Eur/usd - page 411
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On the last Friday’s session the EURUSD fell but with a narrow range and closed near the low of the day, however closed within the previous day range, suggesting a weak bearish momentum.
The pair continues to trade above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic support.
Today we may see another correction day with a potential test of the 1.1237 daily support or even down to 1.1218 previous swing high.
The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1556, other daily resistance at 1.1459, the year high at 1.1376 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, the 10-day moving average at 1.1150 (support) and a daily support at 1.1097.
The EUR/USD is trading lower in todays session. The pair is currently at 1.1260. Price continues to be range bound as traders and investors wait for news to stir the market. First support remains 1.1070, first resistance 1.1410.
What to do with EUR/USD
1.15 possible but value is better to sell
The single currency has been capped since Friday's comments by ECB chief economist and Executive Board member Praet. He stressed that the central bank still has room to cut interest rates should the euro area's economic recovery falter. Nevertheless, it must be noted too, that Praet did not contradict Draghi. Even if Draghi indicated, that more cuts are unlikely, such a view was based on the assumption that the growth and price outlook improves. Since the ECB eased monetary policy by more than expected, inflation expectations as measured by 5y inflation swaps failed to improve.
It appears that the single currency's recent appreciation has been preventing price expectations from rising. Even if the ECB wishes to be less driven by markets, it remains to be seen how central bank members will react should inflation expectations fall back close to historic lows.
As a result to the above outlined conditions we remain of the view that EUR upside is limited from the current levels. While we do not exclude that the EUR will reach levels closer to 1.13-1.15, we believe that rallies should be sold.
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The single currency recorded a second loss against the US dollar on Monday. The pair opened at a price of 1.1269 and after a volatile session, the euro lost 30 pips. The pair remains at risk of further decline, as next target are appearing levels at 1.1100. A breakthrough of 1.1286 might change the direction.
Yesterday EURUSD fell again but this time with a narrow range and closed near the low of the day, in addition managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting a strong bearish momentum.
However the pair continues to trade above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic support.
Today we may see a bounce off the 10-day moving average at 1.1201 after the two day correction that started on last Friday.
The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1556, other daily resistance at 1.1459, the year high at 1.1376 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, the 10-day moving average at 1.1201 (support) and a daily support at 1.1097.
Brussels Attacks Drive Market Sentiment in Europe Although it seems that the European common currency has ceased further declines for now, it remains in negative territory, pressured by increased risk aversion on the back of terrorist attacks in Brussels.
German economic surveys came mixed for the month of March. The German Ifo business survey improved to 106.7 from 105.7, beating expectations of 106.0, while the ZEW survey showed less improvement than initially expected, rising to just 4.3 versus the expected reading of 5.4.
The shared European currency emerged from its daily lows below the $1.12 handle but still traded 0.32% lower at $1.1205.
The euro started to deteriorate after a number of explosions in Brussels at the airport and on the metro system, with some media informing of multiple deaths and injuries.
Moreover, PMI numbers were released in France and Germany, the two biggest euro zone economies. The French services PMI grew from 49.2 to 51.2, moving from contraction to expansion, but the manufacturing numbers went the other direction, dropping from 50.2 to 49.6.
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The EUR/USD reached 1.1188 due to the blasts at Brussels airport and metro. The euro is still feeling the impact of the event as Europe is trying to stand strong and continue normal everyday life. My prayers and support is with the people of Belgium.
The dollar continues its positive performance since the end of last week. Despite the statements of three presidents of the Fed, in April and June is still possible interest rates rise, the market did not react strongly. The US currency found good support and managed to advance against the euro. The single currency was trading at levels of 1.1230, which was a decrease of 0.28%.
EUR / USD was indecisive yesterday. The outlook remains neutral in nearest term but we have potential false breakout scenario as seen on hourly chart, especially if price able to make a clear break and daily close below 1.1200, re-testing 1.1065.
Yesterday EURUSD fell again but this time with a wide range and closed in the middle of the daily range, however managed to close below the previous day low, suggesting a bearish momentum.
The pair still managed to close above the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic support.
A close below the 10-day moving average may suggest a deep correction down to 1.1097.
The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1556, other daily resistance at 1.1459, the year high at 1.1376 (resistance), a daily support at 1.1237, the 10-day moving average at 1.1205 (support) and a daily support at 1.1097.