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AceTraderFx Nov 21 : Euro tumbles broadly on ECB's dovish news
Market Review - 20/11/2013 19:38GMT
Euro tumbles broadly on ECB's dovish news
The single currency tumbled broadly on Wednesday following reports in Bloomberg that sources close to the ECB said central bank will consider cutting deposit rates to below zero if more easing is needed.
During the day, although the single currency rose to session high at 1.3580 in Australia in reaction to Bernanke's comments, price pared gains in Asia and retreated to 1.3517 in European morning before recovering to 1.3547. Later, euro fell again in New York morning after news from Bloomberg said ECB would weigh -0.1% deposit rate if more easing needed. Price penetrated 1.3517 and eventually tumbled to low of 1.3415 after FOMC minutes before stabilizing.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback weakened in Asia and European sessions as an official said proposed reforms of Japan's government-run pension fund may take years to implement. Dollar fell to session low at 99.78 in European morning and then traded sideways before rebounding to 100.25 in New York afternoon after FOMC minutes.
The panel advising Japan's leaders on how to overhaul the 121 trillion-yen Government Pension Investment Fund said the world’s biggest manager of retirement savings should review its holdings of domestic bonds and diversify its investments into overseas assets.
Despite falling to session low at 1.6104 in European morning, the British pound rose to a fresh 3-week high at 1.6178 in New York morning as BoE's MPC minutes painted an upbeat picture of the country's economy, however, dollar's broad-based firmness in New York session pressured price sharply lower and cable retreated back to 1.6097 post FOMC minutes.
BoE stated in MPC minutes that 'MPC sees sustained recovery activity in UK, GDP likely to grow above long-term average in H2; MPC sees distinct upside and downside risks for UK growth after H2; external environment unlikely to drive UK growth, domestic fiscal consolidation to continue, so handover from household to business spending crucial for recovery; unclear about how much of sterling appreciation effect to be passed to consumer prices; MPC growth and inflation projections underline there cud be a case for not raising bank rate immediately when 7% threshold hit.'
Fed Oct minutes stated that 'many Fed members felt if economy warranted it could decide to slow bond purchases at one of its next few minutes; a couple of participants favored lowering the 6.5 percent unemployment rate threshold.
Many members continued to see downside risks to the economic outlook as having diminished at Oct meeting; a few participants inclined to set quantitative floor for inflation; committee met by video conference on Oct 16 to discuss contingencies in event Treasury not able to meet obligations.
Fed staff provided in video conference possible actions Fed could take if there were disruptions to market; Fed considered whether to note impact of government shutdown in Oct statement but decided this might overemphasize role of shutdown in policy deliberations.
Video conference participants saw no need to change Fed operations in case of delayed Treasury payments; most participants thought a reduction in interest paid on excess reserves worth considering at some stage.
Video conference participants generally agreed Fed would use prevailing market value of securities in all transactions if Treasury payments delayed; some participants suggested announcing a timetable for wind-down of bond purchases, or a total size for program.'
AceTraderFx Nov 21: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/KRW
DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1062.70
21 Nov 2013 05:37GMT
Usd's rebound suggests the pullback fm 1074.2
(Nov) has ended at 1054.8 (Tue) n consoldiation
with upside bias wud be seen for gain to 1067/68.
Stand aside n look to buy on dips. Only below
1059.5 aborts bullishness n yield 1054.6.
STRATEGY : Stand aside
RES : 1071.7/1074.3/1077.0
SUP : 1059.5/1054.6/1048.0
AceTraderFx Nov 21: Daily Technical Outlook on GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
21 Nov 2013 00:22GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
1.6120
55 HR EMA
1.6116
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
40
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with downside bias
Resistance
1.6208 - Oct 28 high
1.6178 - Y'day's high
1.63149 - Mon's high
Support
1.6060 - Tue's low
1.6048 - Last Fri's low
1.5988 - Last Thur's low
. GBP/USD - 1.6088.. Despite initial bounce to 1.6143 in Aust. Wed, price
retreated to 1.6104 at European open. However, cable rose after BoE minutes signalled the U.K. economy is recovering n price to climbed a 3-week high of 1.6178 in NY b4 tanking to 1.6087 after release of mildly hawkish FOMC minutes.
. Y'day's decline fm 1.6178 to 1.6087 strongly suggests cable's near term upmove fm Nov's near 2-month low at 1.5854 has made a top there n further choppy trading below 2013 peak at 1.6260 (Oct) wud be seen with downside bias, below 1.6060 sup wud add credence to this view n bring weakness to next chart sup at 1.6048, however, as hourly oscillators' readings wud be in o/sold territory on such move, reckon 1.6016 (this is a 'natural' 50% r of aforesaid rise fm 1.5854- 1.6178) wud contain weakness n bring subsequent rebound.
. Today, anticipated usd's broad-based strength shud weigh on the pound n selling cable on intra-day recovery is therefore recommended, however, profit shud be taken on subsequent decline. On the upside, only abv 1.6149/54 res wud dampen bearishness on cable n may risk re-test of 1.6178 but 1.6208 shud hold.
AceTraderFx Nov 22: USD climbs to a 4-mth high against yen on Fed tapering & rising..
Market Review - 21/11/2013 23:52GMT
Dollar climbs to a 4-month high against yen on Fed tapering and rising U.S. treasury yields
The greenback rose to a fresh four-month peak versus the yen on Thursday despite mixed U.S. economic data after the minutes of the Federal Reserve's latest meeting indicated that stimulus tapering could begin in the next few months. The benchmark U.S. 10-year treasury yield climbed to 2.8%.
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar traded with a firm undertone in Asia and rose to 100.85 in European morning, helped by BoJ stuck to its pledge to expand the monetary base at a policy meeting today. Price eventually rose to a fresh 4-month peak at 101.17 in New York morning after the release of better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims.
U.S. jobless claims came in better-than-expected at 323K versus forecasts of 335K. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia said that its manufacturing index fell to 6.5 in November, from 19.8 in October
Although the single currency remained under pressure in Asia and dropped to session low at 1.3400 in European morning due to weaker-than-expected French manufacturing and services PMI, price pared intra-day losses and rose to session high at 1.3477 ahead of New York open as European Central Bank President Mario Draghi dampened speculation of negative deposit rates. Later, euro moved marginally higher to 1.3487 before easing in New York afternoon trading.
France Manufacturing PMI in Nov came in at 47.8, worse than the forecast of 49.5. France Service PMI came in at 48.8, worse than the forecast of 51.0.
The ECB's President Mario Draghi said 'Don't try to infer anything from what I say, anything about the possibility of negative rates; this was discussed in the last monetary-policy meeting and there's no more news since then.'
Although the British pound retreated in tandem with euro in Asia to session low at 1.6072, price found buying interest there and rose to 1.6141 at New York open and then later above Wednesday's 1.6178 high to 1.6200 near the close.
In other news, German FinMin Wolfgang Schaeuble said 'monetary policy cannot be the only way out of crisis, ECB mandate must remain limited; monetary policy must not promote false stimulus.'
Data to be release on Friday:
Japan BoJ monthly economic report, Germany GDP, export, import, Ifo current assessment, Ifo business climate, Canada CPI and retail sales.
AceTraderFx Nov 22 : Daily Technical Outlook on USD/CHF
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON USD/CHF
22 Nov 2013 00:34GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Sideways
Daily Indicators
Neutral
21 HR EMA
0.9150
55 HR EMA
0.9146
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Falling
13 HR RSI
44
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation with a neutral bias
Resistance
0.9251 - Nov's high (7th)
0.9226 - Last Tue's high
0.9194 - Wed's high
Support
0.9123 - Wed's European high
0.9080 - Wed's low (Aust.)
0.9029 - 61.8% r of 0.8891-0.9251
. USD/CHF - 0.9142 ... Despite initial firmness in Asia y'day following a
strg rally fm 0.9080 to as high as 0.9194 on Wed, dlr failed to re-test 0.9194 n fell in Europe due to intra-day rebound in eur/usd, dlr fell to 0.9128 in NY,
then marginally to 0.9125 in Aust. today b4 staging a recovery at Asian open.
. Looking at the daily chart, although Wed's strg bounce fm 0.9080 to 0.9194 signals correction fm Nov's 6-week peak at 0.9251 has ended n re-test of this res lvl is envisaged next week, abv there wud confirm the MT rise fm 2013 trough at 0.8891 (Oct) has once again resumed, then gain to 0.9304 wud be seen later this month, being a 'minimum' 38.2% r of the MT 3-legged fall fm 0.9972 (2012 peak in Jul)to 0.8891. Having said that, dlr's aforesaid retreat fm 0.9194 to 0.9125 earlier today suggests choppy consolidation wud be seen b4 prospect of subsequent resumption of aforesaid upmove.
. Today, although dlr's rebound fm 0.9125 signals erratic fall fm 0.9194
has made a low, abv NY high at 0.9165 is needed to turn outlook bullish for re
test of 0.9194, then twd 0.9226. Below 0.9123/25 may risk weakness twd 0.9080.
AceTraderFX Nov 25 : Euro rises on upbeat German Ifo busiess confidence
Market Review - 23/11/2013 01:46GMT
Euro rises on upbeat German Ifo busiess confidence
The single currency gained against the U.S. dollar and yen after German business confidence climbed to its highest level since April 2012, damping early speculation the European Central Bank will reduce its record low interest rate anytime soon.
Earlier in Asia, despite trading sideways below Thursday's high of 1.3487, the single currency found buying interest at 1.3463 and started to ratchet higher at European open, euro jumped versus the U.S. dollar and yen after the release of better-than-expected German Ifo business confidence and climbed to 1.3539 in New York morning and later to sessions high of 1.3560 near New York, just below this week's high at 1.3580 on Wednesday. Euro also rallied to a fresh 4-year peak of 137.37 versus the Japanese yen.
German IFO business climate in November came in at 109.3, better than street forecast of 107.7.
The greenback remained firm against the yen on Friday, after positive U.S. economic reports on Thursday fuelled further expectations for the Federal Reserve to begin scaling back its stimulus program in the near future. Dollar resumed its recent ascent and rose to fresh 4-1/2 month high at 101.36 in Australia, however, price pared intra-day gains on profit-taking and retreated to session low at 100.96 at European open. Later, dollar found renewed buying interest and rebounded to 101.35 near New York close,
The British pound also traded sideways in Asia and briefly edged up to 1.6217 in European morning before trading in choppy fashion in New York morning. Later, cable rose in tandem with euro in New York afternoon trading and climbed marginally higher to 1.6219.
On the data front, German GDP in Q3 came in at 0.3% m/m n 1.1% y/y, same as expectation. German Ifo current assessment and expectation in November came in at 111.2 and 106.3 respectively, stronger than the forecast of 111.6 n 104.0 respectively. In other news, ECB President Mario Draghi said 'situation in euro area has improved greatly, still face challenges; need to secure recovery; price stability mandate works in both directions; interest rates are low because the economy is weak.'
Data to be released next week :
France business climate, U.K. BBA loans for house purchase, U.S. pending home sales on Monday.
Japan MPC minutes, Italy consumer confidence, U.S. housing start, building permits, S&P home price index, house price index and consumer confidence on Tuesday.
New Zealand trade balance, exports, imports, Swiss consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Germany consumer confidence, U.K. GDP, CBI distributive trade, U.S. jobless claim, durable goods, Chicago Fed index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan consumer confidence and leading indicators on Wednesday.
New Zealand ANZ Business confidence, Japan retail sales, Swiss GDP, U.K. Lloyds business barometer, EU Business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany HICP, CPI, unemployment change unemployment rate, Canada PPI. U.S. financial market is closed Thursdaydue to Thanksgiving Day holiday.
Japan manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, U.K. consumer confidence, Mortgage approvals, France PPI, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, EU unemployment rate CPI, Canada GDP on Friday.
AceTraderFx Nov 25: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotic USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11720
25 Nov 2013 04:29GMT
As usd has eased fm Thur's high at 11725, sug-
gesting minor consolidation wud be seen b4 the re-
sumption of LT upmove twd 11800.
Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, below
wud risk stronger pullback to 11625.
STRATEGY : Long at 11640
POSITION :Long at 11640
OBJECTIVE : 11800
STOP-LOSS : 11680
RES : 11725/11750/11800
SUP : 11625/11550/11513
AceTraderFx Nov 25: Weekly Outlook on GBP/USD
WEEKLY GBP/USD OUTLOOK - 1.6228
25 Nov 2013 03:38GMT
Cable's rally abv res at 1.6178 (now sup) has
turned outlook bullish for a re-test of Oct's high
at 1.6260, abv there wud extend MT rise fm Jul's 3-
year trough at 1.4814 twd 2013 peak at 1.6380 (Jan)
but break there needed to yield further headway twd
next projected target at 1.6433 in Dec.
Turn long on dips in anticipation of such a move
n only below 1.6109 signals temp. top is in place,
risks weakness to 1.6072 n possibly twd 1.6000.
STRATEGY : Buy at 1.6195
OBJECTIVE : 1.6350
STOP-LOSS : 1.6140
RES : 1.6260/1.6380/1.6433
SUP : 1.6178/1.6072/1.5988
AceTraderFx Nov 26: Yen falls to a fresh 6-month low against dollar on risk appetite
Market Review - 25/11/2013 23:01GMT
Yen falls to a fresh 6-month low against dollar on risk appetite
The Japanese yen fell to near 6-month low against the greenback on Monday due to improved risk appetite after an accord was struck to set limits on Iran's nuclear program.
Dollar found renewed buying at 101.14 at Asian open and rose to a 6-month high at 101.92 at European open, however, profit-taking pressured price from there and dollar later dropped to 101.64 in European morning and then 101.58 in New York morning after release of lower-than-expected U.S. pending home sales (October), dollar later weakened to 101.40 near New York close before recovering.
The single currency retreated after failure to penetrate last Friday's high of 1.3560 and remained under pressure in Asian session, dropped to 1.3508 in European morning. Despite a brief rebound to 1.3528 in New York morning, renewed cross-selling interest in euro capped recovery and price fell to session low at 1.3490 before staging a minor recovery in New York afternoon.
Although the British pound resumed its recent ascent and rose to a fresh 3-week high at 1.6241 in Australia, price retreated to 1.6184,
weighed by release of poor BBA mortgage approvals. Cable remained under pressure at New York trading and fell further to session low at 1.6134 before stabilizing.
BBA mortgage approvals came in lower-than-expected at 42.8K vs forecasts of 45.0K.
On the data front, France INSEE business climate (industry morale) in Nov came in at 98, better than the forecast of 97.
In other news, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said 'Germany will only benefit if Europe does well; Europe is more important than internal market; must't accept high unemployment in Europe.'
Data to be release on Tuesday:
Japan MPC minutes, Italy consumer confidence, U.S. housing start, building permits, S&P home price index, house price index and consumer confidence.
AceTraderFX Nov 27: Euro strengthens after weak U.S. consumer confidence
Market Review - 26/11/2013 22:01GMT
Euro strengthens after weak U.S. consumer confidence
The single ended higher against the greenback on Tuesday after a weak consumer confidence report fanning ongoing expectations for the Federal Reserve to keep its dollar-weakening monetary stimulus programs in place through early 2014.
The single currency rebounded to 1.3541 in Asian morning and traded sideways until European open. Price found renewed buying in European morning and rose to 1.3571 before retreating in New York morning to 1.3521, however, release of weaker-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data prompted another round of euro buying, price later climbed to sessions high of 1.3575.
The U.S. Conference Board reported on Tuesday that its index of U.S. consumer confidence declined to 70.4 in November from 72.4 in October, lower than the market's expectation of 72.6.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback traded sideways in Asia and Europe after falling to 101.34 at Asian open, renewed selling interest capped intra-day recovery, price fell from 101.65 in New York morning to 101.15 after the weak U.S. consumer confidence report.
The British pound moved in volatile fashion on Tuesday. Despite a sharp rebound from 1.6146 to 1.6194 in European trading due to comments by BoE Governor Mark Carney, price pared gains n fell to session low at 1.6138 in New York morning but only to rise to a fresh intra-day high of 1.6219 in New York afternoon on dollar's broad-based weakness b4 easing.
On the data front, Italy consumer confidence in Nov came in at 98.3, vs the forecast of 97.5.
In other news, BoE's Carney in a parliament hearing, said 'has not seen evidence that businesses are confused by forward guidance; mkts have not priced in interest rate moves in UK that economic recovery might suggest in absence of forward guidance.
Data to be release on Wednesday :
New Zealand trade balance, exports, imports, Swiss consumer confidence, France consumer confidence, Germany consumer confidence, U.K. GDP, CBI distributive trade, U.S. jobless claim, durable goods, Chicago Fed index, Chicago PMI, University of Michigan consumer confidence and leading indicators.