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AceTraderFx Sept 9: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 09 Sep 2015 00:30GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Turning down
21 HR EMA
1.1186
55 HR EMA
1.1176
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
57
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 decline resumes
Resistance
1.1294 - Last Wed's European res
1.1244 - Last Thur's high
1.1229 - Y'day's high
Support
1.1122 - Mon's low
1.1087 - Y'day's 2-week low
1.1052 - 50% proj. of 1.1715-1.1156 fm 1.1332
. EUR/USD - 1.1182... Despite euro's strg rebound fm Asian 1.1154 low to 1.1229 in early Europe after downbeat China trade data, cross-selling in euro vs stg n yen knocked price down to 1.1153 near European midday b4 moving sideways.
. Looking at the daily picture, last week's resumption of decline fm Aug's 7-month peak at 1.1715 to 1.1087 strongly suggests early MT upmove fm 2015 12-year bottom at 1.0457 (Mar) has ended there n as price has literally reached the 'natural' 50% retracement objective at 1.1086, a daily close below there would extend weakness twd 1.0938 (61.8% r), however, as daily technical indicators' readings would be in o/sold territory on such a move, reckon sup at 1.0818 would hold on 1st testing. Therefore, selling euro on recovery is favoured as only abv 1.1332 (reaction high fm 1.1156) signals 1st leg of decline over n risks stronger stronger gain to 1.1500/10 b4 prospect of another fall later this month.
. Today, as y'day's rebound to 1.1229 suggests initial choppy trading abv last Thur's low at 1.1087 wud be seen with mild upside bias, we are looking to buy on dips but wud look to exit on next rise as res 1.1294 shud remain intact today n yield another decline later.
AceTraderFx Sept 8: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 09 Sep 201508:28 GMT
USD/JPY - 120.65
Despite the greenback's retreat to 120.60 last Friday, subsequent strong rebound suggests the pullback from 121.74 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 120.70, above would add credence to this view and yield further gain towards 121.40/42 later this week.
However, aforesaid resistance should remain intact due to near term loss of momentum and yield pullback.
On the upside, only above resistance at 120.92 would indicate above mentioned pullback has ended and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of 121.74.
AceTraderFx Sept 9: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 10 Sep 2015 01:22 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1231
Despite euro's selloff to 1.1090 following the release of mixed U.S. jobs report, subsequent rebound to 1.1229 on Tuesday, then to 1.1245 today at Asian open suggests further choppy trading above last Thursday's low at 1.1087 would continue with mild upside bias and gain towards 1.1270/80 would be seen.
However, resistance at 1.1294 should remain intact this week and bring another retreat later.
On the downside, only below 1.1087 would revive bearishness for a resumption of recent decline and extend weakness towards 1.1050/52.
AceTraderFx Sept10: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
10 Sep 2015 00:30GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Dlr fell ahead of Asian open due to renewed buying of Yen on risk aversion following downbeat Japanese data.
Reuters reported earlier Japanese machinery orders unexpectedly fell for a 2nd straight month in July, fuelling concerns that weak business investment could undermine a recovery from an economic contraction in the 2nd quarter.
Core machinery orders, a highly volatile data series regarded as an indicator of capital spending in the coming 6 to 9 months, fell 3.6% in July, the Cabinet office data showed on Thursday. That followed a 7.9% month-on-month decline in June and were far worse than a 3.7% increase expected by economists.
The weak data comes as a recent run of soft indicators cast doubt on the Bank of Japan's optimism that a steady economic recovery will help bring inflation to its 2% goal by around September 2016, keeping the bank under pressure to act.
Sluggish spending by firms and persistent weakness in private consumption and exports add to worries about slowing growth in China - Japan's biggest trading partner - which has unnerved global investors.
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Intra-Day News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
10 Sep 2015 03:16GMT
GBP/USD - ...... Despite a brief rebound from yesterday's European low at 1.5350 to 1.5391 in New York morning, the British pound met renewed selling interest and retreated to 1.5353 in New York afternoon.
Cable continues to remain under pressure in Asian morning as investors await the release of BoE's policy statement and meeting minutes later today.
BoE will release its interest rate decision, QE total, policy statement n meeting minutes at 11:00GMT.
Although no change is expected on the policy front, traders shud be on the look out for the vote hike count and also the language used by the central bank regarding the country's economic recovery.
Offers are now seen at 1.5380/90 and more below at 1.5400/10 with stops building up above there whilst initial bids are noted at 1.5320/30, suggesting further choppy trading would be seen till European open.
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
10 Sep 2015 05:37GMT
USD/JPY - ...... The greenback met renewed buying at 120.31 in post-Tokyo lunch session at 120.31 and spiked up to 121.32 before swiftly paring its gains.
Part of the move was due to comments fm Senior LDP member Yamamoto heads an economic advisory group and has previously advised PM Abe, on Bloomberg TV. He pushed for a case of more easing fm BoJ in its October meeting.
He suggested that Japan needs JPY 3.5-5 trln spending in extra budget and that Japan should issue new JGBs for extra stimulus BOJ should increase asset buys by at least JPY 10 trln, it is imperative that inflation reaches BOJ goal around H1 FY2016.'
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 10 Sep 2015 08:16 GMT
USD/JPY - 120.88
Despite the greenback's retreat to 120.60 last Friday, subsequent strong rebound and spike up to 121.34 today suggests the pullback from 121.74 has possibly ended there and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 121.50/60.
However, aforesaid resistance should remain intact on first testing and bring a retreat later today or tomorrow.
On the upside, only above resistance at 120.92 would indicate above mentioned pullback has ended and turn outlook bullish for a re-test of 121.74.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 11 Sep 2015 01:01 GMT
EUR/USD - 1.1279
Euro's rally to 1.1295 yesterday and intra-day breach of this level signals the rise from last Thursday's trough at 1.1087 to retrace the decline from August's peak at 1.1715 remains in progress and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 1.1300/02, then marginally higher. However, loss of momentum would prevent strong rise above there and reckon resistance at 1.1332 would hold and yield a much-needed correction later.
On the downside, only below 1.1229 (previous resistance, now support) would indicate a temporary top has been made and yield stronger weakness towards 1.1172.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
11 Sep 2015 01:49GMT
USD/JPY - ..... The pair swung wildly in hectic trading on Thursday. Dlr staged a recovery from yesterday's 119.98 low (AUS) initially and spiked to session highs of 121.34 on Blooomberg headlines ruling LDP lawmaker Kozo Yamamoto (speaking in an interveiw with BLP) said the BoJ's October 30 meeting would be "good opportunity" for further easing.
Despite subsequent choppy sideways swings in European morning, dlr's broad-based weakness near European close pressured price to 120.46 before moving higher to 120.97 at Asian open today due to renewed cross-selling in yen.
Looks like consolidation is in store as offers are tipped at 121.00/10 and more above with stops above 121.35.
However, more selling interest is reported below daily res at 121.74.
On the downside, some bids are touted at 120.60-50 with stops below 120.40, suggesting consolidation with downside bias is in store.
Data to be released on Friday:
New Zealand manufacturing PMI, Germany CPI and HICP, France current account, Italy industrial output, Eurogroup meeting, U.S. PPI, University of Michigan consumer sentiment, and Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Intra-day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
11 Sep 2015 04:00GMT
GBP/USD - ...... The British pound trades narrowly in subdued Asian morning after yesterday's rally to a fresh 2-week high at 1.5476 after yesterday's intra-day swings after BoE's latest policy statement showed policymakers are less worried about the domestic impact of turmoil in global markets.
The pound jumped to 1.5449 after the expected MPC vote outcome and quickly retreated to 1.5377 on profit taking. Price later rallied in tandem with euro in New York morning to 1.5476 and later retreated to 1.5435 in Australia on Friday.
However, the pair found renewed support and staged a rebound to 1.5451 at Asian open.
Since there is no eco. data due from the UK today, price is likely to track euro's intra-day movements in European morning.
Bids are noted at 1.5420/30 and more below at 1.5400/10 with stops building up below there whilst initial offers are noted at 1.5470/80 and more above 1.5500.