:: I'm listening, I use SPSS.IN10TION
All you need is a walk forward predictive algorithm for a high statistical probability of future price points.
Simple right!
hi
good idea , but you need find some good fx system first to make it works .
Try MA Cross system
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I assume you want to know about techniques that will allow you to establish if the performance of system A is significantly different from system B ?
If the distribution of gains and losses generated by your various systems are normally distributed you could use a simple students T test.
The problem is that the distributions in return from any system with a positive or negative edge will by definition exhibit a degree of kurtosis and skew, so something as simple as students T probably wont be appropriate
You need to be looking at non-parametric methods, probably stuff like the Mann Whitney U test or Wilcoxon Signed Rank Test
Did some stats at university but its a long time ago, but I'm not a statistician by any means
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Anyone here got a college/university degree in stats, I want to ask about appropriate tests to get confidence levels for various trade signal combinations and possibilities...
I believe it is possible to find/create a methodology with at least 90% confidence to be able to make 30 pips in a trade using a stop of between 15-60 pips.
That means 9 times out of 10 the trade will produce a profit of 30 pips. 1 x out of 10 the trade will make a loss of 60 pips (max) using statistical analysis. It may also be possible to further reduce the risk (of getting more than 1 x 60 loss in a row for example).
If you can direct me to the tests I need to carry out and the amount of data to make it a "fair test" that would be nice.
So ideally, you can place 1000 trades, 900 will be profitable, the more trades placed, the more close to being exactly 90% probability of making the 30 pips.
PM me if interested in this type of project...