Eur/usd - page 350
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Euro registered a neutral trading against the dollar on Thursday. The single currency kept the lower levels reached in the previous session and the pair continued to trade in a very narrow range. Short-term indicators are in favor of the euro. In this case it can be expected a break of the resistance at 1.0969. Thursday session started at a price of 1.0863 and the ended at 1.0882. The difference between the lowest and highest value for the day was 63 pips.
Yesterday the EURUSD initially fell but found enough buying pressure to turn around and closed in the green near the high of the day.
Today is the main event of the week for the pair with the US nonfarm payrolls and the unemployment rate later today, so we may expect some volatility.
The key levels to watch are 1.1097 (Resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.0958 (resistance), 1.0900 (Resistance,) 1.0819 (support) and 1.0622 (Support).
EUR/USD is dropping again, breaking the low of July 1.0810 next level is low of April at 1.0665.
The EUR/USD rebound from the support level at 1.0710 after the NFP. But next week we will have another story to follow up.
Long way downnn
EU Preview: Countdown to December ECB Meet III. Preliminary Q3 GDP data for the euro zone due next Friday will likely show that the region's modest recovery continued in the third quarter of this year, with 0.4% growth quarter-on-quarter, the same pace as in the first and second quarters. These marked the best performance since the first quarter of 2011. Such a result would mean that the euro area's economic output has moved within a narrow alley around 0.4% quarter-on-quarter for more nearly a year.
Annual GDP growth in the single currency region is expected to have reached 1.7% in Q3. It would be the best annual growth rate since Q2 2011.
"Reinforcing belief that euro zone GDP growth likely remained around 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, Markit's purchasing managers’ composite output index for euro zone manufacturing and services averaged 53.9 in the third quarter, which exactly matched the second-quarter average and was comfortably above the 50.0 level that indicates flat activity," Howard Archer, Chief European & UK Economist at IHS Economics, noted in his email to clients on Friday.
Preliminary data for Spain showed last week that GDP growth came in at 0.8% quarter-on-quarter, down from 1.0% quarter-on-quarter in Q2.
On Friday, we expect Q3 GDP figures around 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in Germany, almost the same as 0.4% in Q2. France's GDP is projected to improve to 0.5% quarter-on-quarter, having been only flat in Q2. Italy's GDP growth is seen stable at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter.
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EUR/USD Outlook: US Dollar Expected to Remain Stronger As the pair dropped nearly three big figures during the last week, pushed down by technical selling, favorable US data and stellar payrolls, the trend shifted to bearish and the US dollar is expected to continue strengthening in the near future, although some correction is likely, mostly due to oversold conditions on the pair.
The non-farm payrolls for October posted a 271,000 increase, sharply higher than the downwardly revised 137,000 in September and beating estimates of a 185,000 print. The unemployment rate ticked lower from 5.1% to 5.0% and hourly earnings improved to 0.4% month-on-month, while the yearly change slightly accelerated to 2.5% from a revised 2.3% previously, the Bureau of Labor Statistics advised on Friday. All three main indicators came out above market estimates.
Furthermore, the odds for a rate hike in December jumped above 70% after these superb data, and therefore the situation looks ripe for the Fed to raise at its next meeting, since it "needs" to see the market ready and prepared for the lift-off.
"The move has caused us to reassess our medium-term target for the currency pair which for some time we have maintained at 1.05. While it appears that this target could be hit far sooner than we had been predicting, there is every reason to suspect that the move in EUR/USD over the next few months will not be linear and that parity in EUR/USD could still be further away than it currently appears," analysts at Rabobank stated on Friday.
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German Trade Surplus Expands in Sept The trade surplus in the euro area's number one economy strengthened in the ninth month of 2015, according to the latest report from the nation's Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) released on Monday.
Germany's foreign trade, one of the components of the country's current account, generated a non-seasonally adjusted surplus of €22.9 billion in the reported period, higher than the €15.4 billion registered in the previous month.
Analysts had predicted a surplus of €20.0 billion.
After calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports rose 2.6% following a negative 5.2% growth in August.
Imports to Germany increased 3.6%, compared with a revised fall of 3.2% a month ago.
Furthermore, according to the provisional results from Deutsche Bundesbank, the country's current account - defined as the sum of the balance of trade, net income from abroad and net current transfers - rose to €25.1 billion, compared with a revised €13.3 billion in the preceding month.
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On Friday session the EURUSD plunged with a wide range and closed well in the red near the low of the day.
The pair breached below a daily support signaling that the bears are in control and the price may continue the downward trend although we may see a pullback before another push downward.
The key levels to watch are the 1.0900 (Resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.0898 (resistance) 1.0819 (support), a Fibonacci extension at 1.0703 (Support) and 1.0622 (Support).