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AceTraderFx Sept 4: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 04 Sep 2014 00:03GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Down
Daily Indicators
Falling
21 HR EMA
1.3142
55 HR EMA
1.3139
Trend Hourly Chart
Sideways
Hourly Indicators
Rising
13 HR RSI
58
14 HR DMI
+ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more fall
Resistance
1.3221 - Last Thur's high
1.3196 - Last Fri's high
1.3160 - Y'day's high
Support
1.3110 - Tue's near 1-year low
1.3105 - Sep 13' low
1.3066 - Jul 18 2013 low
. EUR/USD - 1.3149 ... Despite Tue's weakness to a fresh near 1-year low at 1.3110, euro rebounded on Wed on short-covering ahead of Thur's ECB policy decision. Price jumped to 1.3156 on rumors of a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine n Russia. The single currency later rose to 1.3160 in NY b4 retreating.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, although euro's recovery fm Tue's low at 1.3110 suggests minor consolidation wud be seen, as long as res at 1.3196 (last Fri's high) holds, the MT downtrend fm May's 2-1/2 year peak at 1.3995 to retrace the entire MT rise fm 2012 bottom at 1.2042 shud resume later for a retest of previous daily sup at 1.3105 (Sep 13' low), then 1.3066, this is a minor daily chart sup as well as 100% projection of intermediate fall fm 1.3700-1.3333 fm 1.3433. Having said that, as the hourly oscillators' readings wud display very prominent bullish convergences on this move, reckon 'psychological' sup at 1.3000 wud hold n bring a long overdue minor correction.
. Today, selling on recovery in anticipation of one more fall is favoured, however, profit shud be taken on next decline. Abv said 1.3196 res wud risk correction to 1.3221, a daily close abv there wud yield stronger gain twd 1.3271.
AceTraderFx Sept 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
05 Sep 2014 01:49GMT
USD/JPY- ..... Japan's FinMin Taro Aso said, quote:
"rapid FX moves undesirable".
"Understand BoJ Kuroda's concern about risk from foregoing next sales tax hike;
Rapid FX moves undesirable".
"hard to know if raising min. wage would hurt or help employment";
compiling extra budget will be an option to back decision in Dec on next tax hike.'
"not surprised about FX moves, trend is more dlr strength than yen weakness";
if uncertainty about economy outlook appears, gov't and BoJ would call on each other to respond;
dollar has reached 105 yen due to strength of U.S. economy.'
Fridaywill see the release of U.K. RICS housing price balance, Bank of Japan monthly economy servery and leading indicator, Germany's industrial output, Swiss CPI and industrial orders, eurozone revised GDP, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls and unemployment rate, Canada's employment change, unemployment rate and Ivey PMI.
AceTraderFx Sept 5: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
05 Sept 2014 08:18GMT
EUR/USD - 1.2947.. Euro gains temporary respite in Asia n European morning after experiencing the steepest 1-day fall in 2014, courtesy of ECB's surprise rate cuts & additional stimulus measures.
Although the early release of very upbeat German industrial production (Jul industrial output posted biggest gain since Mar 2012) failed to trigger a short-covering rebound in the single ccy, euro bears, after enjoying a field day bashing the euro yesterday, are keeping their powder dry ahead of release of anticipated robust U.S. jobs data later in the day. Expect range trading n position adjustments until the key U.S. NFP data at 12:30GMT. Initial offers are tipped at 1.2945/50 n more above with stops touted above 1.2995/1.3000 whilst bids are noted at 1.2910-00 with some stops below there.
A word of warning, as market is very very short in the euro, anything short of 220k in U.S. jobs growth may well trigger a broad-based short-covering rally in the euro whilst a robust 230-250k growth is likely to facilitate structural shorts to book profit ahead of the w/end. Be nimble n be quick after the U.S. jobs data.
Geman July industrial output +1.9% m/m vs revised +0.4% in June.
Earlier, German Econ Min said 'July's increase strengthens view positive trend in industry continues to the extend that geopolitical developments allow.'
Euro showed muted reaction to the upbeat data n continued to hover above yesterday's fresh near 14-month low at 1.2920. Bids are noted at 1.2910-00 with mixture of bids n stops located at 1.2895/90 n 1.2880. On the upside, offers are placed at 1.2940-50 n around 1.2965/70 with stops emerging above 1.2990.
AceTraderFx Sept 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
08 Sep 2014 02:12GMT
USD/JPY - .... The greenback went through a mini 'roller-coaster' session in early Monday trading. Although price dipped to 104.93 partly on selling in stg/yen & eur/yen, intra-day steep fall in the pound at NZA open lifted the dlr broadly and price quickly pared initial loss and climbed to 105.23 but offers below Fri's NY high at 105.26 checked dlr's upside n price edged lower ahead of Tokyo open.
Dlr showed muted reaction to a downward revision to Japan's Q2 GDP which showed Japan's Q2 growth shrank to 7.1% annually vs previous reading of -6.8% (but not far fm forecast of -7.0%). The GDP contraction was the steep since Q1 2009 after the Lehman crash.
Range trading is expected after Fri's strong retreat from a near 6-year peak of 105.71 (AUS) to as low as 104.69 after a surprise disappointing U.S. payrolls.
Initial bids are noted at 105.95/00 and more below with fairly large stops touted below 104.65. On the upside, offers are tipped at 105.20-30 and more at 105.45/55, suggesting choppy consolidation would continue.
Next weekwill see the release of Japan's current account, revised GDP and economy watcher poll, Swiss unemployment rate, Germany's imports, exports and trade balance, Swiss CPI and retail sales, eurozone Sentix index and Canada's building permits on Monday.
U.K. BRC retail sales, Bank of Japan's meeting minutes, Australia's NAH business confidence, Japan's consumer confidence index, U.K. industrial and manufacturing output, goods trade balance, Canada's housing starts on Tuesday.
Japan's corp. goods price and machinery orders, Australia's consumer sentiment, Canada's capacity utilization, U.S. wholesale inventories on Wednesday.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision, Australia's employment, full time employment and unemployment rate, China's CPI and PPI, Germany's CPI and HICP, Canada's new housing price index and U.S. Federal budget on Thursday.
New Zealand's manufacturing PMI, Japan's capacity utility index and industrial output, eurozone employment and industrial production, U.S. exports, imports, retail sales, University of Michigan sentiment and business inventories on Friday.
AceTraderFx Sept 8: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views GBP/USD
08 Sep 2014
GBP/USD - ..... Cable was the biggest mover in Asian morning and continues to take centre stage at European open. Short-term specs (European early birds) were spotted selling sterling broadly earlier and intra-day sup at 1.6165 (NZ) gave way without heavy bashing, the pound touched a fresh near 10-month low of 1.6145 (Reuters).
Despite intra-day resumption of recent downtrend, as price is trading nearly 2 cents below Fri's close of around 1.6331, further steep fall looks unlikely n risk is seen for another corrective bounce back twd Asian 1.6333 high later in the day.
Another piece of sterling-bearish news: British manufacturers are cautious about increasing levels of capital spending, a trade group said on Mon, raising questions as to whether a recent pick-up in business investment is sustainable in the long term.
A new survey by the EEF manufacturers' group n Lombard Asset Finance (conducted between Apr 30 n May 14 with 173 companies responding) found that most firms had only moderate investment plans which focused largely on replacing outdated technology.
Business investment, key to boosting productivity, has grown for 5 quarters in a row but still lags well behind pre-recession levels and is below spending in other countries. Only 1 in 3 manufacturing firms taking part in the survey said they will invest the same on plant n machinery in the next 2 years as they did in the previous 2.
Earlier, the poll conducted by YouGov for the Sun Times forced those who had brushing off a lead by the supporters for Scottish independence eat humble pies at their breakfast tables yesterday.
Reuters reported showed supporters of independence had taken their first opinion poll lead since the referendum campaign began. With less than 2 weeks to go before the vote, the poll put the "Yes" to independence campaign on 51% n the "No: camp on 49%, overturning a 22-point lead for the unionist position in just a month.
British FinMin George Osborne said on Sun plans would be set out in the coming days to give Scotland more autonomy on tax, spending n welfare if Scots vote against independence in a historic referendum on Sept. 18. PM David Cameron had, ironically, vetoed a third ballot option for greater devolution, betting that the stark choice of yes or no to independence would deliver a clear victory for the status quo as cautious voters turned away from an uncertain future.
Osborne told the BBC "You will see in the next few days a plan of action to give more powers to Scotland ... Then Scotland will have the best of both worlds. They will both avoid the risks of separation but have more control over their own destiny, which is where I think many Scots want to be."
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views USD/JPY
10 Sep 2014 01:31GMT
USD/JPY - ..... Statement from BoJ Deputy Governor Iwata, quote:
'QQE has been exerting intended effects;
Japan's economy continues to recover moderately as a trend, although effect of sales tax hike remains;
what matters is the mechanism underlying the economic recovery and not temporary factors;
BoJ judges that the virtuous cycle of economic activity remains firmly intact in both the household and corporate sectors;
with the employment and income situation improving steadily, private consumption has remained resilient as a trend;
labour market is likely to continue tightening as the economy continues to recover;
virtuous cycle of economic activity in the household sector is expected to remain in place;
BoJ will carefully examine how decline in real income, due to tax hike, affects households' spending behaviour;
need structural reforms, not just monetary policy, to achieve govt economic growth targets;
2 pct price target can be achieved with monetary policy regardless of potential growth rate;
Japan's potential growth rate estimated around 0.5 percent; now is time for efforts to promote innovation and reverse decline in working age population; export recovery has been delayed, but exports likely to head for a moderate increase;
Japan's economy likely to continue recovering moderately as a trend;
yen depreciation does not necessarily lead to inflation;
exports are potential concern for outlook of Japan's economy;
from somewhat longer-term perspective, correction of past excessive yen appreciation will mitigate downward pressure on exports;
yen depreciation can raise prices for some goods but also weigh on aggregate demand;
need to examine output gap to forecast prices on macro level;
increase in CPI is expected to accelerate moderately, along with increasing wages;
yen falls will encourage firms to be more proactive in capex, boost exports.'
Wednesdaywill see the release of Japan's corp. goods price and machinery orders, Australia's consumer sentiment, Canada's capacity utilization and U.S. wholesale inventories.
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views GBP/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
10 Sep 2014
GBP/USD- ...... The pound swung wildly on Tuesday. Although short-covering lifted the cable from yesterday's Asian fresh near 10-month bottom at 1.6065 and price rose to 1.6157 in Europe after hawkish comments from BOE governor Mark Carney, cable fell to a session low of 1.6060 in NY midday before staging another rebound to 1.6126 near the close and then to 1.6139 at Asian open.
Sterling is expected to gain respite ahead of the U.K. Inflation Report hearing (13:45GMT), buying cable on dips for intra-day trade is recommended. However, position traders can look to sell on further gain as market jitters ahead of the Sept. 18 Scottish referendum should pressure the pair lower later this week.
Bids from various accounts are noted at 1.6110-10 and then 1.6085 with stops below 1.6060 (not large).
Offers are tipped at 1.6135/40 and more at 1.615/60 with mixture of offers and stops near 1.6180/90.
AceTraderFx Sept 10: Daily Technical Outlook & Trading Ideals on USD/JPY
DAILY USD/JPY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Last Update At 10 Sep 2014 00:02GMT
Trend Daily Chart
Up
Daily Indicators
Rising
21 HR EMA
106.17
55 HR EMA
105.87
Trend Hourly Chart
Up
Hourly Indicators
Bearish divergences
13 HR RSI
50
14 HR DMI
-ve
Daily Analysis
Consolidation b4 one more rise
Resistance
106.96 - 2.618 times ext. of 101.07-103.15 fm 101.51
106.61 - 50% proj. of 93.75-105.45 fm 100.76
106.47 - Y'day's fresh near 6-year high
Support
105.95 - Y'day's low (AUS)
105.71 - Last Fri's high, now sup
105.23 - Mon's Asian high
. USD/JPY - 106.14 ... The greenback maintained a firm undertone on Tue n rose to 106.39 in European morning, then later to a fresh 6-year high of 106.49 in NY due to dollar's broad-based strength but weakness in the U.S. stocks triggered profit-taking in the dlr, knocking the pair to 106.04 near NY close.
. Looking at the hourly n daily charts, dlr's early rally abv Jan's 105.45 peak to 106.47 y'day signals the LT uptrend fm record low at 75.32 (Nov 2011') remains in force n marginal gain to 106.61 (being 50% projection of the intermediate rise fm 93.75-105.45 proj. fm 100.76) is likely after minor consolidation, however, as hourly technical indicators' readings have already displayed 'bearish divergences', reckon 107.06 (being 50% projection of 77.13-103.74 measured fm 96.73) wud hold on 1st testing n yield a 'much-needed' minor correction. On the downside, only below last Fri's 104.69 low signals temp. top is in place.
. Today, expect initial consolidation with mild downside bias b4 prospect of marginal rise. So buying on dips is still favoured n only below 105.71 (last Fri's high, now sup) confirms a temporary top is made n may risk a stronger retracement twd 105.23 but pivotal sup at 104.69 is expected to remain intact.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views & data to be released today
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views NZD/USD
11 Sep 2014
NZD/USD - ...... News from New Zealand on interest rate decision: RBNZ holds offical cash rate unchanged at 3.5% in Sept.
Statement from RBNZ on interest rate, quote-
'prudent to have a period of assessment on rates;
90 day bank bill avg 3.8 pct dec (pvs 4.0 pct);
3.9 pct March '15 (pvs 4.3 pct);
some further tightening will be necessary;
90 day bill 4.0 pct Jun '15 (pvs 4.5 pct);
4.3 pct Dec '15 (pvs 4.7 pct);
4.5 pct Jun'16 (pvs 5 pct);
sees annual cpi 1.3 pct end 2014 (pvs 1.5 pct);
1.6 pct at end 2015 (pvs 1.9 pct);
economy adjusting to policy measures;
sees GDP yr to March '15 3.2pct (pvs 2.7 pct);
2.6 pct yr to March'16 (pvs 2.4 pct);
house price inflation easing;
strong NZ dollar will remain significant headwind;
CPI inflation remains moderate;
paying close attention to how nz dollar responds to lower export prices;
NZ$ remains unjustifiable and unsustainable;
pick up in inflation to be gradual, capacity pressures subdued;
expects further significant fall in NZ$;
economic growth seen moderating to more sustainable pace in coming years;
export commodity prices to recover, terms of trade to stay historically high;
inflation, housing risks around strong immigration;
net immigration to peak at end 2014 impact on housing seen subdued;
tradeables inflation to pick up in mid term, reflecting weaker NZ dollar;
expects economic growth to moderate in response to falling commodity prices and higher rates.'
Thursdaywill see the release of Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision, Australia's employment, full time employment and unemployment rate, China's CPI and PPI, Germany's CPI and HICP, Canada's new housing price index and U.S. Federal budget.
AceTraderFx Sept 11: Intra-Day Market Moving News & Views USD/JPY
Intra-Day Market Moving New and Views
11 Sep 2014
USD/JPY - ..... The greenback continued its recent winning streak on Wednesday on speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner in 2015 than earlier anticipated.
Active cross-selling in Japanese yen n rise in Treasury yields fueled demand for greenback and price rose to a fresh 6-year high of 106.89 in NY afternoon before easing to 106.64 in Tokyo morning as the Nikkei pares initial gain (however, currently still up by 75 points).
As market expects today's U.S. weekly initial jobless claims to show claims in the first week of Sept will be 300K from 302K in previous week, while U.S. retail sales and consumer-sentiment reports will also come in solid this Friday, buying dlr on dips is recommended.
Bids are noted at 106.60-50,106.35/30 and then 106.20 with stops emerging below 106.00.
On the upside, offers are placed at 106.90-00 and around 107.20 with stops emerging further out above 107.50.
Fuji News Network reported, citing unidentified sources, 'Japan PM Abe, BoJ gov Kuroda to hold meeting on Thursday to exchange views on the state of the economy.'