current cloud is descending. The next obstacle for the price on its way up will be the lower border of the cloud at 0.9439.
Key levels Support levels: 0.9344, 0.9281. Resistance levels: 0.9385, 0.9439. Trading tips On the four-hour chart Ichimoku lines indicate the development of the uprising movement. On the daily chart we can see a reversal of the trend. Targets for the long positions are 0.9385, 0.9439. Anastasiya Glushkova Analyst
GBP/USD: UK economic recovery will strengthen Pound 1. Current trend of GBP/USD Thanks to favourable fundamental data the Pound has started the week with the rise. Construction PMI has increased up to the level of 57.2 points, exceeding the expectations. Besides, the demand for the Pound is growing stronger due to the economic recovery. The pair has bounced off the lower border of the price channel and is strengthening now. Today we don’t expect high volatility because of the lack of important releases in trader’s calendar. Though at the beginning of the American session the attention should be paid to the Manufacturing PMI and Construction Spending publications. On Thursday BOE interest rate will be released; experts predict that the rate will remain the same but Carney speech may support national currency. 2. Important levels: support and resistance We expect the correction within the range of 1.5500-1.5600. On Thursday and Friday after US data release the pair will go down to the key support level 1.5500, and then GBP/USD will return to the rise. In medium-term scenario British currency will raise against Dollar. On the daily chart the price has reached the lower border of the channel and is going to rise up to the level of 1.5750, in medium-term scenario — to 1.5880. 3. Best exit/entry points I would recommend to open long trades with Take Profit orders at 1.5650, 1.5750. Pending orders can be placed at 1.5500 with targets at 1.5750; in medium-term scenario profit can be taken at the level of 1.5880. 4. Supporting facts On the daily chart MACD histogram is in positive zone under the signal line and is directed downwards, indicating downward correction and a possibility of further rise.
Dmitry Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
USD/JPY: the pair will rise 1. Current trend of USD/JPY The pair USD/JPY has started the week with a rise gaining more than 100 points. The weakening of the Yen was caused by the fundamental data. Monetary base in Japan in August has reached the maximum since 1973 года, increasing by 42%. From the other hand American dollar has been supported by the suspension of military intervention in Syria. Obama waits for the Congress authorization. 2. Important levels: support and resistance The pair is moving towards upper line of the Bollinger Bands indicator; this line is a resistance level at 99.80. Today we expect the price to go up to the levels 99.80, 100.00 and 100.20. The pair can be strengthening by the US economic statistics. According to the experts, Construction Spending index will rise up to the 0,3%, and Manufacturing Prices index will decrease but still stay above the level of 50 points. Regarding the situation I would recommend to open long trades at the level of 99.60 and with targets around 100.20. 3. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart technical indicators give controversial signals. Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, the price chart is moving towards the upper line of the indicator. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are directed downwards, forming a signal to sell.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
GBP/USD: Pound will strengthen 1. Current trend This Tuesday British currency was slowly ascending. The currency was supported by high demand for the Pound and favourable data on Construction PMI. After US statistics release the Pound lost some of its positions. ISM Manufacturing PMI has increased, proving wrong pessimistic forecasts; Construction Spending index has also increased, indicating recovery of this sector. Last trading day GBP/USD has ended at 1.5550. Today pound/dollar has started session with another rise and reached the level of 1.5590, regardless forecasts of Services PMI decrease. Investors’ attention is drawn to the GDP data and Retail Sales publications. In USA Trade Balance and Crude Oil Inventories are going to be released today. 2. Support and resistance GBP/USD is under pressure of Dollar strengthening and the end of seasonal recess. However British economy is recovering, national currency is rising and the potential of growth is still strong. This Friday we can witness a little pull-back if labour market data from USA is positive, but then Pound will rise again. Technical and fundamental factors predict further rise to the levels 1.5750 and 1.5880. The pair is trading now at the lower border of the uprising channel and is going to move towards its upper border at 1.5880. 3. Exit/entry points Long positions can be opened at current price with Take profit orders at 1.5650 and 1.5750. Pending orders can be placed at 1.5500 with targets at 1.5750, in medium-term scenario profit should be taken at 1.5880. 4. Technical indicators On the daily chart MACD histogram is in positive zone under signal line and is directed upwards, indicating the end of the downward correction and further rise.
Dmitriy Likhachev Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
Brent: review 1. Current trend The rate of the crude oil Brent is depends on the Middle East situation. Yesterday’s reports of missile launch in Mediterranean caused the raise of the Brent rate up to the level $115.90. Later it was confirmed, that the launch was a test of Israel anti-missile defense system. Though Brent stays rather high, we don’t expect a decline any time soon. Unclear situation with Syrian conflict will support the instrument. President Obama decided to get official authorization of the military intervention from the Congress. Though congressmen will work on the question on 9th of September after the end of summer recess. 2. Support and resistance Support levels: 115.10, 113.60, 112.20. Resistance levels: 116.50, 117.80.
Alexander Freis Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
XAG/USD: analysis and forecast 1. Current trend This week silver has been trading with high volatility. On Wednesday the price has reached one-week highs at 24.47, but on Thursday it went back to the level of 23.40. 2. Technical indicators On the four-hour chart Bollinger Bands are almost horizontal. The price is moving within descending channel towards the lower line of the indicator. Further fall down to the level of 23.10 is expected. MACD histogram is in oversold zone, its volumes are increasing. Stochastic lines are in overbought zone (20), but the signal to sell hasn’t been formed yet.
On the daily chart Bollinger Bands are directed upwards, the price is moving towards MA at 23.10. If the level is broken through the pair will go further down. MACD histogram is in overbought zone, but it has crossed the signal line from above, givig a signal to sell. Stochactic’s line K% has crossed D% line from above, giving another signal to sell. 3. Trading tips According to technical analysis we should expect the fall down to the levels 23.10, 22.65 and even 22.20. Short positions can be opened at current price with Take Profit orders at 22.65.
Dmitriy Zolotov Analyst of LiteForex Group of Companies
EUR/USD: general analysis 1. Current trend The pair is growing with the support of lower border of the channel. The price chart has crossed middle line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, forming a signal to buy. Economic calendar is full of fundamental releases that could push Euro up. Investors expect the statistics from US to be negative. Non-Farm Employment Change rate may decrease to 175 000. Unemployment claims will increase a little. Factory Orders index and Non-Manufacturing PMI are also worth attention. In Europe traders are waiting for the Mario Draghi press conference, he should determine future monetary policy, though analysts believe the interest rate will remain at the same level of 0.5%. Another factor that may affect the price is US Congress authorization of military intervention in Syria. 2. Support and resistance The support level is at 1.3187, close to the middle MA of Bollinger Bands indicator. The resistance level will be at the local maximum (1.3218). 3. Technical indicators Signal line of the MACD indicator has left the histogram zone and is directed upwards, giving a signal to buy. 4. Trading tips Regarding yesterdays releases from USA I would recommend to find entry points to sell and open short trades with targets at 1.3063. Pending sell orders can be placed at 1.3218 and 1.3251
Kamil Avad Analyst