Eur/usd - page 402

 

The EUR/USD is trading lower in today's trading session due to technical and fundamentals combined. Technically speaking, price is trading below the 200SMA for a fifth consecutive day. Also, price is now outside the long-term bullish channel, which makes it vulnerable to bear attack.

First level of support 1.08, first level of resistance 1.0970.

 

EUR/USD drop is halted around 1.0850, In my opinion the area between 1.0850 until 1.0820 is a rebound area the pair might trade sideways around this area for sometimes before taking a decision.

 

The EUR/USD will test the 1.0800 level sooner not later specially if the US Nonfarm Payrolls came as expected. The EUR/USD will break through the 1.0800.

 

EUR/USD prolongs its decline upon ISM factories boost.

 

The single currency recorded humble decline for a third consecutive session on Tuesday. The pair lost only 6 pips at a closing price of 1.0866. The graphics continue to develop under moving averages, while the index of relative strength remained on neutral territory. If the downward trend continues, we may expect a breakthrough of the support at 1.0810.

 

The EUR/USD is trading in the long-term downward channel, which makes it vulnerable to bear attacks. First level of support 1.08, first level of resistance 1.0960. Only a break and a close above the 200SMA would invalidate the depreciation of the Euro.

 

January 2016 Eurozone PPI -1.0% vs -0.7% exp m/m Details of the January 2016 Eurozone PPI data report 2 March 2016

  • Prior -0.8%
  • -2.9% vs -2.9% exp y/y. Prior -3.0%
  • EU 28 states -1.0% vs -0.8% prior m/m
  • -2.9% vs -3.2% prior y/y

Sharper loss on the month but not as bad y/y. Energy was -3.2% vs -2.7% prior m/m & -8.6% vs -8.9% prior y/y. Because of the lag between energy prices and inflation we probably have yet to see the feed through from the drop in oil prices, from the consolidation period around Aug through Oct, coming into headline inflation numbers. They appear in PPI a little quicker.

 

Yesterday the EURUSD initially fell but found enough buying pressure to turn around and closed near the high of the day, however closed within the previous day range, suggesting a weak bullish momentum.

The pair is trading below the 10, 50 and the 200-day moving averages that are acting as dynamic resistances.

The key levels to watch are: A daily resistance at 1.1097, the 200-day moving average at 1.1020 (resistance), 50-day moving average at 1.0984 (resistance), the 10-day moving average at 1.0965 (resistance), a daily resistance at 1.0900 and a daily support at 1.0819.

 

EUR/USd starting trading in a tight range around the support level, I dont think there will be much movement until the NFP on friday.

 

Neutral action for the 2nd day and the EUR/USD moving in the side way, Is it the silent before the storm? I will wait the NFP as well.

Reason: