Eur/usd - page 35
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Do you think it will continue falling ?
Don't think so. That was just one day
The Dollar is right at major Wkly support, only just noticed yesterday (as don't follow the Dollar so much as really should)
but generally when both the Dollar and Euro is at opposing support / resistance there is a big fall coming
when exactly though is anyone's guess, but usually sooner rather than later
although fairly sure the Market markers (and Ben Bernanke) will try to trick the majority somehow, especially now with all the US nonsense continuing...
EUR/USD Forecast October 7-11
EUR/USD reached a new 8 month high on the back of the US government shutdown, but soppted at resistance. Draghi’s speeches, Industrial data and the IMF meeting are the highlights of this week. Check out these events among others, and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD, now in a higher range.
The ECB left all rates unchanged postponing new policy moves until the fragile euro zone recovery strengthens. The ECB became concerned with rising market interest rates over the summer, and pledged to keep the benchmark rates at a minimum low for an extended period. And while the central bank remains ready to act with new LTROs, falling inflation is currently not a worry. Draghi’s content message add fuel to the EUR/USD fire, that was lit by the US government shutdown – an unresolved theme dominating the news.
*All times are GMT
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Fleeing Foreigners Impede Portugal’s Own Exit Plans
Portugal’s plan to leave its bailout program and return fully to international markets risks being hindered by some investors making their own exit.
Foreign money managers were net sellers in June and July after buying in May, increasing the proportion of securities owned by residents. Domestic banks held a record 33 billion euros ($45 billion) of the nation’s government debt on Aug. 31, European Central Bank data published last week showed.
“When investors decide to go out for a while, it takes a lot for them to go back in,” said Huw Worthington, a fixed-income strategist at Barclays Plc in London. “You need those foreign investors. Without them, Portugal issuing debt for longer maturities will be very difficult indeed.”
Portuguese bonds were the worst performers in the euro region in the third quarter as a rift in the government over budget policy threatened to derail plans to end reliance on emergency funding and avoid a second bailout package. Yields on the country’s 10-year securities, which breached 8 percent on July 3, exceed those of Ireland and Belgium combined even after the rate fell today to a one-month low of 6.5 percent.
The country is scheduled to leave its aid plan by June 2014, while fellow recipient Ireland is aiming to return fully to credit markets earlier. Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and Fitch Ratings all rate Portugal as non-investment grade, or junk. Ireland is rated junk only at Moody’s.
Portugal’s debt is forecast to peak at 127.8 percent of GDP this year, the European Union, ECB and International Monetary Fund in a joint statement yesterday after completing the country’s eighth and ninth reviews.
Public debt is “clearly” sustainable, Finance Minister Maria Luis Albuquerque said at yesterday’s press conference. The country plans to resume regular bond issuance next year and doesn’t rule out another bond sale this year, Albuquerque said. It also aims to do some debt exchanges, she said.
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Euro zone sentiment dips in October but remains positive
Euro zone sentiment fell in October after surging to its second strongest level ever in September but it remained in positive territory for a second consecutive month, a survey showed on Monday.
Sentix research group said its index tracking investor morale in the euro zone dropped to 6.1 points from 6.5 points in September. The reading fell well short of the consensus estimate in a Reuters poll for 8.0 points.
In September the index turned positive for the first time in more than two years and saw its second strongest rise since being introduced in 2003.
"After that record-breaking leap, there was a small drop of 0.4 points in October and that should be interpreted as stabilisation at a level that is now healthy again," Sentix said in a statement.
"That means annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the euro zone probably normalised in the current quarter because if the overall index has a value of zero, it means that optimism and pessimism about the economy are in balance."
The 17-country euro zone emerged from its longest-ever recession in the second quarter, expanding by 0.3 percent. It is expected to grow by around 0.2-0.3 percent per quarter through to the end of next year.
Sentix said the 907 investors it surveyed between October 2 and 5 were the most upbeat about the current situation since the same month two years ago, with a sub-index on this rising to -8.5 from -8.8 last month.
But they became more pessimistic about the future. A sub-index tracking expectations fell to 21.8 from 23.0 in September.
The index on the United States, the world's largest economy, fell significantly due to the government shutdown caused by a standoff between President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans over healthcare reforms.
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Greece Economy Set To Recover Next Year
The Greece economy will expand next year ending six years of recession, the 2014 draft budget statement showed Monday.
According to the draft, gross domestic product will grow 0.6 percent in 2014, before contracting 4 percent in 2013.
The government growth estimate for 2014 matched with the projection of the International Monetary Fund, while the 2013 forecast is better than the 4.2 percent fall estimated by the lender.
The budget deficit will be 2.4 percent of GDP next year and public debt will reach about 175 percent, the draft showed.
Further, the finance ministry said Athens is on the track to post a small surplus of EUR 340 million this year. The primary surplus, which excludes debt servicing costs, will then increase to EUR 2.8 billion or 1.6 percent of GDP next year, it said.
The budget shows the first signs of an exit from the crisis, said Deputy Finance Minister Christos Staikouras.
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German exports in August 2013: –5.4% on August 2012
Germany exported goods to the value of 85.3 billion euros and imported goods to the value of 72.2 billion euros in August 2013. Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that German exports decreased by 5.4% and imports by 2.2% in August 2013 on August 2012. Upon calendar and seasonal adjustment, exports increased by 1.0% and imports by 0.4% compared with July 2013.
The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of 13.1 billion euros in August 2013. In August 2012, the surplus had amounted to 16.3 billion euros. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of 15.6 billion euros in August 2013.
According to provisional results of the Deutsche Bundesbank, the current account of the balance of payments showed a surplus of 9.4 billion euros in August 2013, which included the balance of services (–3.8 billion euros), factor income net (+6.3 billion euros), current transfers (–3.6 billion euros), and supplementary trade items (–2.6 billion euros). In August 2012, the German current account showed a surplus of 13.2 billion euros.
In August 2013, Germany dispatched goods to the value of 47.1 billion euros to the Member States of the European Union (EU), while it received goods to the value of 44.7 billion euros from those countries. Compared with August 2012, dispatches to the EU countries decreased by 3.9% and arrivals from those countries by 0.9%. Goods to the value of 29.2 billion euros (–4.1%) were dispatched to the Euro area countries in August 2013, while the value of the goods received from those countries was 30.7 billion euros (–2.8%). In August 2013, goods to the value of 17.9 billion euros (–3.5%) were dispatched to EU countries not belonging to the Euro area, while the value of the goods which arrived from those countries was 14.1 billion euros (+3.5%).
Exports of goods to countries outside the European Union (third countries) amounted to 38.2 billion euros in August 2013, while imports from those countries totalled 27.5 billion euros. Compared with August 2012, exports to third countries decreased by 7.2% and imports from those countries by 4.3%.
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Slovenia may seek help for its faltering banks
The head of Slovenia's central bank, Bostjan Jazbec, has said it will consider asking for outside help if the country's funding costs stay high.
He also said Slovenia's GDP would shrink by 2.6% this year, more than April's 1.9% forecast.
Slovenia's banks are largely state-owned and saddled with bad loans worth 22.5% of its GDP.
Mr Jazbec's comments are likely to fuel speculation over whether Slovenia will be bailed out by the EU.
Still hope
Mr Jazbec said he would consider asking for aid if yields on Slovenia's bonds remained high.
During a news conference, he said the country was doing everything it could to bring its funding costs down.
"If that is not successful, then there is a possibility to ask for help within various programmes," he added.
Meanwhile, Slovenia's Prime Minister, Alenka Bratusek, has admitted to parliament the amount needed to rescue the banks is "completely unknown".
But Ms Bratusek told STA, the state-owned news agency: "We are very intensely preparing measures that are needed, so as to avoid asking for help."
The results of the bank's stress-tests, out at the end of November, will indicate whether or not a bailout is needed.
Eurozone members can ask for help from the European Stability Mechanism, set up in 2012.
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EUR/USD slips as faint hopes for budget impasse end emerge
The euro inched lower against the dollar in mid-session U.S. trading on Tuesday as hopes began to sprout that lawmakers will end a budget impasse that closed the government and threatened to derail efforts to lift the country's debt ceiling and avoid default.
In U.S. trading on Tuesday, EUR/USD was down 0.01% at 1.3580, up from a session low of 1.3558 and off from a high of 1.3607.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.3543, Monday's low, and resistance at 1.3607, the earlier high.
A government shutdown dragged on Tuesday though hopes began to build that parties from both sides may be willing to return to the negotiating table to find a way to fund the government as well as lift the debt ceiling and avoid default.
The U.S. Treasury Department has estimated will that it will hit its borrowing limit by Oct. 17, after which the risk of default rises.
Still, the dollar's recovery was weak, as both sides said the other must move first.
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said earlier that the Republican-controlled House should vote to end the shutdown and halt demands to amend President Barack Obama's 2010 healthcare reform bill.
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ECB's Weidmann sees no need now for new LTRO, other measures
The head of Germany's Bundesbank sees no need at present for the European Central Bank to make fresh long-term loans to banks and it will not deploy them simply because market interest rates have risen, he said in an interview with Reuters.
Jens Weidmann is widely seen as the most hawkish policymaker on the ECB's 23-man Governing Council.
Market rates moved higher over the summer on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve would start unwinding its stimulus and the ECB is watching them closely, concerned that a sustained rise could threaten the euro zone's fragile economic recovery.
The rise subsided after the Fed delayed a reduction in its bond purchases, but the early repayment of two previous long-term loans to banks, or LTROs, extended by the ECB in late 2011 and early 2012 is sucking "excess liquidity" out of the system and risks pushing up market rates.
"One cannot infer an automatic monetary policy reaction from a change in money market rates," Weidmann told Reuters in an interview conducted on Monday and published on Wednesday. "There is no such automatism."
"LTROs are only one of many possible instruments," he added.
"Which instrument we, if necessary, deploy, we will then have to discuss. But at the moment I see no need.
"We are always ready, if it is necessary, to act."
ECB experts are analyzing the option of issuing LTROs.
The central bank deployed these cheap loans to inject over 1 trillion euros ($1.36 trillion) into the system soon after Mario Draghi took over as ECB president in November 2011 - a policy measure he has said "avoided a major, major credit crunch".
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