Eur/usd - page 415
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EUR/USD: Unsettled Price Action EUR/USD: Unsettled price action in EUR/USD continues within broader consolidation zone. The pair tested support near 1.1150, the 38.2% retracement from lows formed earlier this month and is now approaching towards a descending trend at 1.1330/80 which also happens to be February highs.
With daily RSI closing in on a similar trend, 1.1330/80 will be an immediate resistance while graphical levels at 1.1460 will be an important hurdle near term.
EUR/USD continued the bullish momentum yesterday and made a high at 1.1364. The outlook remains bullish especially if we see a clear break above 1.1375, to test 1.1450-1.1500 area. Immediate support is seen at 1.1280.
Yesterday EURUSD rallied but this time with a narrow range and closed in the middle of the daily range, however managed to close above the previous day high, suggesting bullish momentum.
The pair is trading above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.
The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1456, the 2016 high at 1.1376 (resistance), the previous swing high at 1.1342 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, the 10-day moving average at 1.1230 (support) and the 50 day moving average at 1.1130.
Euro Tests February Highs After Inflation Boost According to the latest Eurostat release, the CPI estimate for March ticked higher by a notch from -0.2% to -0.1% year-on-year, while the core gauge improved to 1.0% from the 0.8% booked in February.
The latest inflation numbers are unlikely to change the stance of the European Central Bank and monetary policy should remain well accommodative, but some short-term relief rally for the euro might be observed.
The euro remained bid after the figures and was trading near daily highs, with the EUR/USD pair testing February tops around $1.1360/70. If these are broken, further advancement toward $1.15 is likely in the near-term.
Earlier in the day, German retail sales for February dropped to -0.4% month-on-month from 0.7% booked in January. The year-on-year change improved notably from -1.2% to 5.4%.
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The EUR/USD made a high today at 1.1411, exactly where resistance is. The pair is now trading around 1.1380. If 1.1410 is not taken out by tomorrow there is a chance that bears might be able to bring the Euro down and go below 1.13.
EUR/USD: Pair Meanders Just Below $1.14, Buck Under Pressure The euro spiked to a five-month high against the greenback on Thursday, as the buck continued to stumble from Tuesday's blow when Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Janet Yellen made her dovish speech.
Traders responded to rising core inflation in the European Union and to positively surprising CPI numbers from Germany, while solid US data had only a limited impact on Thursday.
Looking ahead, the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report on Friday might bring increased volatility. Traders are also awaiting hourly earnings, an indicator of inflation trends. The US labor market has been unveiling strong data for a prolonged period of time, so Fed members devoted more comments to struggling inflation standing behind the slower monetary-tightening pace.
On Thursday, the EUR/USD rose around 0.50% to trade some 10 pips below $1.1400, the highest since October, challenging the major resistance that managed to hold the single currency in the last twelve months, despite several bullish attempts.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index dropped to a fresh five-month low at 94.30 points, heading for the biggest quarterly loss in five years.
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EUR/USD: Forecast For 1.14 On Target, Aiming For 1.16 In Q2 Today, as EURUSD has broken its year-high of 1.1375 and reached BNPP's end-Q1 forecast, BNPP views that the pair can continue to move higher and target a rise to 1.16 over the coming quarter, advising that a better opportunity may present itself over the weeks ahead for establishing long EUR/USD positions.
BNPP identified several key themes to focus on for EURUSD in Q2:
"1) Fed dovishness likely to undermine the USD further. The revision to our EURUSD forecasts earlier in the year was a reflection of significant changes in economists’ outlook for US Fed rate hikes, with the call for three rate rises this year being trimmed to none. Current forecasts expect that the Fed will not be able to raise rates before 2018.
2) A downturn in risk-appetite would bolster EURUSD. We view that EURUSD’s relationship with risk appetite will remain important over the coming quarter. We recently highlighted in EZ BoP: Repatriation amid riskoff that the appetite of eurozone investors moderates during periods of riskoff, leaving the EUR supported by its current account surplus. This means that any reduction in risk appetite would be supportive for the EUR.
3) CLEER projections are bearish for EURUSD at year-end, but scenario analysis suggest EURUSD could rise in Q2. BNP Paribas CLEER, our medium-term macro-based forecasting model, indicates that the fair value for EURUSD is substantially lower than current spot, at around 1.03, and projects EURUSD at this level at year-end. However, scenario analysis using the model highlights the potential upside pressure on EURUSD in Q2 based on our outlook for current account balances to be a more important driver for G10 FX.
4) Technical picture for EURUSD is bullish. We also see scope for further upside in EURUSD from a technical perspective. The break through the 2016 high opens way for the pair to continue to rise within the bullish channel established in early December. The top of this corridor is currently 1.1530 while measured moves target 1.1658-64," BNPP argues.
The euro recorded fourth consecutive successful session against the dollar on Thursday. The single currency continued the positive momentum that started earlier in the week and as a result broke the resistance at 1.1376. If bulls continue to prevail, the pair might break the key level at 1.1439.
Yesterday EURUSD rallied again but this time with a wide range and closed near the high of the day, in addition managed to close above the previous day high, suggesting a strong bullish momentum.
The pair is trading above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic supports.
Today is a BIG day, non-farm payrolls day which will bring a lot of volatility to the market however we might see a strong pullback due to the strong rally from these past few days.
The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1555, other daily resistance at 1.1456, the previous swing high at 1.1342 (support), the 10-day moving average at 1.1248 (support), and daily support at 1.1237.
EURUSD trying the 1.1400 break again The euro's back above the 1.1400 mark but yesterday's high is still holding I'm not surprised to see the euro having another crack today. The buying warriors fought a hard battle yesterday and although they were pushed back eventually, they made camp not too far south and regrouped for today's fight.
For me, reading the price action can be fun and is always a good exercise. Although 1.1400 was lost, traders stayed in the game and had the support in place so that the price didn't move too far away.
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