A big truth about forex - page 6
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Dear iGoR;
No offense is taken, I welcome any chance to learn new things and new ideas.
Last year I took a course called robotics , the couse in general is about knowing the location of the industrial robot arm with respect to the base so we can move the arm precisely to where we want to " that's in brief" not our subject... It was a fun course and here is one of the lectures from the course
YouTube - Lecture 6 | Introduction to Robotics
Don't look at the whole video it will be boring but only at the start where the professor talks about polypods... I am sure many will think this was not possible !!!
But there is an on going project in Europe where polypods where made to work as team and fix themselves bla bla bla most of the science fiction you saw in iRobot by Will Smith is based on real experiments, but in real life the robots will never take over the world because we " always" have the upper hand .
The world is bigger than forex ,and some of us face challenges in their daily life way bigger than forex, for example to design a controller for falling airplane to get it back into normal positions " that's if all the systems are working" and believe it or not it can be done, here the porblem is not the controller design but the speed as we want a fast response ... which lead to a different approach in the controller design and might use predictive approach to speed up the response, so in away we use the laws of physics to know about the future move " forecasting the future move of the airplane ", same things used in the design of military rockets as need to forecast the target location because its already moving and wont be at the same place the moment we fire the missile head.
While in some systems we can't design a controller like the weather and forex but we can design a predictive circuit " indicator " to forecast the future based on the current situation, it doesn't matter if we have single input of a million, as each input is considered as a frequency, the combined frequencies looks like a noise to the majority of people or un trained eye, same like the noise when you open the radio however when you turn the nob of the radio to find your channel you actually apply filters to remove the carrying frequency and noise from the original input signal and eventually get your favote channel ... same thing with forex ... its a combination of frequencies " orders " some from big banks other are small banks stock market whatever but each one is a frequency , and sometimes there is a dominant frequency that you want to tune and hear so by applying the right filter to find the dominant frequency you will be able to see cycles of that frequency, that could be a big order placed as a time slice by one of the big banks or a trade between two of the big banks made in away where both parties can makes money from the transaction, or traders closing their orders before the end of the month to avoid the first news on the first Friday or could be liquidations of orders before a big holiday, or big support and resistance level ... etc , but there is dominant frequency that you can find " sometime"; Once you find it , it will enable you to forecast the price and where its going ... I hope the idea is clear
I don't take this as a challenge but I only believe in physical results, so as I said keep an open mind about the different theories and never say never .
Here is my snake oil to the market.
When the market is chopping around, you have no idea where the market is going. It is like random. It is playing with you, and chopping out all the early entry heroes. I salute you. The market only tips its hand when it starts to move one way or the other. Then that is when you can trade with better odds of which direction the market is going. Because when it starts to lean one way, the size and momentum is hard to stop and reverse. Some people see a spike one way, and off they go, getting trapped and waving goodbye to their money. You need to see a significant breakout one way, then when it retraces (reversion to mean), there is the opening. The key is to get in when the market is already moving one direction, you go in...take your cut, and get out with profit...if you are greedy, then you might get stuck when the price actually finished with its move and reverses. Don't try to catch the top or the bottom.
For example, right now, both the $Yen and $Franc is moving up, the market is tipping its hand, wait for the retrace and take a chunk out of the middle. That's it. If you are able to parlay that into bigger moves because it is the start of a significant trend, then that is even better.
The market is neither 100 percent predictable nor 100 percent random. Prices become increasingly random as one examines increasingly smaller timeframes until reaching the most random of all price movements: the tick. This works in the reverse as well. When one examines increasingly larger timeframes the price action forms bars that are the sum of their parts--the individual orders that were executed by all market participants during that duration of time. There is a smoothing effect on the price action and true patterns can be seen. There are fundamental reasons for the patterns we see and those reasons are what really give the market predictability. It may economic recession or pure speculation on a grand scale by big investors. Either way, if one can understand the reason then they too can predict where the seemingly random ticks will lead once the timeframe has elapsed.
Fundementally driven markets can be traded with a bias....but you and your boyfriends are so intent on arguing and flaming to build up your giant ego's you miss the point of the discussion...
When are you going to get a clue...Simba?
ESHaHaHa...Didn`t the doctor tell you to keep taking your Ritalin?Whenever you stop it or decrease the dose,it shows... in spades.
I will try to make it simpler...
All markets are sentiment driven towards a destination marked by fundamentals,so,all markets must be traded with a bias or non traded at all.
Btw,you probably haven`t noticed,yet...but this is the same reply I gave to your initial non sequitur comment about bias....I can`t go simpler,so,this is your last improbable chance of enlightement before you martingale your ignorance into utter despair.
Regards
Simba
hi
I don't know how to tell but it will be a long thread if u discuss random or not, if there's pattern exist it was not 100% random not 100% chaos, it can be predicted, simple logic is in this world there're someone who can get a stable profit month after month so do u call it luck?
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Forex Indicators Collection
ohhh..simba roars....
Thus my comment about bias to begin with....but you are so blind with ego you cannot see...Is English your first language? Probably not....
It's funny you agree.....
The exisitence of trend itself disproves randomness. There is always trend in some timeframe.
Slices of time can define cyles and I tend to begin to understand what MiniMe is explaining. What I have noticed is they do not necessarily repeat themselves which mimics randomness.
ES
HaHaHa...Didn`t the doctor tell you to keep taking your Ritalin?Whenever you stop it or decrease the dose,it shows... in spades.
I will try to make it simpler...
All markets are sentiment driven towards a destination marked by fundamentals,so,all markets must be traded with a bias or non traded at all.
Btw,you probably haven`t noticed,yet...but this is the same reply I gave to your initial non sequitur comment about bias....I can`t go simpler,so,this is your last improbable chance of enlightement before you martingale your ignorance into utter despair.
Regards
SimbaThe question I struggle with is the definition of random. If you pull up a monthly chart of EJ and plot a line at 116.00 it has respected this level many times over the years. This is not random, it may not respect this level every time but more yes then no, there are many of these levels that give a trader a edge and increases the probability add in some other techniques and it is very hard to say this is random in the true meaning. In the same vein as your post Igor this isn’t meant in any other way but to present my thoughts on this. I have enjoyed reading your posts here. HS
Hi HS,
Included in de zipfile at the bottom is an excel sheet (posted by MrMarketz in an other topic) and 13 charts I made.
That excel sheet is a random price generator. It makes chart in a 100% random way. If you click on the button it will make every time an other chart.
Nearly every time you click the button you will see charts where one can recongize every possible patern from the TA chart book.
I added a few examples of TA that one will see on real charts in a very reliable way. You will see some charts that are even more reliable then the 116.00 on the EJ.
People have the tendency to say that TA is very helpfull and it gives a nice edge and that you can be very profitable with. I fully agree on all of these claims.
But still it does not proof that market does not move randomly.
On the contrary the excel sheet is pure random and produces the very same paterns as we can see on every possible chart from what ever kind of a pair or market or industry or stock.
I'm sure that you will be quite amazed after looking to some of these charts.
With some of these charts I can easely say that I can predict the moves. But still it is 100% clear that these charts are build in a random way.
If one wants to realy look to TA or price levels with an open mind and no bias at all then he needs to admit that TA or price levels are indeed very helpfull but one should also admit that it does not proof that price moves not random.
Friendly regards...iGoR
PS. I posted here 1 of the 13 charts I made.
PS2. Zipfile at the bottom of this post.
Drunked man....random walking theory
chaos theory....
let's try this;
anything going good, news says so, analys says "buy"
Who will you trust ???
chart, yes it's chart you'll trust. chart more like represent what's going on
do you believe, the chart move before the news..???
any theory will end by a tick, coz the chart always speak the truth and always right
To get the most bang for the buck...Banks simply start the cascade....and keep it going until they arrive to their goal...To get the goal with the least is the best...It's needs the energy of the cascade to reduce the manipulative risk applied...
Trading with size is new to everybody here.....and you would have no way of understanding.
ES