A big truth about forex - page 14

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Hi IGOR,

Very interesting. What is your "superRR_MM"? Can you make a similar table for daily (excel file)?

thank you

Happy trading

 

Dear iGoR,

As I said, people believe in whatever works for them.

Lets be more practical, I am willing to challenge your theory, so we can both trade a demo account and post the login and password on public.

If you make more pips than me then i would accept your theory, if I make more pips than you, then you will have to accept its not random... and I am talking pips not account balance because I trade small lots.

I think we can both make money each believe in his own theory but if a challenge would convince you that we are right, then let it be

I don't care about software and who develop it I don't care in whatever said in the books, I don't even care if I was the only one who claim its not random because I only believe in what works for me

Look at the open trades and the amount of pips do they look random to you ?? I don't think so

BTW this is a demo account that was setup for the signal service and its only 3 days worth of trading that results in the 50$, trading between 0.01 to a max of 0.8 lot , I don't calculate the pips because I stop counting pips long time ago , but it could be around 5000 pips in 3 days , not bad for someone who believe its not random

iGoR:
It is quite amazing to see that the majority of the people "believe" that the markets are not random. .
 
KaMpeR:
LOL, this is getting funnier by the minute.

I don't think so, because I wont waste time responding to him ; He want to drag me down to his level, as he knows very well that I am a better trader than him and better educated individual, probably he needs another life to get to the level of my education.

Simba tries to compensate for his incompetence by flaming others, I feel sorry for him, but he is not worthy of my response and eventually he will get tired and stop barking.

Again thanks god for the ignore list

 

This is a screen shot of a trendfollowing scalper, once the trend change I will post new pictures to show that a tend can be identified and followed.

I have designed two other systems one that works in choppy and another one that take the long term trend and I trade all those setups live.

The trend is not Loch Ness Monster it does exist and we can follow it.

I have said previously we have to keep an open mind, and never say never, because this debate will lead to no where, if someone is not making money from the trend he wont believe in it.

 

Change in the market conditions detected beforeit happens so the expert stopped trading and is waiting to check the market conditions ... more screen shots to come.

BTW this is IBFX account the previous shot from Alpari account , next one will be from FXDD and they are all live accounts , not demo

 

Unpredictable != Random

To misquote Arthur C. Clarke, 3rd law:

Any sufficiently complex combinations of systems can seem random, allthough it patently is not

Price movements are not in themselves random but are constructed if layers of conflicting directional forces affecting on differing levels and timescales, some are fundamental, some technical, some crowd based, some parts even random (for the traders who flip a coin), some are emotional.

Just because we find it difficult to predict this complex pile of stuff doesn't mean it is random - thats an easy way out.

There may be random constituents to the soup but the recipe for cooking is consistent.

Of course it may not be possible EVER to predict the behaviours as the constituent parts cannot be measured and/or are too complex to be considered, and/or are aggregated out of existsence, so the whole can only be predicted to a limited degree

"Having no definite aim or purpose; not sent or guided in a particular direction; made, done, occurring, etc., without method or conscious choice; haphazard."

(reliably) Unpredictable != Random

 

I like to think of the market in a duality framework. Like 2 sides of a coin co-existing together. Except that it evolves in response to the combined overall effect of the market participants. If there is an overflow of good trending conditions, market participants will react via volatility regimes/market regimes/structure and tend towards a trending strategy instead of mean reversion/ranging/scalping strategy. This overflow will constantly seesaw back forth over an unknown time span. & so is such for price range, time frames, most efficient indicator parameter lengths and other market factors etc. & the situation as such gives rise to uncertainty via nonstationary influence.

IMHO as such due to nonstationary factors, there will always be a flux of changing conditions between breakout, trend and range at a given timespan, though the ratio of conditions between them will vary too. If the market conforms to stationary signals with fixed mean, variance, or with fixed 100% price patterns, market participants will catch on and the edge will be lost. & that is why market studies have found old indicators like ADX, stochastics dropping from around 60% accuracy long ago to a current 40+ to 50%. & as i recall someone in this forum who mentioned that his live trading system had a 70% hit rate for 5 years smoothly, before failing totally. & quantitative models used by the Quants do admirably great, that is, until a market crash happens, as seen from the past few ones. The most consistently stable and profitable Quant Company for a long time of 20+ years is only Renaissance Technologies by James Simmons AFAIK, while the others had only but brief sparkling moments of fame with failure.

There is no holy grail. & the markets getting more complicated to be profitable in does not mean that there are no winning systems at all. It just means that there has to be a much much harder effort to mitigate the effects from nonstationary conditions to have a better/stable system/strategy.

Cheers,

Wintersky

 

ok finally ! price action traders are winner ,indicator trader have no clue

 

Indicators work off Price action

just some or most use the wrong indicators

thats why we like this site, as some think outside of the box

 
vasude:
ok finally ! price action traders are winner ,indicator trader have no clue

Yes those traders who are trading using the price action know whether a currency pair is undervalued or overvalued and thus have a better chance for making profits

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