Week forecast for USD/JPY - page 4
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Weekly forecast for USD/JPY
October 29, 2007 - November 02, 2007
View on USD/JPY: consolidation.
GFSignals team provides a week forecast for USD/JPY
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The pair shows some consolidation at the 114-shape area. After touching 113.20 level on Monday USD/JPY currency pair recovered a little until the broken out September triangle – a little bit lower than the 115-shape. And now the pair is ready again for the next decline which may lead towards the August low at 111.60.
Last week our second script was fulfilled (30%): Correction fluctuations in the range of 114.00-116.00, though there was a short term break-out down from the range on Monday. But then the course recovered rapidly and was almost back to the 115-shape again. Thus the pair has classically tested the bottom triangle lines from below and now is ready for the next decline. So in the very close future we expect a downward trend towards the August low at 111.60 and probably lower to the 110-shape area. But first a breakout of the local September-October lows at 112.50-113.20 is necessary for that.
Script 1 (40%): A decline towards 111.50-112.50 area (the target is 110.00).
This script is possible after a breakout of the local September-October lows at 112.50-113.20. And it is quite possible a deeper decline.
Script 2 (30%): Correction fluctuations within the 113.20-115.00 range.
It is also very possible to expect correction fluctuations within the 113.20-115.00 range this week. This script development is possible just like the next course rising.
Script 3 (30%): A rising up to 117.00-119.00 area.
If the pair does not go down we will expect it up. After the next rising upper the triangle lines we expect a movement towards the 118.00 area (October high). Then further rise as well as a new rebound down are both possible.
Resistances
115.00 - the triangle lines.
117.90 - October high.
119.90 - August high.
124.10 - June year 2007 high.
Supports
113.20 - October local support.
112.60 - September low.
111.60 - August year 2007 low.
109.00 - May year 2006 low.
See the charts and read more Forex news and forecasts at our Forex blog.
USD/JPY weekly outlook: June 8 - 12
The dollar rallied 1% against the yen on Friday, rising to the highest level in 13 years as a robust U.S. employment report for May underlined expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates later this year.
The Labor Department reported that the U.S. economy added 280,000 jobs in May, ahead of economists forecast for 220,000. The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.5% from 5.4 in the previous month.
April’s payrolls report was revised to show that 221,000 jobs were created.
Hourly earnings increased 0.3% in May, after a 0.2% increase in April.
The upbeat data, particularly the pick-up in wage growth added to the view that the economy is regaining momentum after a weak first quarter. The report also bolstered expectations that the Fed could start to hike interest rates at its September policy meeting.
USD/JPY hit highs of 125.85, the most since June 2002 and was at 125.58 in late trade, 0.99% higher for the day. The pair ended the week with gains of 1.08%.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.93% to 96.38 late Friday.
Comments by Japanese officials during the week indicated that Tokyo is comfortable with the weaker yen.
Speaking Tuesday Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said it was important for currency rates to reflect economic fundamentals, but gave no sign that Tokyo close to undertaking any measures to stem the steep decline in the yen.
Elsewhere, the euro eased lower against the yen on Friday but still ended the week near five month highs.
EUR/JPY dipped 0.1% to 139.62 in late trade, off Thursday’s five month peaks of 141.04.
The euro was boosted by a rally in bund yields after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Thursday that investors should get used to higher debt market volatility.
In the week ahead, investors will be focusing on revised data on first quarter growth from Japan and the euro zone, while reports on euro zone industrial production will also be closely watched.
In the U.S., Thursdays retail sales report and Fridays report on consumer sentiment will be scrutinized for signs that the world’s largest economy is gaining momentum in the current quarter.
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