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Euro Rises From Two-Year Low on Saudi Oil Comments
The euro strengthened versus the dollar amid speculation a recent drop that pushed it to a two-year low was overdone after Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali Al-Naimi said the oil market will recover.
A gauge of the greenback declined for the first time in four days, slipping from near the highest level in more than five years. The ruble advanced for a second day as Chinese ministers offered support to Russia with talk of expanding a currency swap between the two nations. The Australian dollar strengthened as Asian stock gains increased demand for higher-yielding assets.
“Something that could be an issue over the next few days is what the Saudis said,” said Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon Corp in London. The oil price could lead to “a higher euro. The ruble is the wild card, you don’t know how that’s going to play out over the next few weeks and you don’t know exactly how much oil prices could fall,” he said.
The euro rose 0.3 percent to $1.2260 as of 8:24 a.m. New York time after sliding to $1.2220, matching the weakest level since August 2012. The 18-member currency advanced 0.6 percent to 147.07 yen. The dollar gained 0.4 percent to 119.96 yen.
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EUR/USD holds moderate gains after E.Z., U.S. data
The euro remained moderately higher against the U.S. dollar on Monday, holding just above a two-year trough after the release of better-than-expected euro zone consumer confidence data and a disappointing home sales report from the U.S.
EUR/USD hit 1.2272 during U.S. morning trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2252, adding 0.20%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2132 and resistance at 1.2353, the high of December 18.
In a report, Eurostat said its index of consumer confidence for the euro zone improved to minus 10.9 this month from minus 11.5 in November, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated minus 11.6.
Analysts had expected the index to improve to minus 11.0 in December.
Earlier Monday, official data showed that German import prices dropped 0.8% in November, compared to expectations for a 0.5% loss, after a 0.3% downtick in October.
In the U.S., industry data showed that existing home sales dropped by 6.1% in November to 4.93 million units from a revised total of 5.25 million the previous month.
Analysts had expected existing home sales to slip 0.9% last month to 5.19 million units.
Meanwhile, the dollar continued to be underpinned after the Fed signaled last week that it was on track to raise interest rates next year but said it was taking a patient stance.
The central bank also acknowledged the improvement in the U.S. labor market and noted that the economy is making progress toward its goals in inflation and employment.
The euro was also higher against the pound, with EUR/GBP gaining 0.38% to 0.7854.
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thank you for the news
EUR/USD fell on Friday below the support line turned resistance of 1.2250.
The RSI met with resistance at its 30 line, while the MACD, already below its signal line moved into negative territory.
The momentum signals open the way for more decreases in the medium term, reinforced by the observation of lower maximum and lower minimum, below the moving averages 50 and 200 days.
R3 - 1.23603
R2 - 1.23310
R1 - 1.22784
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.22491
S1 - 1.21965
S2 - 1.21672
S3 - 1.21146
EUR/USD almost unchanged near 2-year lows
The euro was almost unchanged against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, hovering close to a two-year low as demand for the greenback remained broadly supported in pre-Christmas trade.
Trading volumes were expected to remain light this week with many investors away for the Christmas holiday and ahead of the New Year's holiday.
EUR/USD hit 1.2221 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2236.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2132 and resistance at 1.2305 the high of December 19.
The dollar remained broadly supported after the Federal Reserve signaled last week that it was on track to raise interest rates next year but said it was taking a patient stance.
The central bank also acknowledged the improvement in the U.S. labor market and noted that the economy is making progress toward its goals in inflation and employment.
The greenback showed little reaction to industry data released on Monday showing that U.S. existing home sales dropped by 6.1% in November to 4.93 million units from a revised total of 5.25 million the previous month.
In the euro zone, Eurostat reported on Monday that its index of consumer confidence for the single currency bloc improved to minus 10.9 this month from minus 11.5 in November, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated minus 11.6.
Analysts had expected the index to improve to minus 11.0 in December.
The euro was also steady against the pound, with EUR/GBP at 0.7849.
Later in the day, France was to publish report on consumer spending. The U.S. was to release final third-quarter GDP data, as well as on core durable goods orders and new home sales.
source
EUR/USD drops to fresh 2-year lows on strong U.S. data
The euro dropped to fresh two-year lows against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, as data showed that U.S. consumer sentiment deteriorated less-than-expected in December and that the U.S. economy grew at a faster rate than anticipated in the third quarter.
Trading volumes were expected to remain light this week with many investors away for the Christmas holiday and ahead of the New Year's holiday.
EUR/USD 1.2165 during U.S. morning trade, the pair's lowest since August 2012; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2175, sliding 0.44%.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.2132 and resistance at 1.2305, the high of December 19.
In a revised report, the University of Michigan said its consumer sentiment index ticked down to 93.6 this month from a reading of 93.8 in November. Analysts expected the index to fall to 93.1 in December.
The University of Michigan also said its inflation expectations for the next 12 months slipped to 2.8% in December from 2.9% the previous month.
Separately, the U.S. Census Bureau said new home sales fell 1.6% last month to 438,000 units from a revised total of 445,000 units in October. Analysts had expected new home sales to hit 460,000 in November.
Data also showed that U.S. personal spending rose 0.6% in November, exceeding expectations for a 0.5% gain. U.S. personal spending rose 0.3% in October, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 0.2% uptick.
The reports came after final data showed that U.S. gross domestic product rose 5.0% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a growth rate of 4.3% and up from 3.9% in the three months to June.
Another report showed that U.S. durable goods orders slipped 0.7% last month, confounding expectations for a 3.0% increase, after a 0.3% rise in October.
Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation items, fell 0.4% in November after a 1.0% decline in October, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated 1.1% drop. Analysts had expected core durable goods orders to gain 1.1% last month.
In the euro zone, official data on Friday showed that French consumer spending rose 0.4% in November, beating expectations for a 0.3% gain, while a separate report showed that France's economy grew by 0.3% in the third quarter, in line with expectations.
The euro was higher against the pound, with EUR/GBP adding 0.15% to 0.7856.
Also Tuesday, the Office for National Statistics said the U.K. current account deficit widened to £27.0 billion in the third quarter from £24.3 billion in the second quarter, whose figure was revised from a previously estimated deficit of £23.1 billion.
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price is keep pushing lower and lower 1.2150 is on reach before the holiday
EUR / USD has moved slightly upwards on Monday, but found resistance near the area of 1.2250 / 60 (R1) and fell again.
As for short-term momentum, the RSI found support in line 30 and moved track that, the MACD although in negative territory, crossed above the signal line and has moved slightly upwards.
This suggests that we may be facing a small bullish correction before continuing the downward path.
R3 - 1.23042
R2 - 1.22748
R1 - 1.22231
Daily Std. Pivot - 1.21937
S1 - 1.21420
S2 - 1.21126
S3 - 1.20609
EUR/USD: Trading the US Unemployment Claims
US Unemployment Claims is released weekly, and measures the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time. It is considered an important measure of the health and direction of the US economy. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bullish for the euro. The indicator is usually released on Thursdays, but has been advanced this week to Wednesday due to the Christmas holiday.
Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for EUR/USD.
Published on Wednesday at 13:30 GMT.
Indicator Background
Analysts closely monitor employment data, and Unemployment Claims provides them the opportunity to track the US employment picture on a weekly basis. The labor market is highly correlated with economic growth, as an increase in employment will result in greater consumer confidence and an increase in consumer spending.
Unemployment Claims is on a welcome downward trend, as the indicator has now dropped for four straight weeks. Last week, the indicator came in at 289 thousand, well below the estimate of 297 thousand. Little change is expected in the upcoming reading, with the estimate standing at 291 thousand.
Sentiments and levels
The general direction for EUR/USD remains lower as the ECB could be headed for QE in January and Fed chair Yellen broadly hinted that rate hikes are coming in 2015. Europe needs a lower euro to kick-start inflation mandate and boost much needed growth. US citizens received a “tax cut” from oil prices, allowing consumers to spend more. 1.15 in EUR/USD is certainly an option, but perhaps not now. After we’ve seen a fall now, the relatively quiet Christmas market may allow markets to take a break before some fast and furious end-of-year adjustments in thin trading next week. So, the overall sentiment is neutral on EUR/USD towards this release.
Technical levels, from top to bottom: 1.2400, 1.2280, 1.2250, 1.2150 and 1.2042.
5 Scenarios
source
EURUSD Eyes 1.1875 As ECB Mulls Full Scale QE
The Euro (EUR) extended downside movement against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday, for the sixth day in a row hence dragging the price of EURUSD to less than even 1.2200 in a record breaking losing streak since the 2010 slowdown. The pair broke a monster channel support on the daily chart and looks set to break the monthly channel support as well which could pave the way for more correction below the 1.2000 milestone.
Technical Analysis
As of this writing, the pair is being traded around 1.2170. A support can be seen near 1.2164, the intraday low of yesterday ahead of 1.2000, the psychological number and then 1.1875, the low of 2010. A break and daily closing below the 1.1875 support area could incite renewed selling pressure, validating a dip towards the 1.1500 handle and this looks possible amid expected full scale QE in January as well as Fed rate hike optimism.
On the upside, the pair is expected to face a hurdle near 1.2235, the trendline support turned resistance on the daily chart ahead of 1.2568, the high of the last major upside rally. The technical bias will however remain bearish as long as the 1.2568 resistance area is intact.
ECB Vs Fed
The European Central Bank (ECB) is all set to announce the full scale Quantitative Easing (QE) in order to pull the Eurozone economy out of recession. The easing policy would cause further decline in the Euro exchange rate. On the other hand, the recent unexpected improvement in the US growth rate suggests that the Federal Reserve might go for the first rate hike, well before the previous forecasts which would add to the selling pressure in EURUSD.
Trade Idea
Considering the overall technical and fundamental outlook, selling the pair around the 1.2450-12500 handle appears to be a good strategy in short to medium term.