Eur/usd - page 431
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
EU Market Insight: ECB Has Nothing to Show in Germany and France
According to preliminary figures, the inflation rate in Germany showed negative growth in April. However, projections ahead of the final data release due on Friday are even more disappointing, as they suggest even worse results. Inflation growth is expected to show a full 0.5% drop on a monthly basis, while declining 0.3% annually. "The inflation rate in Germany as measured by the consumer price index is expected to be – 0.1% in April 2016. Based on the results available so far, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) also reports that consumer prices are expected to decline by 0.4% on March 2016," the Wiesbaden-based office said in a correction note.
"The harmonized index of consumer prices for Germany, which is calculated for European purposes, is expected to be down 0.3% in April 2016 year on year. Compared with March 2016, it is expected to decline by 0.5%," Destatis added in the release.
Such figures add to the uneasy state of affairs between the European Central Bank (ECB) and Germany. The ECB is pouring more money into the euro zone economy in order to spur inflation in the region, meanwhile Germany is simmering with discontent over ECB policies.
It also shows challenges that ECB President Mario Draghi and the organization's Governing Council are facing. How can they hope for better results in the currency region if in Germany, where jobless numbers have been constantly dropping and the unemployment rate sits at a record low, the inflation rate stubbornly refuses to move higher? Due to such impressive labor market figures and high wages, price pressures are not as weak as in other countries in the euro area.
read more
EUR/USD Weekly Outlook: Lack of Macro Data to Support Euro
There are relatively few macro figures from the euro zone throughout the week, while some higher-impact releases are scheduled in the US at the end of the week, which could deliver some momentum to trading.
Monday will see only German factory orders for March, which should improve month-on-month, but decelerate on the yearly basis.
Tuesday will bring German industrial production for March, which is expected to weaken and German trade balance should swell marginally, but the current account surplus should rise from 20 billion EUR to 24 billion EUR. These data might influence the pair.
On Thursday, the euro zone's industrial production is due and should jump on both the monthly and yearly basis.
Friday will bring German CPI figures for April and these are expected to weaken. Moreover, HICP indices will be released as well, and the country will publish its GDP for the first quarter.
Later in the day, the euro zone's GDP for the first quarter is forecast to stay at 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and the yearly print should stay at 1.6%.
read more
EUR/USD weekly outlook: May 9 - 13
The euro ended the day little changed against the dollar on Friday despite a weaker than expected U.S. jobs report after a Federal Reserve official indicated that U.S. interest rates could still rise twice this year.
EUR/USD settled at 1.1404 late Friday, well below the eight-month highs of 1.1616 set on Tuesday. For the week, the pair was down 0.51%.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, ticked up 0.11% to 93.83 late Friday.
The index ended the week with gains of 0.89% after recovering from a trough of 91.91 hit on Tuesday, its lowest since January 2015.
New York Fed President William Dudley said Friday that it was reasonable to expect two rate hikes this year despite data showing that jobs growth increased at the slowest rate in seven months in April.
The Labor Department reported earlier in the day that the U.S. economy added 160,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since September and well below jobs growth of 202,000 expected by economists.
The unemployment rate remained steady at 5%.
The one bright sport of the report showed that average hourly earnings rose by eight cents or 0.3%, bringing the year-on-year increase to 2.5% from 2.3% in March.
The weak jobs data added to signs that the economy is losing momentum after the Commerce Department reported last week that U.S. economy grew at the slowest pace in two years in the first quarter.
The report saw investors all but abandon expectations for a June rate hike, with most investors now seeing the next U.S. rate hike coming in September.
read more
On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD initially rallied but found enough selling pressure at 1.1460 to turn around and close near the low of the day, however managed to close within the previous day range, being slightly on the bearish side of neutral.
The pair closed for the second consecutive time below the 10-day moving average that is acting as a dynamic resistance although is still trading above the 50 and the 200-day moving averages that act as a dynamic support.
The key levels to watch are: Year high at 1.1616, a daily resistance at 1.1556, other daily resistance at 1.1459, the previous swing high at 1.1398 (support) and the 50-day moving average at 1.1306 (support).
EUR/USD started the new week hovering around 1.14 as there are not enough incentives to push the pair into clear direction. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.14450 and 1.1470 levels. The support is located at 1.14 and if we witness a break, the pair might drop to 1.1340.
Resistance: 1.1492; 1.1540.
Germany trade balance +EUR 26.0bln vs +EUR 20.6bln exp
German trade data for March just released 10 May 2016
* +€20.2bln prev revised down from +€20.3bn
* current account balance +€30.4bln vs +€25.0bln exp vs +€21.1bln prev revised up from +€20.0bln
* exports SA mm +1.9% vs 0.0% exp vs +1.35 prev
* imports SA mm -2.3% vs -0.3% exp vs +0.1% prev revised down from +0.4%
A welcome rise in exports but softer imports suggest reduced domestic demand and that's not so good.