Eur/usd - page 205
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EUR/USD holds steady near 2-year lows, Greece in focus
The euro held steady against the U.S. dollar on Monday, hovering close to two-year lows as concerns over political instability in Greece persisted and as demand for the greenback remained broadly supported.
Trading volumes were expected to remain light this week ahead of the New Year's holiday.
EUR/USD hit 1.2167 during late Asian trade, the pair's lowest since August 2012; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2190.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2132 and resistance at 1.2255, the high of December 25.
Markets were jittery as Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras was set to make a third and final attempt on Monday to get his candidate for president confirmed and avoid an early parliamentary election.
The prime minister received the backing of 168 lawmakers in the second vote on December 23, eight more than in the first presidential ballot on December 17.
After losing the first round, Samaras had asked lawmakers not to disrupt negotiations with creditors and offered to hold a parliamentary election at the end of next year.
Meanwhile, the dollar remained broadly supported after final data last week showed that U.S. gross domestic product rose 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of 4.3% and up from 3.9% in the three months to June.
The strong data fuelled further optimism over the strength of the U.S. economic recovery and added to expectations for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next year.
The euro was also steady against the pound, with EUR/GBP dipping 0.06% to 0.7825.
source
Euro off lows but capped by wariness over Greek vote
The euro inched away from more than two-year lows but remained on tenterhooks as investors awaited a key vote in Greece later in the session, while the dollar treaded water in its final week of a strong 2014.
Activity is likely to be thin this week ahead of the New Year's holiday and as many investors have already closed out their positions for the year. Japanese markets will be shut from Dec. 31-Jan. 2 and reopen on Jan. 5.
Later on Monday, Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras faces a vote in parliament that will decide whether the country goes to snap elections that could bring the leftwing Syriza party to power and derail an international bailout.
Voting is due to start at midday (1000 GMT), with the result likely around an hour later.
"The possibility of a worrying outcome in Greece is a potentially risk-off factor, as is the possibility of an Ebola case in Japan," said Ayako Sera, senior market economist at Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Bank.
A man in his thirties who returned from Sierra Leone on Dec. 23 was suspected on contracting the disease, the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare said. Test results are expected by Tuesday morning. If confirmed, it would be the first case of the Ebola virus in Asia.
"Until there is confirmation, the Ebola case possibility is another factor weighing on risk in a very thin market," Sera said.
The dollar edged lower on the day against the euro, which added about 0.1 percent to $1.2190. The euro earlier fell as low as $1.2168, just a few ticks above last week's 28-month low of $1.2165 and on track for a yearly loss of more than 11 percent.
Jens Weidmann, a member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council and the president of Germany's Bundesbank, told a newspaper on Sunday that growth in Germany - Europe's biggest economy - might be better than expected next year, and that the situation in Europe is not as bad as many people think.
Weidmann is the most vocal opponent of quantitative easing, which some economists believe is the ECB's last resort to revive the euro zone economy.
While investors are betting the euro will fall against the dollar next year on speculation grows that the European Central Bank will ease monetary policy more aggressively, it may not depreciate at all against currencies of other major trading partners.
The final U.S. data reports of the year will also be in focus this week, including U.S. home prices on Tuesday and weekly jobless claims on Wednesday.
On Tuesday, the Conference Board will release its index on U.S. consumer confidence, which fell to 88.7 in November but was expected to show improvement.
"The index probably rebounded to close to the recovery-to-date high of 94.1 reached in October," said Jim O'Sullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics in Valhalla, New York.
Solid data is likely to reinforce the view that the U.S. economy is improving enough for the Federal Reserve to consider ending its near-zero interest-rate policy in mid-2015, in contrast to the still-sluggish economies of the euro zone and Japan where central bankers are likely to continue monetary easing.
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Italy's Consumer Confidence Falls To 10-Month Low
Italy's consumer confidence declined to its lowest level in ten months in December, survey data from the statistical office Istat showed Monday.
The consumer confidence index fell to 99.7 in December from 100.2 in November. This was the lowest score since last February.
The current climate index slid to 97.2 from 99 in November, while the outlook index rose slightly to 101.8 from 101.7 in the prior month.
The economic situation index slid to 103.2 from 103.9 in the prior month and the personal finance index declined to 98 from 99.1.
The balance on inflation perceptions referring to the last 12 months rose to -8 from -5 and that for future came in at -18 versus -19 in November.
source
EUR / USD moved slightly lower on Friday, but the decline was interrupted by the support barrier marked by the minimum of last Tuesday.
The RSI moved in after finding high above the support line 30, while the MACD, although negative remains above its signal line.
The price action suggests a downward long-term trend.
There are lower maximum and minimum and below the moving averages 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.22689
R2 - 1.22469
R1 - 1.22121
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.21901
S1 - 1.21553
S2 - 1.21333
S3 - 1.20985
the market is completely asleep
No happy new year for EUR/USD: falls to new lows
EUR/USD is trading at a new low closer to New Year’s Day: 1.2153 is the new level as the pair continues to slip.
The latest event is Greece going to the polls, but it’s also part of the ongoing trend, which is certainly a friend of the dollar, but no friend for the euro.
Some background
EUR/USD has been falling quite constantly since it almost touched 1.40 in early May. Draghi then said that action from the ECB was coming in June. Indeed, the ECB then cut the interest rates, including a historic negative deposit rate and announced additional easing steps.
A similar move followed in September, with rates reaching 0.05% for the main lending rate and -0.20% for the negative deposit rate. Despite rates reaching their lower bound and a weaker euro, inflation remained low.
Low inflation was exacerbated by a falling oil prices and a slowdown in Europe, with the tensions in Russia partly to blame.
Debt crisis returning?
The third and final vote in Greece’s presidential elections ended in a failure for the government. This implies elections in the debt struck country as it faces tough negotiations with the troika over the bailout program.
And the anti-bailout / anti-austerity SYRIZA party is set to win the elections. This uncertainty sent the Athens stock market plunging, and also weighs on the euro.
EUR/USD Levels
As the words come out of the keyboard, the pair extends its falls below the 1.2150 line, which support back in 2012. If this break is confirmed, the next level of support is the critical one: the July 2012 low of 1.2042. This is the low point where Draghi offered his “whatever it takes” speech.
The obvious level below is 1.20, which is a very round number, last seen in 2010. 1.1876 was the low at that time, May 2010. Even lower, we have the launch level of the pair: 1.17.
On the top side, 1.2250 works as resistance.
Spanish CPI plunges 1.1% in December – outright deflation in the euro-zone?
Prices have fallen by over 1% year over year in Spain: 1.1% to be precise, lower than 0.7% expected. The country was already experiencing deflation, with -0.5%, and the impact of the oil prices makes it look worse in the initial report for December.
With euro-zone inflation standing at 0.3% in November, it could certainly fall below 0%. If in Spain, oil prices knocked off 0.6% from annual CPI and this happens for the whole euro-zone, we have -0.3%.
Spain was expected to report an annual drop of 0.7% in consumer prices for December in the initial read. In November, CPI printed -0.4%. Spain is experiencing outright deflation, even though the economy is growing nicely.
EUR/USD traded just under 1.2150 before the publication, still suffering the news about elections in Greece that are due in about a month.
Spain is the euro-zone’s fourth largest economy, but the importance of this release does not come from the size but rather from the timing and oil: due to the holidays, Spain releases its inflation data earlier than others. In addition, the falling price of oil could be reflected in this report, giving an indication of how low euro-zone inflation could fall to and how fast the ECB could act on QE: will they move on January 22nd?
Later we have some ECB data and then some figures from the US just before the year draws to an end.
source
Eurozone November M3 Growth Exceeds Forecast
Eurozone M3 money supply grew at a faster-than-expected pace in November, data from the European Central Bank revealed Tuesday.
The annual growth in M3 money supply climbed to 3.1 percent from 2.5 percent in October. Economists had expected a modest increase in the rate to 2.6 percent.
The three-month average growth in M3 accelerated to 2.7 percent from 2.3 percent. That also exceeded economists' prediction for 2.5 percent increase.
Lending to the private sector continued to decline, down 0.9 percent annually in November following 1.1 percent slump in the previous month.
Meanwhile, deposits placed by households grew 2.4 percent year-on-year after a 2.1 percent rise in October.
I think market news which can have a great impact on the pair of EUR/USD are FOMC, Jobs data from US, US GDP, ECB, Press conference from Mr. Mario draghi, apart from these events there are lot of other things which can have a great impact on the pair but in recent times its USD which is enjoying a strong run against major currencies.
Happy new year