A big truth about forex - page 3
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I would describe Forex more like a drunkard walking home from the bar.
He knows where he's going, he understand what he needs to do, but on the way he might hit a couple walls and trash cans, but nonetheless he still arrives home.[/QUOTE]
Kamper: I think is the most amazing analogy of the Forex market that I have ever read. I love it, well said.That analogy is an official one and is called the "random walk theory". random walk theory explained
But the "random walk theory" stands behind the fact or is develloped to explain that the markets move randomly and can not be predicted https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_walk_hypothesis
So a bit strange to read that someone says that the markets move according the random walk theory but then says that the markets don't move randomly.
A mistake that many people make is to mix up the elements that 1) drives the markets and 2) the way they move or path they follow. It is not because some elements drive a market that for this reason a market becomes predictable.
To give also a bit of an analogy: If I drive a car then that car is "driving" me or will bring me somewhere. But nobody knows where I am going to drive to (unless I tell somebody before I get into the car).
News or fundamentals drive the markets but nobody knows what the news will be or how the fundamentals will be.
We are now in the so called financial crisis. For all the same we saw the bottom already for all the same it can take an other 2 years before the worst is passed. So that will have its impact or influence on the markets but that does not mean that it becomes predictable in such a way that one can benefit from it in a reliable way.
If the shoe fits wear it!
Of course,
Even if you just trade delta neutral strategies you need a bias,another kind of bias...the biased thinking that you can find pricing and volatility inefficiencies faster than your competitors.
Thinking that the market is random is the biggest bias...related to a lazy personality,it justifies any kind of results taking the responsability out of your hands...How do you know the market is random if you haven`t tested for randomness?Because it is more comfortable,less work and provides tons of justifications for the lack of results....so,you choose to believe it.
You just could choose to educate yourself and learn how to use the tools that would allow you to determine the state of the market at any given moment,BUT...this takes time and you will have to use your brain...for a change.
I don`t expect this to happen soon...
SimbaIf the shoe fits wear it!
Why does a intelligent conversation about market movement have to turn into a flame session? Your posts are intended to illicit one response, why do you feel the need? I understand you and Simba have a history but it isn’t needed or wanted here. Please edit your post. It is ok if someone has a thought different from your own.
Happy Trading
If you plan to learn and be creative you should never say never.
Many theories in the past were we proven wrong and the impossible became possible , so a person should be able to accept the different argument.
At some stage of my trading I used to follow and believe whats in the books, only to discover later that this is the wrong approach.
A trader need to build his own ideas, and if a trader can make money believing that the market is random, then its definitely random for him and if a trader is able to make money believing that the market is trending then its diffidently trending for him.
The fact is with all the banking system and the scheduled trading hours and news, the market can never be random, anything with a cycle you can not call it a random and there are many cycles in the forex , each have its own time/frequency on the market , for example the first Friday of each month , the end of the month trades , the trades before the holiday , the different trading sessions all those are cycles , and they are patterns in those cycles, so no way we can call the market random when it have patterns and cycles.
The description of the drunk guy who is trying to reach home is the best that I have seen about the market behaviour .
Personally i think forex is a video game and I am starting to enjoy it
Random or not who cares
as long as we are able to make few pips here and there ... 2009 have started so lets rock and roll
.................
It is true that one can achieve success with knowledge. Moreover, Knowledge comes with experience. Moreover, with time and hard work you gain experience. Some similar conditions come in the movement of the prices in this market. In this market price moves on a 100% random way. Therefore, it is advisable that build a system for your self that does not get affected by trend or consolidation.
Ever wonder why its said in forex "the trend is your friend", wonder why 90% of systems do well when it trends, and 90% of system would fail in consolidation. Wonder why we are looking for a trend.
Because trend is that crude straight imaginary line we need to make the money, and it trends only 30% of times...the other times its that damn random moving biatchy markets.
Offcourse random sideways moving is also profitable from support/resistance...but its at the most like a coin toss compared to trending.
Maybe im right, maybe im wrong. But i did not post my 1st post to discourage anyone or be negative about forex. It was just so that if we could find the holy grail solution to outsmart the random moving market, instead of being conned by the broker..
do u see most brokers have their own...pimp trainers who would teach newbie traders about forex and about indicators and make them deposit into their platforms, knowing that newbies are ignorant or innocent initially of the market and would lose money.
lets say 100,000 newbies join a broker and an average deposit was 1000$, that means 100,000,000$ aka 100million would be deposited, and if its true 90% are going to lose their money initially, that would mean a profit of 90million, and off course they have returning customers and re-deposits and more pimp ing like bonuses and trading competitions to rake that 90% cash over n over again ...The broker is downright making the most money from our ignorance or rather innocence of the fact that this is a random moving market!
And they have the guts to raise spreads, re quotes, slippage and dirty platform tricks even after making billions
I don't think that forex is random. In fact most of the time when you use the trading tools right you can actually see that prices obey the trend lines on the charts. And even when the trend is broken there is not much randomness. After all, if forex was random, we won't be spending so much time on our trading strategies and rules!
As for me, We not 'make' the market(market dont follow our analysis) its not like if trendline said 'Buy'it must be.Its the market that 'make' us we the one that follow the market.Yes some said forex being move by traders but I dont think retail traders can move the market of trillion.
And I also agree that forex also drove by fundamental and intermarket
Cheers
Heartnet
I am still learning so pardon me if my thought is wrong
.In fact I believe learning is never ending process 
homestudy,
I was going to waste my time with a reply filled with many thoughts. But then I realized why...oh why should I?...
This thread is filled up with so much crap....I wonder if there are any traders here?
Haven't you realized that Cash Forex is a biased game tilted with tools for the dealer to extract money from your little pockets?
You wax philosophical here in this thread and you make believe it is intelligent discourse...
There is not one of you here that is consistently profitable.....But you carry on as if there is legitimate conversation taking place. (If you review the thread authors posts ...dznmrd...throughout this thread, he actually has a clue)
What a waste....
This is a big truth about Forex and self proclaimed legends in their own mind on Internet Forums....
Cash Forex is not legitimate....So why waste your energy?....The dealer controls the quotes you see and the money you deposit. He fills your trades and holds the purse strings without any centralized feed.
The truth hurts homestudy and the sooner you learn about trends, fundementals and randomeness the better....as you will see the fear and the greed that drives your decisions may not be yours at all...
ES
Why does a intelligent conversation about market movement have to turn into a flame session? Your posts are intended to illicit one response, why do you feel the need? I understand you and Simba have a history but it isn’t needed or wanted here. Please edit your post. It is ok if someone has a thought different from your own. Happy Trading
MiniMe,
I actually made a Monopoly Board to make my decisions.
Forexopoly
Land on Boardwalk and you need to place a trade with maximum risk of 50+%!
Land in Jail, Don't trade.
Land on Chance, I close my eyes and place trades.
Its quite fun.
If you plan to learn and be creative you should never say never.
Many theories in the past were we proven wrong and the impossible became possible , so a person should be able to accept the different argument.
At some stage of my trading I used to follow and believe whats in the books, only to discover later that this is the wrong approach.
A trader need to build his own ideas, and if a trader can make money believing that the market is random, then its definitely random for him and if a trader is able to make money believing that the market is trending then its diffidently trending for him.
The fact is with all the banking system and the scheduled trading hours and news, the market can never be random, anything with a cycle you can not call it a random and there are many cycles in the forex , each have its own time/frequency on the market , for example the first Friday of each month , the end of the month trades , the trades before the holiday , the different trading sessions all those are cycles , and they are patterns in those cycles, so no way we can call the market random when it have patterns and cycles.
The description of the drunk guy who is trying to reach home is the best that I have seen about the market behaviour .
Personally i think forex is a video game and I am starting to enjoy it
Random or not who cares