Martingale EA - page 99
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wolfe, your a great coder.... (but having worked on martingales long enough to know better is that most of em act nuts).. I guess before you go code nuts, I would say my question to you or anyone viewing is why are you interested in martingales? Are you trying to double up because you were wrong the first time or right the first time and didnt put enough on the trade? I am not asking anyone on the thread negatively.-- just coming from someone who has been in this business awhile--- What is your philosophy of the build? Typically, in any trading are you wrong 10-15 times straight and blow the account? --- you will be if your going against a major move on a 10 martingale Therefore, I believe this should be a major part of the programming. Kayvan, is saying indicators now.. but thats a little late on this type of ea as programming would have to restart and is likely not really even doable from a programming standpoint in martingales. but the second solution is even more challenging. --- open another order in the middle of a candle if it goes in your direction but also martingale at the end of a candle? I read it as,,,guess and hope it gets there. No offence , to Kayvan. He is trading manually and the screen looks too easy and alot of things make sense. ITs not the same in ea land. "the second solution and best solution(in my thought) for this problem is , let the market determine for our lot sizes increment . how ? if the market wants to go 50 pips above or below the previous candle, OK let it go but not with 0.1 lot size position , in this case market tell us we need 50 order with 0.1 lot size . it means we must release 50 order, in every pip movement in it`s direction ,above or below the previous bar.( or every 2 or 3 or....pip market movement depends on trader risk able ) . "..
ajk,
To answer your question, I don't know why I'm interested in martingale systems. This whole EA started with a PM I received requesting an EA of this type. If I remember correctly, I told the person requesting the EA that I had been down the martingale road before, and had decided it was a losing battle.
Needless to say, I tried to code the system anyway. I wanted to "give back" to the community that I had learned so much from. The rest is history, this thread generated a lot of interest, and a lot of great ideas. All the ideas presented have made me really stretch my coding abilities, and I have increased my trading and coding knowledge because of all the great contributions. The EA as it stands now, is 10 times the EA, and 10 times more complex than the original program. I feel it shows promise, but still needs a lot of testing.
Why increase on the next trade? I don't know, I guess because the first trade went sour, and we gotta dig it out of the hole. I don't have a better explanation than that.
Do you have a better idea? I'm always listening.
About martingale... i remember one nice post of Bob:
"Well, there is no 100% certainty. We both know there is no such thing. I have been studying the Martingale system on and off for a year. If you read my posts you know I clearly recognize the death trade. Its not avoiding it, it is managing it. Managing the Martingale runs against 90% of the prevailing opinions of the day. You dont use stop loss, you dont use fundamentals, techinical analysis is of little use even though we have to use an indicator to start the trade. It is not based on anything the ebooks or courses taught in the world, it is based on one simple fact, the market moves up and down and you can stack the odds in your favor using this action. That is what all currency trading is, using some method that stacks the odds in your favor and you pull the trigger. The martingale uses normal market movement and puts it in your favor. The whole Fibonocci method of trading is based on retracements. If the market moves X number of pips it will retrace a certain percentage back. Pivot point method is: the market moves to a certain resistance or support point and bounces back. Stochastics method when price goes to oversold or overbought look for the retracement or change of direction. News trading, if the news is above predictions look for this many buy pips, if it is below expectations look for sell pips. Every method uses this to some form. Here are the odds, practically every single day the Eur/USD moves 75-100 points unless there is a big news story or govt. action. I can play for 15 point profit and go 12 levels deep or 180 points without worrying about the death trade. The price can push close to 200+ points before I have to worry about wiping out my account. How many days last year did the Euro move over 200 points in one day?? Well there were 8 days and that is assuming it never retraced 15 pips during that run. So if I set up my numbers to accomodate up to 200 pips in a martingale trade I am looking at only 8 days out of the year of wiping out my account in the death trade. I like those odds much better than any other method. ...."
About martingale... i remember one nice post of Bob: "Well, there is no 100% certainty. We both know there is no such thing. I have been studying the Martingale system on and off for a year. If you read my posts you know I clearly recognize the death trade. Its not avoiding it, it is managing it. Managing the Martingale runs against 90% of the prevailing opinions of the day. You dont use stop loss, you dont use fundamentals, techinical analysis is of little use even though we have to use an indicator to start the trade. It is not based on anything the ebooks or courses taught in the world, it is based on one simple fact, the market moves up and down and you can stack the odds in your favor using this action. That is what all currency trading is, using some method that stacks the odds in your favor and you pull the trigger. The martingale uses normal market movement and puts it in your favor. The whole Fibonocci method of trading is based on retracements. If the market moves X number of pips it will retrace a certain percentage back. Pivot point method is: the market moves to a certain resistance or support point and bounces back. Stochastics method when price goes to oversold or overbought look for the retracement or change of direction. News trading, if the news is above predictions look for this many buy pips, if it is below expectations look for sell pips. Every method uses this to some form. Here are the odds, practically every single day the Eur/USD moves 75-100 points unless there is a big news story or govt. action. I can play for 15 point profit and go 12 levels deep or 180 points without worrying about the death trade. The price can push close to 200+ points before I have to worry about wiping out my account. How many days last year did the Euro move over 200 points in one day?? Well there were 8 days and that is assuming it never retraced 15 pips during that run. So if I set up my numbers to accomodate up to 200 pips in a martingale trade I am looking at only 8 days out of the year of wiping out my account in the death trade. I like those odds much better than any other method. ...."
Interesting points of view. Thanks for posting.
Kayvan, I think I'm going to need some visual aids here! Sorry buddy.
Here you are Wolfe:
Kayvan, I think I'm going to need some visual aids here! Sorry buddy.
this one is an accurate one , on gbp/usd friday . look how the market made manage our lot size increment ,itself without any risk.if you convinced enough . please add this option please .
i tried a lot to have less bugs in my accurate real test.
I appreciate your giving back to the communnity wolfe. I am just glad that we all know up front "that this is not the wholly grail" . I think its something to have fun with. -- and an excellent martingale. Wolfe, since I cant program like you do.. I have a question. - my only thought of saving this (unless kayvan has something that is precise), Is to have an ea that
basis the martingale on indicators, that is fire a bigger bullet everytime the stochastic signal or another signal runs up to x amount on a certain time frame. Doable or darn near not worth it? I just think that a martingale that only adds on when you are "x" amount up/down before adding another trade is a waste of electronic blotter and your talents.
Again, having played with martingales and consider them death traps unless of course you can fund a 200 pip move almost once a month on any currency (7 times a year x 7 currencies) we will have to think outside the box.
I dont know about k's lot size incrementing. --- He looks to be calculating lot size of bar size.. This is doable, I think in your setup. Could be a big lot sometimes!
kayvan,
this is hindsite and all seems so easy..
but what changes need to be made?...all I can see is that you are allowing consecutive entries in the same direction...
Please excuse my ignorance...but what am I missing?....if I take a piece of paper and hold it over the right edge of your visual aids...I would have no idea where the marekt is heading...
ES
kayvan,
this is hindsite and all seems so easy..
but what changes need to be made?...all I can see is that you are allowing consecutive entries in the same direction...
Please excuse my ignorance...but what am I missing?....if I take a piece of paper and hold it over the right edge of your visual aids...I would have no idea where the marekt is heading...
ESI diden`t understand what you mean because of my bad English understanding , please say it more clearly , , sorry and thank you
kayvan,
this is hindsite and all seems so easy..
but what changes need to be made?...all I can see is that you are allowing consecutive entries in the same direction...
Please excuse my ignorance...but what am I missing?....if I take a piece of paper and hold it over the right edge of your visual aids...I would have no idea where the marekt is heading...
ESyou mean this real chart is a piece of a paper? is it too hard to understand what is our ea`s problem ? and the other martingale ea such this?
it is clear . the problem is our lot size increment progression . it is not logical . take a look back to other chart prices . and see how the market can manage our lot size increment ? if there is any question , or any unconvincing , please say it straight . then we can solve it together tnx
I simply do not understand thats all...are you saying that if a progression is followed by a pip movement of X then...Y?
so pip range predicates size right?
kayvan you are heads and shoulders ahead of me here...allow me to catch up.
ES
you mean this real chart is a piece of a paper? is it too hard to understand what is our ea`s problem ? and the other martingale ea such this? it is clear . the problem is our lot size increment progression . it is not logical . take a look back to other chart prices . and see how the market can manage our lot size increment ? if there is any question , or any unconvincing , please say it straight . then we can solve it together tnx