The Gartley Pattern - Truth or Fiction? - page 2
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Gartley pattern is one of the patterns used by traders at a certain site (guess we all know which) and they say that it is their editorial policy not to show the results from previous months, which probably means they've got nothing much to show.
What you just proposed doesn't work statistically...you shorten your chances to win...therefore you are setting yourself up for a loss...trust me here...think not mathematically...think statistics...it's a little different
Actually, based on statistics if you won 70% of the time at, for example 20pips and lost 30% of the time at -20pips then you are definitely making a profit.
For a dumbed down scenario, say we took 10 trades, 70% win, 30% loss at +20/-20 pips (unlikely for a such a small number of trades but this is an example).
winning 7 trades (70%) and loosing 3 trades (30%) would give us 7*20 - 3*30 = 80 pips. Looks like profits to me.
You're right that you have more of a chance at making a loss with 30% rather than, say, 10%, but you are still making a decent profit, and that's what counts.
If you could please shed some light on what you are trying to say we would all be eternally grateful.
MIGHT AS WELL USE A HOROSCOPE INDICATOR
The biggest success story I've heard that used the Fibonacci numbers was about a man call Larry Pesavento. One of the tools he kept in his arsenal was astrology. So I'll go with the horoscope indicator option ;-). However, I don't see why people should turn away from these patterns if they can use them, the more information the better.
if gartley was so good, why isn't everyone using it?
Gartley pattern is one of the patterns used by traders at a certain site (guess we all know which) and they say that it is their editorial policy not to show the results from previous months, which probably means they've got nothing much to show.
if gartley was so good, why isn't everyone using it?
@witsnpips, I agree, sumatra pointed out that they don't show they're past results, it can't be that hard to just point out all the times in the past where the pattern has appeared and give the statistics on it's performance.
From the literature I've read, it does not appear to be very systematic, the traders seem to pick the highs and lows at whim. That's great in hind sight, but not so great practically. I could be wrong though. I'm used to algorithms to pick the highs and lows (lagged of course) to produce a swing chart.
MIGHT AS WELL USE A HOROSCOPE INDICATOR
Lol, don't think it's that bad.
Lol, don't think it's that bad.
hahaha, no, I'm 100% sure it's not as bad.
@witsnpips, I agree, sumatra pointed out that they don't show they're past results, it can't be that hard to just point out all the times in the past where the pattern has appeared and give the statistics on it's performance. From the literature I've read, it does not appear to be very systematic, the traders seem to pick the highs and lows at whim. That's great in hind sight, but not so great practically. I could be wrong though. I'm used to algorithms to pick the highs and lows (lagged of course) to produce a swing chart.
apparently gartley himself never used fibonacci...
apparently gartley himself never used fibonacci...
Yes, a quick google clearly shows that his book Profits in the Stock Market, (1935) has absolutely no mention of Fibonacci, ontop of that, different people have assigned different ratios, not every interprets the pattern in the same way with respect to Fibonacci numbers.
Yes, a quick google clearly shows that his book Profits in the Stock Market, (1935) has absolutely no mention of Fibonacci, ontop of that, different people have assigned different ratios, not every interprets the pattern in the same way with respect to Fibonacci numbers.
Thats right, the fibo ratios were added from Larry Pesavento in his book "Fibonacci Rations with Pattern Recognition" Also the risk reward ratio is usually bigger than 1:1, dependig on what trigger you are using.