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AceTraderfx Aug 28, 2013: DAILY TECHNICAL Market Outlook on Majors GBP/USD
DAILY TECHNICAL OUTLOOK ON GBP/USD
28 Aug 2013 01:00GMT
Trend Daily Chart: Sideways
Daily Indicators: Turning down
21 HR EMA: 1.5543
55 HR EMA: 1.5558
Trend Hourly Chart: Sideways
Hourly Indicators: Turning up
13 HR RSI: 46
14 HR DMI: +ve
Daily Analysis: Consolidation with upside bias
Resistance
1.5696 - Last Tue's high
1.5638 - Last Fri's high
1.5592 - Y'day's high
Support
1.5482 - Y'day's low
1.5423 -Last Wed's low
1.5392 - Aug 06 high
. GBP/USD - 1.5538 ... Although the pound traded sideways in Asia on Tue, traders gave sterling a broad-based bashing at European open, price easily penetrated last Fir's low 1.5538 n tumbled to 1.5482 at NY open, dlr's renewed weakness due partly to escalation of Middle East tension lifted cable to 1.5556 .
. Cable's rebound fm 1.5582 signals decline fm last Wed's 2-month peak at 1.5718 has made a temporary bottom there as this low was accompanied by 'bullish convergences' on the hourly oscillators n choppy consolidation is envisaged in next 1-2 days. Looking at the bigger picture, sterling's aforesaid retreat fm 1.5718 signals the 3-legged erratic rise fm Jul's 3-year trough at 1.4814 has possibly made a temporary top there n breach of 1.5423 sup wud add credence to this view, then further subsequent weakness to 1.5373 wud be seen, this is a 'minimum' 38.2% r of aforesaid upmove fm 1.4814.
. Today, expect initial sideways trading in Asia n as long as 1.5510/20 holds, upside bias remains for a retracement of the said decline fm 1.5718 twd 1.5612 but res 1.5638 wud cap upside. Below 1.5582 may risk 1.5423 b4 rebound.
AceTraderfx Aug 29 : Dollar strengthens broadly amid escalating tension in Syria
Market Review - 28/08/2013 21:21GMT
Dollar strengthens broadly amid escalating tension in Syria
The greenback climbed against yen and euro on Wednesday due to demand for safe-haven currencies as prospect of Western military actions in Syria increases.
Earlier in Asia, although the greenback extended recent decline versus the Japanese yen to a 2-week low at 96.82 in Australia, the pair staged a rebound in Asia as Japanese stocks pared initial losses, the pair ratcheted higher to 97.60 in Europe and then climbed to 97.84 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based amid Syria tension.
The single currency fell from Asian top at 1.3398 on dollar's broad-based strength and weakened to 1.3336 in European session. Later, despite brief but strong recovery to 1.3373, active cross selling of euro versus sterling pressured the pair below Tuesday's low at 1.3323 to 1.3305 in New York morning before stabilising.
The British pound ratcheted lower in tandem with euro from Australian top at 1.5552 in Asia and dropped to 1.5448 in Europe on cross selling of sterling versus euro. Later, although cable fell to a fresh 2-week low at 1.5430 in New York as soon as BoE Governor Carney began his first public speech, price swiftly rallied to a high of 1.5553 before trading sideways for the rest of the day.
BoE's Carney said 'consider more stimulus if financial conditions tighten, recovery risks falling short of strong growth; upward move in market expectations of BOE rates could, at margin, affect real economy; forward guidance was clear that we would provide more stimulus if necessary; signs are that U.K. recovery is broad-based, set to continue; period of robust growth needed to begin to reduce spare capacity meaningfully; depressed output, temporary inflation factors mean it is right to bring inflation back to target more slowly; nobody should assume 7% unemployment is a trigger for raising rates; BoE to reduce required liquid asset holdings for major banks, building societies meeting 7% capital threshold; liquidity change could lower total required holdings by 90 bln pounds, helping lending.'
On the data front, U.S. pending home sales came in at -1.3% m/m, versus the forecast of -0.5% and the previous -0.4%. U.K. CBI distributive trades came in at 27, better than the forecast of 20.
In other earlier news, BOJ deputy governor Iwata said 'aim to achieve 2% inflation target as soon as possible with 2 year time frame in mind; will continue with QE until inflation stabilizes at 2%; there are signs that prices for goods are bottoming out or starting to rise; if inflation expected to overshoot target then BOJ will not purchases JGBs even if asked by government; increase in inflation expectations can spur consumer spending and demand for foreign currencies and help weaken the yen; decline in real expected interest rates can lead to higher capital expenditure; will take some time for BOJ policy to work, so fiscal policy is needed to support growth; may take 1 or 2 years to see real increase in bank lending due to large cash reserves in corporate sector.'
Data to released on Thursday :
New Zealand ANZ business confidence, Australia HIA new home sales, Japan retail sales, France business climate, Italy consumer confidence, Germany unemployment change, unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, U.K. business barometer, U.S. GDP, jobless claims, personal consumption, PCE core, Canada PPI.
AceTraderfx Aug 30 : Dollar strengthens broadly on upbeat U.S. jobless claims and GDP
Market Review - 29/08/2013 21:37GMT
Dollar strengthens broadly on upbeat U.S. jobless claims and GDP
The greenback advanced broadly on Thursday as better-than-expected U.S. jobless claims and GDP data showed U.S. economy is growing with a firm undertone.
Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback fell from Asian top at 97.91 to 97.45, the rebound in Japanese equities lifted the pair, price rose above 97.91 to 98.27 in Europe due to dollar's broad-based strength and climbed to 98.51 in New York after the release of a slew of better-than-expected U.S. economic data.
U.S. jobless claims came in at 331K, versus the forecast of 332K, whilst GDP came in at 2.5%, also better than the forecast of 2.2%.
The single currency traded narrowly below 1.3345 in Asia and then fell sharply to 1.3253 in European morning on dollar's strength together with the comments from ECB's Rehn as he said 'GDP data confirm beginnings of gradual but still subdued recovery; premature to say the least to pronounce that crisis is over.' The pair eventually extended intra-day weakness to a fresh 1-week low at 1.3220 in New York morning due to the upbeat U.S. economic data before stabilising.
Despite cable's brief rise to 1.5548 in Asian morning, failure to penetrate resistance levels at 1.5553/56 prompted selling in pound, price ratcheted lower to 1.5499 in Europe and then 1.5482 in New York morning before trading sideways for rest of the day.
In other news, ECB's Nowotny said 'deposits at ECB show enormous sums, reflect uncertainty but money markets starting to work; central banks' forward guidance plays role given very low growth rates, high uncertainty.' BOE governor Carney said 'U.K. can't devalue its way to prosperity; raising rates too soon would choke recovery.' EU's Rehn noted unemployment crisis in many EU countries and said 'Germany, France hold key to EU economy rebalancing.'
On the data front, German unemployment change in August increased 7K, more than the expectation of a decline of 5K whilst unemployment rate in Aug remained at 6.8%, same as expectation. Germany CPI came in at 0.0% m/m and 1.5% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.1% and 1.7%. HICP was released at 0.0% m/m and 1.6% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.1% and 1.7% respectively.
Data to be released on Friday:
Japan manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, housing starts, Swiss KOF indicator, U.K. nationwide house price, mortgage approvals, Germany retail sales, EU economic sentiment, business climate, consumer confidence, unemployment rate, CPI, Italy unemployment rate , CPI, HICP, PPI, Canada GDP, U.S. personal income, personal spending, PCE index, Chicago PMI and University of Michigan consumer confidence.
AceTraderfx Aug 30 : DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK USD/JPY - 98.33
DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
30 Aug 2013 01:06 GMT
USD/JPY - 98.33
Yesterday's rally due to dollar's broad-based strength together with active cross-selling in yen confirms early decline from last Friday's near 3-week peak at 99.15 has indeed ended at 96.82 Wednesday and as long as 97.91 (previous res, now sup) holds, consolidation with upside bias for further gain, however, reckon 99.15 top would remain intact today.
On the downside, only a daily close below 97.91 would signal aforesaid near term upmove from 96.82 has made a top yesterday at 98.52 (NY) and risks stronger retracement toward 97.45.
AceTraderFx Aug 30 : Forex Market Outlook on Asian Exotics USD/IDR
USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK – 10920
30 Aug 2013 04:41GMT
Despite usd's breach of y'day's 10925 low to 10920,
as long as 10790 holds, LT uptrend shud resume
after consolidation for re-test of 10950, 11000.
Buy on dips with stop as indicated n only below
10790 wud risk stronger retracement to 10700.
STRATEGY :Buy at 10900
OBJECTIVE : 11000
STOP-LOSS :10850
RES : 10950/11000/11200
SUP : 10790/10700/10500
AceTraderfx Sept 2: Dollar rise against euro on upbeat U.S. consumer confidence
Market Review
01/09/2013 22:24GMT
Dollar rises against euro on upbeat U.S. consumer confidence
The greenback strengthened versus the euro on Friday due to better-than-expected University of Michigan consumer confidence, supporting the view that the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its stimulus measures in September.
Although the single currency staged a recovery to 1.3255 in Asian morning, active cross selling of euro versus other currencies pressured the pair to 1.3223 in European morning before rebounding to 1.3253. Later, dollar's broad-based strength sent the pair below Thursday's low at 1.3219 and price eventually hit a 4-week low at 1.3173 after the release of stronger-than-expected U.S. University of Michigan consumer confidence (82.1 versus 80.5) before staging a recovery in late New York afternoon session.
Versus the Japanese yen, despite dollar's brief rise to 98.47 at Tokyo open, failure to re-test Thursday's top at 98.52 prompted selling of dollar, price dropped to 98.07 in Asia on the decline in the Japanese Nikkei index afterJapan Finance Minister Aso's comment of implementing the planned sales tax hike next April. Later, cross buying of yen versus euro pressured the pair from 98.39 to a low at 97.89 in European morning but price then rebounded strongly to 98.34 in New York morning on dollar's renewed strength before moving sideways.
Although the British pound edged higher to 1.5528 in European morning, cross selling of sterling versus other currencies pressured the pair to 1.5477. Price later dropped in tandem with euro to intra-day low at 1.5462 in New York morning before staging a recovery near New York close.
On the data front, U.S. Chicago August PMI came in at 53.0, same as the street forecast. U.S. personal income and spending were 0.1% n 0.1% respectively, lower than the forecast of 0.2% n 0.3%. EU economic sentiment in August came in at 95.2, better than forecast of 93.8. EU Unemployment rate in Jul remained at 12.1%, same as expectation. EU CPI estimate in August came in at 1.3%, less than the forecast of 1.4%. Germany retail sales were -1.4% m/m and 2.3% y/y, versus market expectation of 0.6% and 1.8% respectively.
In other news, ECB's Nowotny said 'forward guidance means markets should not expect rate rise for some time; central issue is inflation expectations, which are stable.' Japan FinMin Aso says ' failure to raise sales tax could lead to fall in share prices, JGBs; Friday's economic data show favorable trend for sales tax hike.'
Data to be released next week :
Monday:Australia building approvals, Japan business capex, China HSBC Markit Manufacturing PMI, U.K. hometrack housing survey, manufacturing PMI, Swiss PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Germany manufacturing PMI, EU manufacturing PMI on Monday. Canada and U.S. financial markets are closed due to public holiday.
Tuesday: Australia retail sales, rate decision, U.K. retail sales, PMI construction, Swiss GDP, EU PPI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing.
Wednesday:Australia GDP, China HSBC Markit Service PMI, U.K. Service PMI, shop price index, France Service PMI, PPI, Italy Service PMI, EU Service PMI, GDP, retail sales, Germany Service PMI, Canada import, export, trade balance, rate decision, U.S. trade balance, retail sales.
Thursday: Australia trade balance, Japan rate decision, U.K. employment confidence, rate decision, Germany factory orders, France unemployment rate, ECB rate decision, U.S. ADP employment, jobless claims, factory orders, ISM non-manufacturing, durable goods.
Friday: Japan leading indicator, Germany trade balance, current account, import export, industrial production, France trade balance, consumer confidence, Swiss CPI, industrial production, U.K. industrial production, manufacturing production, trade balance, U.S. non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earning, Canada unemployment rate, PMI.
AceTraderfx Sept 2, 2013 : Daily Forex Market Outlook on EUR/USD
DAILY EUR/USD OUTLOOK - 1.3203
01 Sep 2013 23:14GMT
Despite euro's brief retreat to 1.3193 in Asian
morning, subsequent rebound suggests the pullback
fm Fri's NY res at 1.3224 has possibly ended n
consolidation abv Fri's low at 1.3173 wud continue
with upside bias for gain to 1.3230 n 1.3255.
For st trade, hold long with stop as indicated,
break wud abrt n risk weakness to 1.3173.
STRATEGY : Sell at 1.3240
OBJECTIVE: 1.3160
STOP-LOSS : 1.3280
RES : 1.3224/1.3255/1.3299
SUP : 1.3173/1.3154/1.3128
AceTraderfx Sept 3 : Yen weakens broadly as worries on Syria eases
Market Review - 02/09/2013 22:15GMT
Yen weakens broadly as worries on Syria eases
The Japanese yen fell sharply against other currencies on Monday as worries over recent military actions in Syria are diminishing. The yen was also pressured on improved risk appetite after release of upbeat manufacturing PMIs in China and Europe.
Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback climbed above last Thursday's top at 98.52 to 98.68 in Asia due to the rise in Japanese equities. The pair rallied to a 4-week high at 99.42 in European morning on active cross selling of yen on diminishing worries about the imminent military actions in Syria but then retreated to 99.12 in thin American session as U.S. and Canadian markets were closed for Labour Day holiday.
Despite euro's brief fall to 1.3192 in Asian morning, the pair edged higher in tandem with sterling to 1.3227 in European morning but only to retreat to 1.3183 near European close on dollar's renewed broad-based strength in thin trading condition.
The British pound opened higher at 1.5544 in New Zealand but then dropped briefly to 1.5507 in Asia. Later, price rose to 1.5569 in European morning on cross buying of sterling versus other currencies and then climbed to intra-day high of 1.5594 after the release of better-than-expected U.K. manufacturing PMI, the index climbed to a 2-1/2 year peak (57.2 versus the forecast of 55.0) before retreating to 1.5531 ahead of European close.
On the data front, U.K. Hometrack housing survey was released at 0.4% m/m and 1.8%, higher than the previous readings of 0.3% and 1.3% respectively. China HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 50.1, versus the forecast of 50.2 and the previous 47.7. Swiss PMI in Aug came in at 54.6, worse than the forecast of 55.9. German and eurozone manufacturing PMI in August came in at 51.8 and 51.4, versus the forecast of 52.0 and 51.3.
In other news, a Germany's CDU lawmaker said
'German Finance Minister Schaeuble clearly ruled out retroactive recapitalization of Greek banks during German budget committee session; Schaeuble estimated financing hole in current Greek programme at 4 billion to 4.5 billion euros.'
Data to be released on Tuesday :
Australia retail sales, RBA rate decision, China non-manufacturing PMI, U.K. retail sales, PMI construction, Swiss GDP, EU PPI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, construction spending, ISM manufacturing.
AceTraderfx Sept 4 : Dollar pares gains as US legislators backs military action...
Market Review - 03/09/2013 22:24GMT
Dollar pares gains as U.S. legislators backs military action in Syria
The greenback pared its early gains versus yen and euro on Tuesday after U.S. Congressional leaders voiced their support for President Obama's recent call for limited military intervention in Syria. U.S. House speaker Boehner says 'use of chemical weapons in Syria has to be responded to, only the U.S. has the capacity to stop Assad; will support Obama's call for action in Syria, believes colleagues should do the same; U.S. allies need to know America will stand up when necessary.'
Versus the Japanese yen, dollar went through a roller-coaster session on Tuesday, although the pair extended recent gain to 99.68 at Tokyo open due to the rally in Japan's Nikkei index but then retreated to 99.32, price rose marginally higher to 99.70 in European morning but retreated sharply to 99.17 on news that Russian Defence Ministry as it said 'detected two ballistic "objects" fired toward Eastern Mediterranean.' Later, dollar staged another rebound as the Russian embassy in Syria said 'no sign of missile attack or explosions in Damascus after ballistic launches detected' and eventually climbed to a 1-month top at 99.86 in New York morning after the release of better-than-expected U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing but only to tank to 99.24 in New York afternoon after comments from Republican House Speaker John Boehner expressing support for strike action in Syria.
U.S. construction spending came in at 0.6%, versus the forecast of 0.4% and the revised 0.0% in Jun. U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI came in at 55.7, better than the market expectation of 54.0.
The single currency traded narrowly in Asia and dropped to 1.3161 in European morning. Later, despite euro's brief recovery to 1.3187, dollar's broad-based strength due to the upbeat U.S. construction spending and ISM manufacturing PMI pressured euro to a fresh 6-week low at 1.3138 in New York morning before climbing back to 1.3179 in New York afternoon.
The British pound edged higher to 1.5562 in Asia before a brief pullback to 1.5537. Later, although the pair rose strongly to a 1-week top at 1.5605 after the release of better-than-expected U.K. construction PMI (59.1 versus the forecast of 56.9), cross selling of sterling pressured price and cable fell sharply to 1.5522 in New York morning on dollar's broad-based strength before recovering to 1.5573.
In other news, German Chancellor Merkel said 'unusually challenging' events over 4 years term; German debt reduction "sensational success"; her goal is further reducing joblessness; election is about extending German "success"; euro crisis caused by "broken promises"; pooling euro debt "won't happen with us".' Spain's Economic Minister Guindos said 'Aug jobless claims show market stabilizing; leading indicators show positive signs; rule out further capital injections for nationalized banks.'
On the data front, eurozone PPI in July came in at 0.3% m/m n 0.2% y/y, versus the forecast of 0.1% and 0.1% respectively. U.S. Markit PMI final was 53.1, weaker than the forecast of 54.0.
Data to be released on Wednesday :
Australia GDP, China HSBC Markit Service PMI, U.K. Service PMI, shop price index, France Service PMI, PPI, Italy Service PMI, EU Service PMI, GDP, retail sales, Germany Service PMI, Canada import, export, trade balance, rate decision, U.S. trade balance, retail sales on Wednesday.
AceTraderfx Sept 4 : Daily Market Outlook on Minors/Crosses AUD/USD
DAILY AUD/USD OUTLOOK - 0.9099
04 Sep 2013 02:42GMT
Aud's rally fm last Fri's 0.8893 low to 0.9073
y'day signals fall fm Aug's top at 0.9234 has made
a temp. low there n stronger retrace. of intermedi-
ate decline fm 0.9234 to 0.9099, however, reckon
0.9133 res shud cap upside due to o/b condition.
Buy on dips for this move n only below 0.8964
wud suggest recovery is possibly over, 0.8924.
STRATEGY : Hold long
POSITION : Long at 0.9070
OBJECTIVE : 0.9130
STOP-LOSS : 0.9060
RES : 0.9133/0.9190/0.9234
SUP : 0.9038/0.8964/0.8924