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AceTraderFx Feb 12: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 12 Feb 2015 00:16GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Turning up
21 HR EMA
1.1312
55 HR EMA
1.1312
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Neutral
13 HR RSI
51
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Choppy trading b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.1431 - Last Fri's European morning low (now res)
1.1392 - Last Thur's NY low (now res)
1.1360 - Mon's high
Support
1.1270 - Mon's low
1.1262 - Jan 29 low
1.1224 - Jan 27 low
. EUR/USD - 1.1321... Euro spent another lackluster day on Wed n gyrated inside Mon's range n with a soft bias. Price retreated after a brief bounce to 1.1331 in Asia n later, euro edged lower in NY 1.1280 b4 jumping to 1.1353 in Australia but only to fall after 'no deal' was reached on Greece talk.
. On the bigger picture, euro's early decline fm last Tue's high of 1.1534 signals at least the 1st leg of correction fm Jan's 11-year trough at 1.1098 has ended there n volatile consolidation with downside bias is in store. Price is expected to head to 1.1262/65, this is chart sup n 'dynamic' 61.8% r of 1.1098-1.1534 respectively n then twd 1.1221/24 sup after consolidation, however, only a daily close below 1.1202 (prev. res, now sup) wud suggest aforesaid correction has ended, euro wud be en route to re-test 1.1098, then 'psychological' 1.1000 later this week. On the upside, only abv 1.1499 wud prolong choppy trading abv 1.1098 n risk another rise twd 1.1534, break there wud risk stronger correction of the MT intermediate fall fm 1.2254-1.1098 twd 1.1676 (50% r).
. Today, we're holding a short position for one more fall to 1.1245/55 n only firm rise abv 1.1355/60 res may risk stronger retrace. to 1.1390/00 later.
AceTraderFx Feb 13: Intra-Day News and Views (AUD/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Feb 2015 01:06GMT
AUD/USD - ..... Reuters news are quoting comments by RBA Governor Glenn Stevens & Assistant Governor Christopher Kent.
Kent says "there is some range of uncertainty around that forecast".
Stevens says : "- enough spare capacity in economy that could grow above trend for couple of years;
-Australia business has significant lack of confidence, risks talking itself into gloom" and forecast is that unemployment will peak around 6.4%;
-is some range of uncertainty around that forecast and unemployment has been edging up, to keep happening for little while yet.
He continues his testimony before the parliament, quote:
- economy growing at below trend pace
- inflation is low and appears likely to remain so
- further fall in a$ likely to occur
- commodity prices have fallen quite sharply in some cases
- monetary policy still has capacity to give additional support to economy
- fall in key export commodities hurting Australia's terms of trade
- mining downswing will accelerate this year
- bank's forecasts assume lower path for interest rates, but is not a commitment to action
- domestic demand outside mining mixed
- public sector spending still fairly subdued
- working with other regulators on managing potential risks from rise in housing investment
- developments in Sydney housing market remain concerning; not alarming elsewhere
- unwise to react too strongly to one unemployment number
- unemployment has been edging up, to keep happening for little while yet
- unemployment remains low by historical standards
Friday will see the release of China CB Leading Economic Index, France's GDP, Non-Farm Payrolls, Germany GDP, WPI, Switzerland's Producer/Import Price, Italy's GDP, euro zone's Trade Balance, GDP, Canada's Manufacturing Sales, U.S.'s Export Prices, Import Prices, and University of Michigan Sentiment.
AceTraderFx Feb 13: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (GBP/USD)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
13 Feb 2015 06:29GMT
GBP/USD- ...... Breaking news, Bank of England's Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe says allegations around HSBC raise serious issues around HSBC's conduct;
-allegations around HSBC are certainly something which could be of relevance to us.
He says impact of oil prices should come out of UK inflation within a year or so - BBC radio.
-UK growth is robust, seeing signs UK has turned corner on productivity;
-euro area in stronger position now to deal with a Greek exit from eurozone, but would be big event;
-at the moment we are not seeing the conditions where we would reduce interest rates, do more QE.
This morning Cable trades steadily in subdued Asian morning after yesterday's spectacular rally from 1.5209 in Europe to session high of 1.5415 (NY) after the BoE upgraded U.K. growth outlook n raised inflation expectation in its quarterly Inflation Report.
Sterling's intra-day rally in hectic European trading triggered a series of buy stops above 1.5300, then 1.5360 and later above 1.5400.
Expect sideways move below Thursday's 5-week high at 1.5415 to continue ahead of European open n with no U.K. data are due out, cable is likely to take cue from intra-day swings in the eur/usd.
AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2015 00:24GMT
USD/JPY - ...... Breaking news from Reuters, Japan ECONMIN Amari comments, quote:
GDP deflator shows favourable situation towards beating deflation;
expect firm private demand - led economic recovery ahead;
hope wage hikes will materialise this year;
Q4 GDP growth due to private consumption backed by improving job market, exports to US and China.
Japan's economy grew an annualised 2.2% in Oct-Dec to emerge from a recession triggered by last year's sales tax hike, boding well for premier Shinzo Abe's efforts to beat back decades of stagnation.
But the expansion was smaller than a 3.7% increase forecast in a Reuters poll, suggesting a fragile recovery for the world's third-largest economy as consumer mood remained soft and uneven global growth weighed on exports.
Amari further says, quote:
real wages increases and consumer sentiment key to private consumption ahead;
real wages turned positive in December and consumer sentiment improved; improvement in consumer sentiment gives reason to be positive about future; delay in second sales tax hike was one factor behind improvement in consumer sentiment in Dec;
agreement by some firms to increase wages also helped consumer sentiment.
Data to be release this week:
New Zealand's Retail Sales, Japan's GDP, Capacity Utilization index, Industrial Output, U.K.'s Rightmove House Price, euro zone's Trade Balance on Monday. Markets in U.S. will be closed due to President's Day Holiday.
Australia's RBA Meeting Minutes, China's House Prices, Italy's Trade Balance, U.K.'s CPI, PPI, RPI, Germany's Zew reports, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Markets, Net L-T Flows, Overall Capital Flows on Tuesday.
Australia's CB Leading Indicator, Westpac Leading Index, Japan's BoJ rate decision and press conference, U.K.'s Average Earnings, Claimant Count, ILO Unemployment Rate, BoE's MPC vote outcome, BoE's meeting minutes, Switzerland's ZEW Investor Sentiment, Canada's Wholesale Trade, U.S.'s Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization and Fed FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Market in China will be closed due to Chinese New Year Holiday.
Japan's Trade Balance, Exports, Imports, Switzerland's Trade Balance, France's CPI, euro zone's Current Accounts, Consumer Confidence, U.K.'s CBI Trends, U.S.'s Leading Index Change, Intiail Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index on Thursday.
Japan's Reuters Tankan DI, Germany's Producer Prices, Markit's Manufacturing Index and Service Index for Germany, Italy and euro zone, Italy's Industrial Orders, CPI, U.K.'s PSNB, PSNCR, Retails Sales, Canada's Retail Sales on Friday.
AceTraderFx Feb 16: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY)
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
16 Feb 2015 08:13GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Dlr traded in choppy fashion in Asian session. Despite initial weakness to 118.20 in shortly after NZ open, lack of follow-through selling quickly lifted the pair.
The intra-day higher open in the N225 index and then gain to a near 8-year peak of 18074 boosted risk appetite, dlr rebounded to 116.79 before coming off to 118.37.
Current sideways move in Europe suggests consolidation with mild upside bias remains.
Bids are noted at 118.40-20 area with stops below there, more stops are touted below 118.00.
Offers are tipped at 118.75/85 and more above with stops reported above 119.20.
Comments from Japan PM Abe says BOJ's monetary easing has helped create virtuous economic cycle, fend off deflationary mindset; hope BOJ steadily continues bold monetary easing to achieve its price target; specific monetary policy means are left for BOJ to decide, when asked about demerits of excessive monetary easing; expect BOJ to communicate effectively with markets, act in accordance with its stance of adjusting policy as needed in response to upside, downside risks.
Earlier the greenback opened lower to an intra-day low of 118.20 in NZ/AUS today but buying interest quickly emerged and lifted price to 118.79 in Tokyo morning due to the rise in Nikkei-225 index (hit the highest level in nearly eight year) following the strength in global stock markets on Friday.
On the data front, Japan GDP was 0.6% q/q in Q4 2014, weaker than economists' forecast of 0.9%.
The annualised GDP was 2.2% versus the expectation of 3.7%. Trading is expected to be thin as U.S. market is closed on Monday due to President's Day Holiday.
AceTraderFx Feb 17: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Feb 2015 00:39GMT
EUR/USD - ..... Euro tumbled in thin North American afternoon session when news of a breakdown in the debt deal between Eurogroup & Greece. Reuters reported Greek FinMin Yanis Varoufakis said on Monday that he had been prepared to agree to a deal with creditors that would have given Athens 4 to 6 months additional credit in return for putting major new budget policies on hold.
He said the European Commission had put such a suggestion to him before Mon's meeting of EZ FinMins but that it had been superseded by a different draft proposal - fm Eurogroup President Jeroen Dijsselbloem - that he could not sign because it obliged Athens to extend its current bailout package. Dijsselbloem's proposal was "highly problematic," he said.
A Commission official said EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici had "contributed ideas" in discussions with Varoufakis but that only the Eurogroup proposal was the object of negotiations.
Varoufakis said he remained ready to sign a proposal based on Moscovici's ideas. "I was prepared to sign it this morning, this afternoon, I would sign it at midnight, tomorrow at 9 in the morning.
I would even consider signing some (other) version of it because the point here is not to allow an impasse."
He said he was optimistic a deal would be struck within the next 48 hours. "Europe will do the usual trick. It will pull a good agreement, an honorable agreement, out of what seems to be an impasse," he said.
Data to be released on Tuesday:
Australia's RBA Meeting Minutes, China's House Prices, Italy's Trade Balance, U.K.'s CPI, PPI, RPI, Germany's Zew reports, U.S.'s Redbook, NAHB Housing Markets, Net L-T Flows, Overall Capital Flows.
AceTraderFx Feb 17: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (EUR/USD )
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
17 Feb 2015 08:25GMT
EUR/USD- ..... Although euro gained a moment of respite in Asian trading after staging a recovery from Tuesday's 1.1320 following intra-day sell off in thin North American afternoon session after talks between EZ FinMins & Greek FinMIn collapsed, sellers emerged at 1.1366 n gave the single currency a bashing at European open (as European traders missed the opportunity to sell the euro), however, selling does not appear to be as fierce as y'day's decline, suggesting further steep fall below 1.1320 is unlikely to be seen.
Expect range trading with a soft bias to continue ahead of release of key German & EZ ZEW sentiment, if the readings are lower than street forecast, euro shud head lower to 1.1300.
Offers are tipped at 1.1355/65 n more above with stops reported above 1.1385, some bids are reported at 1.1330-20 with some stops touted below 1.1300, however, there is market chatter of large stops building below 1.1270, so selling euro on recovery is recommended.
An hour ago, Reuters reported that: "Dijsselbloem hopes Greece will ask for extension to programme, then can allow flexibility inside programme; we stand ready to work with Greece over next couple of days.
Greek Finance Minister says Europe will continue to deliberate to achieve good outcome for average European."
While Austrian FIN MIN told German radio: "that eurozone finance ministers are prepared to hold a special meeting, time is pressing; for a deal with Greece, Athens will have to shift its position."
This morning the single currency tumbled to as low as 1.1320 on Monday after news of a breakdown in the EU/Greece debt talk, however, short-covering lifted price briefly but renewed selling was tipped at 1.1360-70 and more at 1.1390-00.
On the downside, bids were located at 1.1320 and 1.1305-00 with some stops seen at 1.1300.
AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Feb 2015 02:11GMT
USD/JPY- ....... Despite yesterday's brief drop to 118.24 in Asia, active short-covering above Monday's low at 118.20 lifted the pair. U.S. dollar ratcheted higher on renewed cross selling in jpy due to improved risk appetite amid speculation Greece will resolve its stand off with creditors.
The pair rose to as high as 119.41 in late NY before easing.
Bids are now located at 119.05-00 n more at 118.80-70.
Trading is thin ahead of a Bank of Japan policy decision.
A piece of news report ahead of BoJ monetary policy announcement worth noting. Reuters reported the BoJ is set to maintain its massive asset buying stimulus spree on Wed n revise up its view on output, even as data showing only a feeble recovery fm recession tempers its optimism.
A much-awaited rebound in exports has offered some hope for BOJ policymakers, who prefer to hold off on expanding stimulus for now even as falling oil prices push inflation further away from its 2% target. Data on Mon confirmed the economy pulled out of recession in the 4th-quarter last year but annualised growth of 2.2% was much weaker than expected, underscoring the lingering impact fm a sales tax hike last Apr.
Still, the BOJ is likely to stick to its view that the economy is recovering moderately, and on track to hit 2% inflation next fiscal year as companies raise wages and spending. With industrial production up 1.0% in Dec n exports having risen the most in a year, the central bank is also seen revising up its view on output and exports, said sources familiar with its thinking.
At Wed's meeting, the BOJ is widely expected to maintain its stimulus programme that pledges to print money at an annual pace of 80 tln yen ($675 bln). Markets are focusing on how Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will respond to criticism, mainly fm opposition lawmakers, that his radical stimulus is spurring excessive yen falls that hurt consumer sentiment by driving up import costs.
With the BOJ's massive bond purchases drying up liquidity and heightening volatility in the bond market, many within the BOJ hope to keep policy steady for now. Advisers to PM Shinzo Abe back the BOJ's wait-and-see stance, worried that more easing could send the yen to damagingly low levels.
Kuroda has been unwavering in his view that a weak yen is good for the economy, n so will reiterate that the BOJ will do whatever it takes to hit 2% inflation, analysts say.
Data to be released on Wednesday:
Australia's CB Leading Indicator, Westpac Leading Index, Japan's BoJ rate decision and press conference, U.K.'s Average Earnings, Claimant Count, ILO Unemployment Rate, BoE's MPC vote outcome, BoE's meeting minutes, Switzerland's ZEW Investor Sentiment, Canada's Wholesale Trade, U.S.'s Building Permits, Housing Starts, Industrial Output, Capacity Utilization and Fed FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Market in China will be closed due to Chinese New Year Holiday.
AceTraderFx Feb 18: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views (USD/JPY )
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
18 Feb 2015 07:11GMT
USD/JPY- BOJ gov Kuroda holds news conference and says, quote:
"positive economic cycle remains intact;
Japan economy continues to recovery moderately as a trend;
exports will continue moderate recovery due to global economy, weak yen.
BOJ will examine both upside, downside risks to economy and prices, and adjust policy as appropriate; also, examine both upside, downside risks to economy and prices, and adjust policy as appropriate;
positive economic cycle remains intact; Japan economy continues to recover moderately as a trend;
exports will continue moderate recovery due to global economy, weak yen; industrial output will continue moderate growth ahead;
inflation expectations appear to be rising on the whole from long-term perspective;
Japan economy to continue moderate recovery trend; consumer inflation likely to reach 2 pct in period centering on fiscal 2015/16;
BOJ's QQE has been exerting its intended effects & continue with QQE for as long as necessary to achieve 2 pct inflation stably;
BOJ will examine both upside, downside risks to economy and prices, and adjust policy as appropriate.
there was no debate at policy meeting about cutting interest rate paid on excess reserves parked at central bank;
environment is in place for increase in workers' base pay, bonuses;
downward pressure from impact of sales tax hike has subsided;
currencies move on various factors so cannot say monetary easing will immediately cause weak currency;
central banks' response to global disinflation trend will contribute to price stability;
no comment on FX levels or pace; monetary policy not targeting currencies; recent long-term rate moves are an adjustment in market; see no big problems now in bond market liquidity.
AceTraderFx Feb 20: Intra-Day News and Views (EUR/USD) & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
20 Feb 2015 06:36GMT
EUR/USD- ..... More about previous news on Greek bailout extension. Reuters reported Greece has made every effort to reach a mutually beneficial agreement with its euro zone partners but will not be pushed to implement its old bailout programe, its gov't spokesman said on Friday.
"The Greek gov't has done all it should at every level in an effort to find a mutually beneficial solution," gov't spokesman Gabriel Sakellaridis told Mega TV.
On Thursday, Germany rejected a Greek proposal for a 6-month extension to its euro zone loan agreement, saying it was "not a substantial solution" because it did not commit Athens to stick to the conditions of its international bailout.
"We are not discussing the continuation of the (bailout) programme," Sakellaridis said. "The Greek government will maintain this stance today, although conditions have matured for a solution to be found at last."
As Greece has done all its should to find mutually beneficial solution with euro zone partners, Greece is not discussing continuing bailout programme and will maintain this position at Eurogroup - gov't spokesman.
Data to be released on Friday:
China market holiday, Japan manufacturing PMI, leading economic index, Germany PPI, services PMI, manufacturing PMI, France services PMI, manufacturing PMI, Italy industrial sales, industrial orders, CPI, EU services PMI, manufacturing PMI, UK retail sales, PSNB, PSNCR, Canada retail sales and U.S. manufacturing PMI.