Intraday trading signal - page 69

 

AceTraderFx Nov 27: Daily Outlook on USD/KRW

DAILY USD/KRW OUTLOOK - 1061.5

27 Nov 2013 02:36GMT

Despite dlr's sideways move after staging a strg

rebound fm 1054.8 (last Tue) to 1063.9, as long as

said res holds, downside bias remains.

Sell on recovery for 1056.5 but said sup shud

remain intact. Only abv 1063.9 risks 1067/68.

STRATEGY : Short at 1061.5

POSITION : Short at 1061.5

OBJECTIVE : 1056.5

STOP-LOSS : 1064.0

RES : 1063.9/1071.7/1074.3

SUP : 1058.5/1054.6/1048.0

 

AceTraderFX Nov 28: Euro rises to fresh 3-week high at 1.3613 before retreating.....

Market Review - 27/11/2013 21:11GMT

Euro rises to fresh 3-week high at 1.3613 before retreating on profit-taking

The single currency rose from session low at 1.3558 to 1.3600 in Asian morning on Wednesday, however, profit-taking pressured price to 1.3573 before rallying to an intra-day high at 1.3613 in European morning but euro retreated again in NY n fell to a low at 1.3559 before stabilizing.

Versus the Japanese yen, the greenback ratcheted higher in Asia and Europe due to active cross selling in Japanese yen. U.S. dollar rose to 101.90 n then 102.20 in New York morning after the release of unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims, adding speculations that the Federal Reserve may start reducing stimulus next month. U.S. jobless claims fell to 316K from 323K previously.

Although the British pound traded sideways in Asian session, price rallied after a government report confirmed Britain's economic growth accelerated in the third quarter. UK GDP q/q and y/y for Q3 came in as expected at 0.8% n 1.5% respectively. Cable climbed above October's peak at 1.6260 to session high at 1.6331 in New York morning before retreating strongly to 1.6258.

On the data front, Germany Gfk consumer confidence in December came in at 7.4, better than the forecast of 7.1. France consumer confidence in November came in at 84, weaker than the forecast of 85.

In other news, Bank of England's policy maker Ian Mccafferty says 'Economy picking up, led by domestic factors; rates won't rise any time in near future; U.K export markets only growing slowly; 7% is threshold to take stock of economy; MPC sensitive to impact of rate changes.'

Data to be release on Thursday:

New Zealand ANZ Business confidence, Japan retail sales, Swiss GDP, U.K. Lloyds business barometer, EU Business climate, economic sentiment, consumer confidence, Germany HICP, CPI, unemployment change unemployment rate, Canada PPI. U.S. financial market is closed due to Thanksgiving Day holiday.

 

AceTraderFx Nov 28: ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS- weekly on USD/JPY

WEEKLY ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS ON USD/JPY

27 Nov 2013 13:09GMT

. USD/JPY - 101.78... U.S. dollar found renewed buying at 96.55 in Oct n rallied abv 100.62 (Sep's high) n 101.53 (Jul's high), suggesting the triangle-like consolidation fm this year's high at 103.74 (May) has possibly ended earlier at 93.78 in Jun n LT rise fm record low at 79.75 shud resume for re-test of aforesaid key daily res at 103.74 later, possibly in Dec.

. Our labelling of the low at 79.75 major wave [3] trough n 147.64 is the

major wave [4] terminus. The decline fm 147.64 is the 'final' wave [5] which has 'possibly' ended at 75.32 in Oct 2011, the subsequent rally is an impulsive wave with 1::75.32-84.18; 2:77.13 n we are taking the view that wave 3 has ended at 103.74 n wave 4, which developed into a triangle with a:103.74-93.78, b:101.53, c:95.79: d:100.62 n e:96.55 n wave 5 is now in progress n a re-test of 103.74 wud be seen soon, abv wud extend gain to 105.00 later.

On the downside, only below 99.00/01 wud suggest wave 4 is still

developing n may bring another drop to 96.55 but renewed buying shud emerge well abv key daily sup at 93.78 (Jun's low).

------------------- *** LARGER DEGREE WAVE COUNT *** ---------------------------

17 NOV 2011..The break of 79.75 (95') signals this was the major wave [3] trough n wave [4] ended at 147.64 (Jul 98), subsequent erratic fall is wave [5] which is unfolding into diagonal A-B-C-D-E : A-101.25, B-124.14, current C-wave is a 3-legged move with (a.) wave trough at 87.10, (b.) wave top at 101.45 n (c.) 75.32 ?

 

AceTraderFX Nov 29: U.S. dollar rises against Japanese yen on risk appetite

Market Review- 28/11/2013 20:50GMT

U.S. dollar rises against Japanese yen on risk appetite

The Japanese yen resumed its recent losing streak and weakened against the U.S. dollar and euro on Thursday as U.S. markets were closed for Thanksgiving holiday.

Versus the Japanese yen, despite a brief pullback from Australian high at 101.28 to session low at 101.94 in Asian morning, renewed buying lifted the pair and the greenback rose above said top to an intra-day high at 102.37 at European midday on broad-based selling of the yen.

Despite brief rebound to 1.3588 ahead of European open, the single currency retreated to 1.3568 in European morning. However, euro rose once again to an intra-day high at 1.3618 before easing to 1.3588.

The British pound rebounded to 1.6326 in Asian morning before retreating, however, despite a brief spike above Wednesday's high at 1.6331 to

1.6346, price dropped to 1.6298. Renewed buying there lifted cable and the pair rose to a fresh 10-1/2 month high at 1.6358 after European closing, supported by comments from Bank of England Governor Mark Carney.

BoE's Carney said 'UK banks have bolstered capital positions by 20 billon sterling since June; MPC has judged that FLS changes will have no material impact on monetary policy; new measures will contribute to constructive evolution of housing market; FPC acting to create new macro prudential tool to vary affordability criteria mortgage borrowers must meet; by acting in graduated fashion on housing market, we reduce risk large intervention needed later.'

On the data front, Germany unemployment change in November came in at 10K, vs the forecast of 0K, previous reading was revised to 3K. Germany unemployment rate in November came in at 6.9%, same as the expectation. Swiss GDP in Q3 came in 0.5 Q/Q nand1.9% Y/Y, stronger than the forecast of 0.4% and 1.8% respectively.

Data to be released on Friday:

Japan manufacturing PMI, household spending, unemployment rate, CPI, industrial production, housing starts, construction orders, U.K. consumer confidence, Mortgage approvals, France PPI, Italy unemployment rate, CPI, HICP, EU unemployment rate CPI, Canada GDP.

 

AceTraderFx Nov 29: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotics - USD/IDR

USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11990

29 Nov 2013 01:31GMT

Y'day's rally to 12000 signals LT upmove remains

in force n further gain to 12100 wud be seen after

consolidation, abv wud extend to 12200.

Hold long for this move with stop as indicated,

below wud risk pullback to 11875.

STRATEGY : Long at 11920

POSITION : Long at 11920

OBJECTIVE : 12100

STOP-LOSS : 11920

RES : 12100/12200/12300

SUP : 11875/11790/11755

 

AceTraderFX Dec 2: Euro rises to 1.3622 after data eases ECB concern before ...

Market Review - 29/11/2013 22:01GMT

Euro rises to 1.3622 after data eases ECB concern before retreating on profit-taking

The single currency rose to a fresh near 4-week high at 1.3622 in Asian morning Friday as euro zone economic data dented speculation on further monetary easing by the European Central Bank at next week's monthly monetary policy meeting, however, profit-taking pressured price to a low at 1.3597 in European morning, weighed by the downgrade of Netherlands' credit rating. Euro further weakened to 1.3580 in late New York trading.

S&P lowered Netherlands rating to AA+ from AAA with a stable outlook and said 'Netherlands growth prospects weaker than expected; Netherlands real GDP per capita trend growth below peers.'

Versus the Japanese yen, although the greenback resumed its recent ascent and rose to a fresh 6-month peak at 102.61 at Asian open, price retreated to an intra-day low at 102.12 at European open and traded sideways in NY session.

The British pound edged higher to a fresh 10-1/2 month high at 1.6375 in Asian morning, however, cable pared intra-day gains and retreated to session low at 1.6315 in European morning before rallying above this year's high at 1.6380 (Jan) to 1.6385 in New York midday.

On the data front, Italy unemployment rate in Oct came in as 12.5% m/m, same as the expectation. Germany retail sales in Oct came in at -0.8% m/m n -0.2% y/y, weaker than the expectation of 0.5% n 1.4%, previous reading was revised to -0.2% n 0.3% respectively.

In other news, Italy PM Enrico Letta says 'will seek new confidence vote in parliament to reinforce reform programme.'

Data to be released next week :

Australia building approvals, Japan business capital expenditure, China HSBC manufacturing PMI, U.K. Hometrack housing survey, manufacturing PMI, Italy manufacturing PMI, France manufacturing PMI, Swiss PMI, Germany PMI, EU manufacturing PMI, U.S. manufacturing PMI, ISM manufacturing, and construction spending on Monday.

Australia retail sales, RBA rate decision, China non-manufacturing PMII, U.K, RBC retail sales, construction PMI, EU PPI and U.S. retail sales on Tuesday.

Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, Swiss industrial production, U.K. RBC shop price index, services PMI, Germany services PMI, France service PMI, EU GDP, retail sales, service PMI, U.S. ADP employment, Trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing, new home sales, Fed releases Beige Book, Canada trade balance, import, export and rate decision on Wednesday.

Australia trade balance, France unemployment rate, U.K. Lloyds employment confidence, BoE rate decision, EU ECB rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, GDP, personal consumption, PCE, durable goods, factory orders, and Canada Ivey PMI on Thursday.

Friday, Japan leading indicators, France trade balance, Swiss CPI, Germany factory orders, U.S. non-farm payrolls, private payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, personal income, personal spending, PCE, University of Michigan consumer confidence and Canada unemployment rate.

 

AceTraderFX Dec 3: Japanese yen weakens on speculation of further economic stimulus

Market Review- 02/12/2013 23:34GMT

The Japanese yen weakens on speculation of further economic stimulus

Although U.S. dollar retreated briefly fm 102.59 in Australia Monday to 102.22 in Tokyo morning on news of Japan EconMin Akira Amari was being hospitalized for 3 to 4 days for some tests together with the retreat in Japanese stock markets, the greenback ratcheted higher and penetrated last Friday's high at 102.61 in European morning against the Japanese yen on speculation of further economic stimulus. U.S. dollar rose to a fresh 6-month high at 103.13 in New York before easing.

Japanese officials said 'BoJ working on contingency plans for further economic stimulus; options include major purchases of stock market linked funds; more radical idea is further JGB buying; financial markets see BoJ policy move possibly before April.'

Despite euro's brief rise to 1.3616 in European morning, the single currency failed to penetrate last Friday's high at 1.3622 high and euro nose-dived to 1.3526 on active profit-taking despite the release of stronger-than-expected eurozone PMI data.

On the data front, Italy Manufacturing PMI in November came in as 51.4, higher than the expectation of 50.9. France Manufacturing PMI in November came in as 48.4, higher than the expectation of 47.8. Germany Manufacturing PMI in November came in as 52.7, higher than the expectation of 52.5. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI in November came in as 51.6, higher than the forecast of 51.6.

The British pound traded with a firm undertone in Australia and quickly pierced through Fri's high at 1.6385 to a fresh 2-year peak at 1.6443 after tripping large stops abv 1.6400, however, active profit-taking knocked price lower. Although price jumped fm 1.6380 after release of the upbeat U.K. manufacturing PMI data n climbed back to 1.6427, cable later fell in tandem with euro on dollar's strength elsewhere and weakened to sessions low of 1.6343 before trading sideways. U.K. Nov Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.4, highest since Feb 2011, versus revised 56.5 in Oct.

Tuesday will see the release of Australia retail sales, RBA rate decision, China non-manufacturing PMII, U.K, RBC retail sales, construction PMI, EU PPI and U.S. retail sales.

 

AceTraderFx Dec 3: Daily Outlook on asian Exotic USD/IDR

USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11880

03 Dec 2013 07:16GMT

Despite Usd's sharp retreat fm 12000(last Thurs)

to 11715 y'day, subsequent strg rebound suggests

choppy trading wud be seen for 1-2 days.

On the downside, only below 11715 wud signal

top is made n yield weakness to 11625. Stand aside.

STRATEGY : Stand aside

RES : 12000/12100/12200

SUP : 11800/11715/11625

 

AceTraderFX Dec 4: Dollar drops on Tuesday on long liquidation

Market Review - 03/12/2013 22:05GMT

Dollar drops on Tuesday on long liquidation

The greenback turned broadly lower against the other major currencies on Tuesday, as market participants locked in profits after Monday's unexpectedly strong U.S. manufacturing data strengthened the dollar.

Versus the Japanese yen, although U.S. dollar rebounded from 102.83 in Asia and then penetrated Monday's high of 103.13 to a fresh 6-month peak at 103.38 on expectations that the Bank of Japan will have to expand its stimulus program in order to meet its target of 2% inflation by 2015, falling in Nikkei futures in European trading triggered broad-based liquidation in recent massive short yen positions and dollar later tumbled to 102.38 in New York morning and then further to 101.97.

During the day, the single currency dropped one-tick below Monday's low at 1.3526 to 1.3525 in Asian morning, however, active cross-buying of euro versus yen lifted price ahead of European open and euro later rallied to 1.3593 and then 1.3613 in New York session on dollar's broad-based weakness before easing. Eur/jpy rose above last Friday's high of 139.71 to a fresh 5-year peak at 140.03 before dropping to intra-day low of 138.70.

Although cable traded sideways inside a relative narrow range of 1.6347-1.6365 in Asia, price rose in tandem with euro in early European trading and then ratcheted higher to 1.6437 after data showed that activity in the U.K. construction sector expanded at the fastest rate in six years November, however, failure to penetrated Monday's 2-year peak at 1.6443 prompted long-liquidation and cable retreated to around 1.6390 in New York opening and then fluctuate inside 1.6390-1.6437 for rest of the session.

U.K. construction PMI rose for the seventh month in a row in November and came in at 62.6, versus expectation of 59.0 and 59.4 in October and was the highest level since August 2007.

In other news, Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a record low 2.50% on Tuesday, in line with expectations. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens said in the statement 'policy setting appropriate; sees below trend growth persisting near term; A$ still uncomfortable high; lower A$ likely to be needed for economy; public spending to be quite weak; inflation consistent with medium term target; housing and share markets have strengthened, positive for investment; effect of past easing still coming through.'

Data to be released on Wednesday:

Australia GDP, China HSBC services PMI, Swiss industrial production, U.K. RBC shop price index, services PMI, Germany services PMI, France service PMI, EU GDP, retail sales, service PMI, U.S. ADP employment, Trade balance, ISM non-manufacturing, new home sales, Fed releases Beige Book, Canada trade balance, import, export and BoC rate decision

 

AceTraderFx Dec 4: Daily Outlook on Asian Exotics IDR/USD

USD/IDR DAILY OUTLOOK - 11920

04 Dec 2013 01:32GMT

Usd's strg rebound fm 11715 (Mon) suggests strg

pullback fm Thur's multi-year peak at 12000 has end

ed n upside bias remains for re-test said high.

Buy at market with stop as indicated n only be-

low 11800 signals recovery is over, 11715 again.

STRATEGY : Buy at market

OBJECTIVE : 12050

STOP-LOSS : 11880

RES : 12000/12100/12200

SUP : 11800/11715/11625

Reason: