School of Pimpology - page 56
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Thanks a lot for your fast answer FX Pimp. I'm longing to try this strategy! :-):-):-)
Hi FX,
I am finding the above strategy easier to understand at the moment but tell me if i wanted to have 4 charts like the above but showing GB/US - US/JP - Gold and wanted a extra chart to show me what to choose between the 2 above would it be the GB/JP chart ??????
Thanks
PaulGood effort Paul, absolutely right.
You are basing your decision of Dollar strength or weakness by assessing the Gold market, then you want to trade USDJPY or GBPUSD, right?
So with a weak Gold market you are looking at Dollar strenth and therefore either Cable short and/or Miss Yen long, or with a strong Gold market, being a weaker Dollar you'll be looking for long Cable and/or USDJPY short.
Let's assume Gold is moving up strongly indicating a weaker Dollar.
We're looking for Cable up and/or USDJPY down - if GBPJPY is moving up you know that Pound is stronger than Yen so Cable would PROBABLY move up more than USDJPY would move down.
Now lets assume Gold is still moving up BUT this time GBPJPY is moving down.
We know that Yen is stronger than Pound so USDJPY might move down better than Pound Dollar moves up.
The shot sums it up quite nicely.
We know Gold is headed down in the top-right. We want short Cable or Long Yen.
Our GBPJPY chart is bearish so we know Yen is stronger than Pound.
Therefore Yen will be more resilient against the Dollar and thet Cable would possibly move more. In this case 1300 down for Cable vs 700 up for USDJPY
I hope this helps (and makes sense)
wrap on gold
Following some dollar strength we have seen a significant sell off on gold from the highs around the 990 area. The daily chart looks very week to me with the 21cci still negative and the 10cci showing that this is a retracement within a downtrend. The 20ma is holding as good resistance around the 950 mark and the 50ma is likely to cross the 200 as the current price is 500+ pips bellow. Together with a doji and second red candle, this all equates to a week chart and looking for selling opportunities. If this is to going to continue to weaken then the break of the trendline on the 4hr chart would, in my opinion be a good entry point. However, in the shorter term, we are currently above the 1hr 200ma, having had our "silver cross". On the 15 min chart I can see the possibility of a 123 to the upside where I'd be looking for an entry on the 5min chart for a short term play.
Eurusd
Although this pair is very oversold on the daily timeframe and our daily MAs are quite streched I think there may be something here. There is a asending triangle forming with resistance at the 15 min 80ma.The break of the immediate support line may signal a continuation to the downside. If the immediate resistance is broken, there may be a better entry to the downside with the longer term 4hr 20 ma just above. If the price can remain bellow 1.5000 and ofcorse dollar strength is to continue, this may be a good entry point. Will Core Durable Goods Orders at 1:30 UK time push this lower???
Good morning all.
Well well well. Crude dumps 300 pips in the morning, then rallies 500 in the evening. The Lord of the Darkness is trying to stage a recovery !
On the 4hr chart the big rush upto the weekly 20 last week demontrated some strength coming back into this market and coicidentally that northern cross of the 20ema over the 50sma still remauins, indicating there could be more to come. OK so the pullback to the 4hr 20ema was a little bit overdone but he's back above that region now so the next logical step would be the daily 20 at $118.70, 200 pips away.
Gold just bounced off the support line from 15th august and the 4hr 50 and could well make a run to the previous high at $836 from it's current $828 level. The 4hr CCI is now above the 0.0 and a break of the mentioned level could well see this at $845, the daily 20.
It's most definately the strongest we have seen this the middle of June.
For the currencies this leaves us with potential to the upside with GBPUSD & EURUSD and to the downside for USDCHF & USDJPY.
Euro looks like it has a bit of resistance immidiately ahead in the shap of 4hr 20&50, but cable through 1.8500 would be appealling for 100 pips.
Both Swissie and Yen looking pretty good too. Looks like the Asians have had some fun already with this lot but a break of 1.0940 on Swiss could see a nice pullback too 1.0820 some 120 pips away.
Remember, these moves on the currencie will depend on a continued moved north on Crude & Gold so keep a careful eye on them 2. Any falls could se renewed selling of Cable and Euro through the pivots at 1.84 and 1.4650 respectively
Have a great morning
Hemal, my man
Welcome back, Hemal.
I was only getting to know you when you disappeared into the depths of Kenya. It's good to see you on board again.
Honest Bill.
Good effort Paul, absolutely right.
You are basing your decision of Dollar strength or weakness by assessing the Gold market, then you want to trade USDJPY or GBPUSD, right?
So with a weak Gold market you are looking at Dollar strenth and therefore either Cable short and/or Miss Yen long, or with a strong Gold market, being a weaker Dollar you'll be looking for long Cable and/or USDJPY short.
Let's assume Gold is moving up strongly indicating a weaker Dollar.
We're looking for Cable up and/or USDJPY down - if GBPJPY is moving up you know that Pound is stronger than Yen so Cable would PROBABLY move up more than USDJPY would move down.
Now lets assume Gold is still moving up BUT this time GBPJPY is moving down.
We know that Yen is stronger than Pound so USDJPY might move down better than Pound Dollar moves up.
The shot sums it up quite nicely.
We know Gold is headed down in the top-right. We want short Cable or Long Yen.
Our GBPJPY chart is bearish so we know Yen is stronger than Pound.
Therefore Yen will be more resilient against the Dollar and thet Cable would possibly move more. In this case 1300 down for Cable vs 700 up for USDJPY
I hope this helps (and makes sense)Thanks Pimp,
That answers my question but one more please, what time frame do i use first to determine wether Gold is in an uptrend or downtrend, 4hr, 1 hr or 15 mins
Thanks for all your help and many best wishes to you
Paul
new trader
dear Sir FX pimp
Would you please to advise "Base on your system 4hr chart" EU and GU" can i go with Short/sell for these currency.
rgds,
7CCI and 63CCI cross
I don't have much time at the PC this week. So, I took the following trade for the sake of it and it costme 25 pips.
At the vertical line, the DAX chart looks pretty good for a long position and it was. However, Dow was moving down and crude was powering up. So, I played a break out on DAX short, expecting the 63cci to cross below.
But, I was so wrong.
What's the lesson here?
Well, if I had waited for the 7cci to retrace and cross again this might have pulled the 63 across. As you can see it never did, stopping me out within 25minutes.
So, while Crude and the Dow were my leading indicators, the DAX chart was not set up right for a short.
Sometimes the lady
in front of your car might indicate left, that doesn't mean she'll turn left!!
Honest Bill
Multiple Screens
Igi asked in the Boiler Room about multiple screens.
I got so frustrated with one screen. I have 2 screens for forex. Then indices and accounts on a laptop. I only got the extra screen and laptop a few weeks ago. They have made a huge difference. Consider them tools to do your job, investments in your millionaire training.
The laptop also is my back up if the power goes. With a 3G stick it is also broadband back up.
FX did a post on this before. Here's how mine looks spread across two screens.
Honest Bill
PS. I have a few cross-pairs in the background