FX FUSE | Key Levels and Market Forecasts - page 2
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Disclaimers & Execution Rules
I've reviewed my trading and updated my old risk/execution disclaimer along with my old execution rules.
I'd also appreciate feedback on this. Please keep in mind that I'm not here to sell trading signals (buy here, stop loss here, take profit here). I just don't believe that is a profitable way for people to trade long term. I'd like to meet talented coders, traders who wish to exchange ideas/seek out talent, and other partnerships in general. Nothing more. I've been at this for a long time and am willing to be an active participant here in advancing trading methodology. More about us later when there's time.
Thanks for any feedback you all put out there.
Entry Execution #1: All trade results shown are based on our lowest bid zone triggered after the first offer zone is triggered (longs), or vice versa from our highest offer zone triggered after the first bid zone is triggered (shorts). Please review the general market forecast to determine our directional bias. This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise.
Entry Execution #2: In the event an outer offer or bid zone mentioned never triggers, and price begins to move in favor of our directional bias, a trade will also be considered triggered short if it drops through the nearest bid on a 15 minute Heikin Ashi Candlestick close, or long if it rises through the offer on a 15 minute Heikin Ashi Candlestick close. In the event this happens, price must then retrace to cover the spread before executing. If it reaches it's next bid or offer zone per our directional bias before this happens, the trade is considered void. Please see the general market forecast to determine our directional bias. This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise.
Stop Loss Execution #1:The outermost bid or offer zone will always be used for the stop. All bid levels are valid stop loss levels (longs), and all offer levels are valid stop loss levels (shorts), and will only be stopped out if there is a 15 minute Heikin Ashi Candlestick close into the said level. This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise.
Stop Loss Execution #2:The outermost level won't be used for the stop anymore in this case, but instead the actual execution level if a 15 minute Hiekin Ashi Candlestick closes back into the execution zone. This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise.
Break Even Execution: Trades go break even at the first offer zone when going long, and trades go break even at the first bid zone when going short. This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise. A break even trade also won't trigger closed unless there is a 15 minute Hiekin Ashi Candlestick close into the original execution level. This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise.
Take Profit Execution:There will be multiple take profit levels on every trade. For example, there will automatically be two take profit levels with two offer zones in place on the chart and in the written analysis during a long suggestion. If the trade went up 50 pips, that profit would be locked in. If it then hit the next offer at zone at another 50 pips, that profit would then also be locked in. The math will work accordingly in other scenarios, with a proper division among the amount of offer or bid levels in any trade suggestions. This is the case unless the trade is announced otherwise. Please see my risk disclaimer for my view on the calculation of pips as a performance measurement.
Execution Flexibility:All take profit and entry levels are allowed 5 pips of flexibility due to discrepancies between platforms, spreads, other market inefficiencies, and our written anaylsis compared to the charting. For example, this means if we have an offer zone on the chart at 1.3035 that is a short suggestion, the trade could still be considered triggered if it hit 1.3030 and then reversed.
Execution Disclaimer:These execution techniques are currently still experimental and are subject to change at a later date.
If some of these rules seem too flexible for your taste, too confusing, or non-applicable to your trading... then please stop using my free, and high quality, trading material.The reason the 5 pip rule is done, from a technical standpoint, has already been explained. Then at times, I'm slightly off on a level in the writing, versus the chart, and vice versa. The primary reason for the execution and take profit flexibility is because I'm busy trading, and my execution methods and levels can vary on the fly as the market progresses. My systems and trading style rarely relies on a set and forget methodology. My trading revolves around flexible trading scripts, order cancels orders, and so forth. It's virtually impossible to mimic my trading through a written forecast released once a day. However, the people I'm looking to assist are not interested unless there is some sort of quantifiable performance. Think "lights, cameras, action." That's exactly the reason this is done the way that it is. It's my opinion that most people get slaughtered (stop hunts, missed fills etc.) playing the market with traditional execution techniques. If you feel you can be profitable long term from manually placing trade signals in your account from a signal provider, then you have something coming to you. The same goes for live trade rooms. You will, however, be profitable long term with a helpful forecasting guide that enables you to make trading decisions on your own. That's my goal here, and that's why I'm putting out this quality material that forces the trader to think for themselves while at the same time showing some sort of performance.
Risk Disclaimer:This risk disclaimer is not considered complete and is subject to change at a later date.
Forex trading involves substantial risk of loss. FX FUSE does not recommend trading beyond 1:10 leverage, trading for a living, or investing with unregulated, non-audited "trading professionals." Any gains advertised in "PIPS" is subject to interpretation since the value of a pip is determined by the trader. For example, if a trader raked in over 100 pips after multiple take profits, the reality is that this could really be a minuscule amount of actual account equity gained. FX FUSE is not responsible for interpreting proper risk allocations for any individual or entity. FX FUSE, or any other related counter parties, is not licensed or intended to give trading advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. FX FUSE covers education, systems, and trading technology on an opinion basis only, nothing more. FX FUSE is not responsible for any losses incurred by individuals or entities using it's services or materials for financial gains.
#FXFUSE
EURUSD Forecast
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.2970 - (Offers) DR1, D9EMA, WPV
1.2925 - (Bids) DPV, 1H9EMA, 4H9EMA
1.2890 - (Bids) MPV, DS1, D50EMA, D200EMMA
1.2820 - (Bids) MM3, WS1, D100EMA, W20EMA
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Above
WPV - Below
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Below
Daily 4H 9EMA - Below
Forecast
Bias: Bearish
Trade: Short
The euro is basing on an intraday basis but our indicators still point to a heavier bias to the downside. On the downside the biggest level in our eyes is the Monthly Pivot around the 1.2890 level. If prices slices all of these, there is an enormous cluster of confluence down at 1.2820 that could act as a magnet, but also a nice potential bounce zone. The most crucial block at this point to the upside is the 1.2970 offer zone, if this gets taken out then our opinions unravel and we'll see how the EUR/USD closes tomorrow after the NY close. This block is important, thus the lack of need to locate other offer levels.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSE
GBPAUD Results
Our original posts on the GBP/AUD short analysis are attached. Here's is an updated picture with the original levels still in place:
1.5356 - (Offers) DMR1, 4H9EMA, D9EMA
1.5335 - (Offers) WPV, DPV, 4H9EMA Triggered
1.5270 - (Bids) WS1, DS1, MM3 Triggered
1.5215 - (Bids) WS2, DS2
Total: -15 pips
Note: Came back to break even and per our rules at the time, we had to take a small loss. With our updated rules, we would have had a partial take profit. Our update rules are below:
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSE
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.5356 - (Offers) DMR1, 4H9EMA, D9EMA
1.5335 - (Offers) WPV, DPV, 4H9EMA
1.5270 - (Bids) WS1, DS1, MM3
1.5215 - (Bids) WS2, DS2
Please read our execution rules.
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Below
WPV - Below
MPV - Below
Daily 9EMA - Below
Daily 4H 9EMA - Below
Forecast
The pound crosses took a hard hit today and based on the information above, combined with a look at the daily charts, we are seeing the odds favoring a continuation to the downside. These opinions will quickly unravel if price breaks the 1.5356 offer barrier.
Please read our risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSEEURUSD Results
Our original posts on the EUR/USD short analysis are attached. Here's is an updated picture with the original levels still in place:
1.2970 - (Offers) DR1, D9EMA, WPV Triggered
1.2925 - (Bids) DPV, 1H9EMA, 4H9EMA
1.2890 - (Bids) MPV, DS1, D50EMA, D200EMMA
1.2820 - (Bids) MM3, WS1, D100EMA, W20EMA
Total: -10 pips
Note: The trade executed at our only offer zone and was then immediately stopped out per our rules. This proved to be a critical level.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSE
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.2970 - (Offers) DR1, D9EMA, WPV
1.2925 - (Bids) DPV, 1H9EMA, 4H9EMA
1.2890 - (Bids) MPV, DS1, D50EMA, D200EMMA
1.2820 - (Bids) MM3, WS1, D100EMA, W20EMA
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Above
WPV - Below
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Below
Daily 4H 9EMA - Below
Forecast
Bias: Bearish
Trade: Short
The euro is basing on an intraday basis but our indicators still point to a heavier bias to the downside. On the downside the biggest level in our eyes is the Monthly Pivot around the 1.2890 level. If prices slices all of these, there is an enormous cluster of confluence down at 1.2820 that could act as a magnet, but also a nice potential bounce zone. The most crucial block at this point to the upside is the 1.2970 offer zone, if this gets taken out then our opinions unravel and we'll see how the EUR/USD closes tomorrow after the NY close. This block is important, thus the lack of need to locate other offer levels.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSEEURUSD Forecast
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.3070 - (Offers) WR1, DR2
1.3035 - (Offers) DR1, WM4, WPV
1.2980 - (Bids) DPV, WPV, D9EMA, 4H9EMA
1.2950 - (Bids) W50EMA, DS1
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Above
WPV - Above
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Above
Daily 4H 9EMA - Above
5/5 Bullish
Forecast
Bias: Long
Trade: Long
We know the 1.2970 offer zone would be huge yesterday, and we saw a sharp reversal in risk appetite across the markets once this happened. This was the reason for extremely tight stop suggestions with only one offer zone. We would like to comment on other markets, such as the E-Minis, which showed good bullish behavior today. We are leaning dollar bearish in general, and although there are many opportunities in the market, it's still technically safe enough to suggest this long suggestion on the EUR/USD.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSE
EURUSD Results
Our original posts on the EUR/USD long analysis are attached. Here's an updated picture with the original levels still in place:
1.3070 - (Offers) WR1, DR2 TRIGGERED
1.3035 - (Offers) DR1, WM4, WPV TRIGGERED
1.2980 - (Bids) DPV, WPV, D9EMA, 4H9EMA
1.2950 - (Bids) W50EMA, DS1
Total: +35 pips
Note: Price never retraced to the bid zones. However, per our execution rules, we are allowed to execute into offer zones in the directional bias of our trades.
Yes, this is an update from December. We became extremely busy and had to take a break from posting. We will continue at a slow pace until further notice.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSE
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.3070 - (Offers) WR1, DR2
1.3035 - (Offers) DR1, WM4, WPV
1.2980 - (Bids) DPV, WPV, D9EMA, 4H9EMA
1.2950 - (Bids) W50EMA, DS1
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Above
WPV - Above
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Above
Daily 4H 9EMA - Above
5/5 Bullish
Forecast
Bias: Long
Trade: Long
We know the 1.2970 offer zone would be huge yesterday, and we saw a sharp reversal in risk appetite across the markets once this happened. This was the reason for extremely tight stop suggestions with only one offer zone. We would like to comment on other markets, such as the E-Minis, which showed good bullish behavior today. We are leaning dollar bearish in general, and although there are many opportunities in the market, it's still technically safe enough to suggest this long suggestion on the EUR/USD.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSEEURUSD Forecast
Confluence
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.3760 - (Offers) WR1, MR1, DR2
1.3880 - (Offers) WR2
1.3970 - (Offers) WM5, MR2
1.3625 - (Bids) DPV, 1H9EMA,
1.3590 - (Bids) WPV, MM4, DS1
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Above
WPV - Above
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Above
Daily 4H 9EMA - Above
5/5 Bullish
Forecast
Bias: Long
Trade: Long
Special note: We are suggesting a market entry order right now at 1.3625.
We believe market sentiment has shifted to the extreme, and although a lot of data points to retail traders pinning the top here, we think it's the market makers who will come out on top. Positioning long the euro, in any cross, should be used with full size. We will add more details on how to size correctly at a later date.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSE
EURAUD Forecast
Confluence
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.3250 - (Offers) WR1, DR2, MR1
1.34 - (Offers) WR2, MM5
1.3530 - (Offers) Mr2, WM6
1.3060 - (Bids) WPV, MS1
1.2930 - (Bids) DS2, WS1, D9EMA
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Below
WPV - Above
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Above
Daily 4H 9EMA - Above
4/5 Bullish
Forecast
Bias: Long
Trade: Long
Special note: We are suggesting a market entry order right now at 1.3060.
We believe market sentiment has shifted to the extreme, and although a lot of data points to retail traders pinning the top here, we think it's the market makers who will come out on top. Positioning long the euro, in any cross, should be used with full size. We will add more details on how to size correctly at a later date.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSE
EURAUD Update
Update: Euro crosses are pulling back, but this is expected. With the RBA event coming up this week, we are placing a buy stop at 1.3110 in tandem with this EURAUD forecast, in the event we get stopped out. The stop on this buy stop will be 1.3015 and the offer levels will remain. In the event our first offer zone is triggered without this trade getting stopped out, the buy stop will be considered cancelled.
#FXFUSE
Confluence
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.3250 - (Offers) WR1, DR2, MR1
1.34 - (Offers) WR2, MM5
1.3530 - (Offers) Mr2, WM6
1.3060 - (Bids) WPV, MS1
1.2930 - (Bids) DS2, WS1, D9EMA
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Below
WPV - Above
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Above
Daily 4H 9EMA - Above
4/5 Bullish
Forecast
Bias: Long
Trade: Long
Special note: We are suggesting a market entry order right now at 1.3060.
We believe market sentiment has shifted to the extreme, and although a lot of data points to retail traders pinning the top here, we think it's the market makers who will come out on top. Positioning long the euro, in any cross, should be used with full size. We will add more details on how to size correctly at a later date.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSEEURUSD Update
Update: Euro crosses are pulling back, but this is expected. With the RBA event coming up this week, we are placing a buy stop at 1.3674 in tandem with this EURUSD forecast, in the event we get stopped out. The stop on this buy stop will be 1.3605 and the offer levels will remain. In the event our first offer zone is triggered without this trade getting stopped out, the buy stop will be considered cancelled.
#FXFUSE
Confluence
The below are key figures that were determined from multiple layers of indicators at a price point. Bids are support, while offers are resistance:
1.3760 - (Offers) WR1, MR1, DR2
1.3880 - (Offers) WR2
1.3970 - (Offers) WM5, MR2
1.3625 - (Bids) DPV, 1H9EMA,
1.3590 - (Bids) WPV, MM4, DS1
Strength
All of the below are measured in respect to the 1H9EMA:
DPV - Above
WPV - Above
MPV - Above
Daily 9EMA - Above
Daily 4H 9EMA - Above
5/5 Bullish
Forecast
Bias: Long
Trade: Long
Special note: We are suggesting a market entry order right now at 1.3625.
We believe market sentiment has shifted to the extreme, and although a lot of data points to retail traders pinning the top here, we think it's the market makers who will come out on top. Positioning long the euro, in any cross, should be used with full size. We will add more details on how to size correctly at a later date.
Please read our execution rules & risk disclaimer.
#FXFUSE