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Japan’s Growth Disappoints in Q4 2013
Japan’s Growth Disappoints as GDP Expands Weaker than Expected
The Japanese economy came in below analyst expectations today for the fourth quarter of 2013. The Gross domestic product or GDP grew at 0.3 percent. Analysts expected it to come in at 0.7 percent.
While the GDP was weaker than we had expected, this does mark the fourth straight month of expansion for Japan’s economy. We also saw a pickup in consumption and in capital spending. These two factors are helping to support the Japanese economy as it is coming out of decades of stagnation.
Japan Exits years of Stagnation, Stimulus Imminent?
For a per annum basis the GDP drew at one percent in Q4. We had expected it to expand at 2.8 percent. There was a chance for a weaker number because we saw a decline in export data as well as a weaker than expected machinery order number. These two offset the rise in personal consumption and capital spending. Thanks to this weak data, our expectations that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will add more stimulus into the economy is reinforced. We could see them inject ¥10 trillion this year to continue supporting the economic recovery.
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Yellen Testifies Before Congress
Yellen Testifies Before Congress
The new Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen testified for the first time before Congress last week. She called for continuity and suggested the unemployment alone did not give an adequate picture of the labor market. In other news we continued to see bad weather effect the economy with weaker retail sales and industrial production falling off sharply for January.
Yellen assured policy makers and investors that she would continue the monetary policies started by her predecessor Dr. Ben Bernanke who left last month. She also helped to calm fears that the Fed would raise interest rate, as we are close to the 6.5 percent unemployment rate target. She acknowledged that Fed needs a more “comprehensive approach” gauge labor market conditions. Using that single rate target is somewhat flawed and does not paint the whole picture in the labor market. Yellen did express some concerns over the long term unemployed and those still left on part time due to economic reasons.
Clues into Future Federal Reserve Policy Making
The long term unemployed as well as those who continue to be part time employed provides some insight towards the Fed’s future policy making decisions. Yellen expects to continue the taper of the Fed’s massive QE program but such decisions remain dependent on economic data. She did reveal she was somewhat surprised by December’s NFP report as well as January’s but noted the continued harsh winter weather played a big role in those weak numbers.
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US Economy: You Want the Good News or The Bad News?
US Economy: Debt Ceiling and Budget Passes Congress
We’ve got some good news and we got some bad news. Seems to have become the story of the U.S. economic recovery. The good news is that Washington managed to pass the debt ceiling law which takes the anchor from around the economy’s neck till next year. Then the passed the budget which removed any further shutdowns until 2015 as well.
The debt limit was passed with much drama. The only thing House speaker John Boehner could do was punt the issue and put a clean bill on the floor. This put the onus on the Democrats to pass the debt bill. He attempted to put something together the Republicans would have liked, but there was such drama that nothing worked. The drama makes the Republicans look like one big dysfunctional family.
Soft Economic Data Continues to Worry Investors
The bad news is that we have gotten a flurry of weak economic reports that hit us last week. This could give the Republicans more ammunition that the administration policies are not working. Still, it way too early to even think this data is indicative of a slowdown and Yellen agrees. One thing is clear, the harsh winter weather is taking its toll.
Retail sales tumbled by a surprising 0.4 percent in January. We expected ... Read more
Cross-Selling of Binary Options and Spot Forex
Since their debut into the retail financial trading world, in 2008, the binary options industry has been experiencing an explosive growth. If there have been any doubts about whether this phenomenal growth is just a passing trend before then, this is no longer the case now. Beginning from 2013, the binary options industry has drawn the interest of the online forex brokers who are keen to explore the opportunities offered by binary options.
In 2013, the binary trading industry have the entrance of several leading online forex brokers such as Alpari, , IG Group and recently the Swiss-based Forex bank Dukascopy expanding their product offerings to include binary options. As late 2012, it was seen that binary options trading and spot forex trading appeal to two entirely different category of traders. Now in 2014, the perception is hardly distinguishable between the two. In short, what we are witnessing is the embracement by the spot forex industry the incorporation of the concept of cross-selling with these two markets. Even this paradigm shift is reflected in the platforms used by the brokers.
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China's Looming Property Bubble
China’s Looming Property Bubble
The world likes to focus its attention on China’s shadow-banking issues so much so, that we have neglected another real problem that is, maybe even worse. It is the long bubbling property sector that poses an even greater threat to the world’s second largest economy.
Over the past year, we have seen housing prices across many cities in China set record highs. This is despite Beijing’s four year campaign to cool the property market. We even had many local governments being forced to implement a new round of curbs this past November. These efforts included raising the minimum deposit for down payments on second homes. They also promised to supply more land for residential construction.
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China’s Manufacturing Slows Even More China PMI
China PMI Down
China’s manufacturing activity continues to slow down. Today’s Markit/HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) came in at a seven month low for February. Once again, worries regarding the health of China’s economic strength are coming to the surface, as slowdown concerns develop.
The private PMI came is below contraction level at 48.3. The final reading for January came in at 49.5. Remember, a reading of 50 and above indicates expansion, anything below that indicates contraction. This is the second straight month that this indicator has fallen to below 50.
We are clearly seeing a slowing of economic activity in early 2014. This could be from the tighter credit in Q4 2013, which has made inventories harder to finance. This has caused manufacturers to destock this month.
Swift reaction from Asian Markets
US Economy: You Want the Good News or The Bad News?
We’ve got some good news and we got some bad news. Seems to have become the story of the U.S. economic recovery. The good news is that Washington managed to pass the debt ceiling law which takes the anchor from around the economy’s neck till next year. Then the passed the budget which removed any further shutdowns until 2015 as well.
The debt limit was passed with much drama. The only thing House speaker John Boehner could do was punt the issue and put a clean bill on the floor. This put the onus on the Democrats to pass the debt bill. He attempted to put something together the Republicans would have liked, but there was such drama that nothing worked. The drama makes the Republicans look like one big dysfunctional family.
Soft Economic Data Continues to Worry Investors
The bad news is that we have gotten a flurry of weak economic reports that hit us last week. This could give the Republicans more ammunition that the administration policies are not working. Still, it way too early to even think this data is indicative of a slowdown and Yellen agrees. One thing is clear, the harsh winter weather is taking its toll.
Retail sales tumbled by a surprising 0.4 percent in January. We expected an increase. Industrial Production fell by 0.3 percent, we had expected a 0.2 percent fain. Heating bills rose, thanks to cold, taking away from consumer spending, increasing inventories and hitting new factory orders.
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Japan and Thailand in Focus this Week As Voilence Continues
Japan and Thailand in Focus: Violence Continues in Thailand
We are expecting a flurry of economic data to come out of Japan this week. Focus will be on whether we are seeing their economy lose momentum. Weak data will raise concerns the economic recovery is slowing down. We are also focused on the political turmoil in Thailand, after weekend violence heightened concerns. We also saw Ukraine’s President, Viktor Yunukovych ousted as well.
We are entering this week with a new government in the Ukraine, unrest in Thailand, data from Japan and housing data that slowed in China. What does all this mean for the region and emerging markets?
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FUNDAMENTAL REVIEW: The US Weather Continues to Pummel the Economy
The US Weather Continues to Pummel the Economy
The weather is continuing to effect the data coming out of the United States as severe winter weather continues to pummel much of the nation. Housing market data, home construction as well as existing home sales all slowed dramatically in January. Inflation remained in check. There was evidence energy was in demand, probably because of the cold weather, and that put upward pressure on inflation. Even with the weaker than expected data since the start of 2014, we consider this a blip thanks to the adverse weather. We remain quite bullish on the economic growth of the U.S. we think the gross domestic product (GDP) will continue to expand between 1.2 and 1.5 percent for Q1 2014.
Last week, housing data showed housing starts tumbled 16 percent in January to 880K unit pace. December’s number was revised up to 1.048 million units. Building permit activity also fell on the month. This means the softness in housing starts will spill over into February. While the extremely weaker than expecting housing start number does pose questions about a slowdown in the housing market, building permit activity is still 2.4 percent higher on an annum basis. Also the number of homes under construction is way above last year’s level lending support to the weather argument.
Existing home sales also fell in January, losing 5.1 percent. Single family homes sales fell by 5.8 percent and multifamily units was flat. Once the spring thaw starts, these numbers should shoot higher again.
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Reducing Bitcoins Trading Risks With Binary Options
For many people, everyone’s favourite crypto currency bitcoin means different things to them. For some, its anonymity represents an expedient way of paying for illegal goods and services over the internet. For others, it’s a mean of storing wealth in today’s uncertain economic climate. For speculators, its volatility presents them with plenty of opportunities to profit from speculating in it.
Since the beginning of 2013, bitcoins prices have surged from a modest $30 to more than $1200. At its peak, bitcoins were even trading higher than gold. Nevertheless, with the announcement by the Chinese central bank’s decision to ban transactions in bitcoins, prices have plunged by more than 30%. With Russia taking an even sterner stance than China by ruling bitcoins to be illegal, many bitcoins owners do worry that if more countries were to rule bitcoins to be illegal, that they might suddenly find them owning nothing of value but just a long string of numbers.
The problem with bitcoin as a store of wealth was clearly illustrated when the Tokyo based bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox suspended withdrawals due to errors in their exchange software. Since then, the value of bitcoing has plunged even further. Many owners of bitcoins who have parked their bitcoins at Mt. Gox are beginning to wonder if they will ever get their bitcoins back.
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Brokers Offering Bitcoin Trading