The ideal timeseries to trade - page 3
You are missing trading opportunities:
- Free trading apps
- Over 8,000 signals for copying
- Economic news for exploring financial markets
Registration
Log in
You agree to website policy and terms of use
If you do not have an account, please register
Hi,
I must say that you must have a point and if you are sincere and do trade fx for a living then you have my greatest respect. Discipline etc. is all very important but I just don't have it. I just can't do it so I have to automate my strategy. And please: a MA crossover is not a profitable strategy: it's a pure trend-following strategy and the market is not trending all the time. But. This topic is not about trading strategies. It's about finding the IDEAL TIMESERIES TO TRADE.
So let me ask again to everyone: what is your (from a statistical/econometric point of view) ideal timeseries: is it trendy, ranging, smooth, ragged, big timeframe, small timeframe,... (and try not to "curve-fit your opinion" around the trading methodology/system you are currently using)
My answer would be:
a timeseries with a High Hurst exponent: smooth, and preferably a short timeframe. I haven't gotten much further yet. To me right now, this seems to be a crucial value. I haven't found anything else. I'm working on a way to calculate Lyapunov exponents. Has anyone else has done something similar in mql4?
I shall repeat --- youre really trying to make this rather difficult when theres no need to !
A professional manual trader absorbs what the market is doing at the moment and trades accordingly, often simply not trading at all and letting outstanding trades come home to roost. When the market gets "roilly" and you cant figure whats going on (the banks are actually just swapping back and forth to look busy, while they wait for the newest news or something to move the market !) work the HIGHER timeframes for your trend, the H1 being an EXCELLENT indicator or scalp the one minute or 5 min chart, which is much harder for those without the experience.
Understand that the market is TRENDING ALWAYS, just doesnt look that way at times ---- if in a downtrend, news will take it to the bottom of its channel and if no news, it will fluctuate around the midpoint of the channel till the next news situation gives it a decent reason to move. While its at the midpoint, it will move up and down in small cycles providing short term trading profits to the banks, but the banks have already set their shorts and are simply waiting for the next opportunity to drop the prices and cover the trade !
All forex trading is designed to increase profits, LONG or SHORT as it may be --- that is the absolute bottom line in trading, and one should study some charts, associate the days with news announcements or the days BEFORE and AFTER news announcements, and you will see the absolute logic of the markets behavior.
go forth and apply all the science you wish, but science WILL NOT give you any more answers than simple observation.
Now, as far as ma crosses are concerned and while I myself do not use them per se, understand that the market, as I stated above, is ALWAYS TRENDING in one direction or another, while the main trend is invariably upwards (DUE TO INFLATION). an ma cross will keep you on the right side of a trade on the longer term (30 min thru daily charts) and do not deserve to be sneered at !
The Metatrader people have just finished sponsoring an "EA" contest where the winner was decidedly far ahead of the pack--- the reason was he did his homework and latched onto a TRENDING currency and the little EA had practically NOTHING to do but follow along ! Perhaps, if one was to LOOK at what is happening out there, the little ma cross method wouldnt appear so poorly --- just pick the right currency and stop trying to have the EA do everything --- heck, even a smart bomb or a heat seeking missle STILL needs to be AIMED in the right direction first, something no one appears to be CAPABLE or DESIROUS of doing on these sites !!!
until you understand how the market REVERSES itself twice a day (24 hr period) neither you or your science will figure out why its up one minute and down the next, but theres a complete logic to what happens, even a time that it happens, and it causes more problems to EA's and peoples accounts because they get stopped out than anything else in this world.
personally, i believe youre asking an impossible question in a world of one minute scalpers, 15 minute flippers, 30 minute daytraders, H1 "buy and holders" and H4 swing traders ---- pick one because they ALL WORK WELL and if youre as impatient as you say, just work the 5 minute chart for 5 or 6 pips every 10 minutes or so or take up drag racing where everything is over in seconds !
And there is one final thought, which might not sit well BUT where is it written that you can become a good forex trader ??? Is there some promise handed down when one opens a trading account ????
Some people do well at one thing, some at another but the people who think they can just hop onto forex, grab a handy EA and make money instantly are suffering under one HUGE error in thinking, imo ---- its WORK, and it has to be learned and theres an awful lot of people, with the same or less experience than you have, giving forth information thats old fashioned, inoperative and just downright silly !
enjoy and trade well
mp
Hi,
I must say that you must have a point and if you are sincere and do trade fx for a living then you have my greatest respect. Discipline etc. is all very important but I just don't have it. I just can't do it so I have to automate my strategy. And please: a MA crossover is not a profitable strategy: it's a pure trend-following strategy and the market is not trending all the time. But. This topic is not about trading strategies. It's about finding the IDEAL TIMESERIES TO TRADE.
QUOTE]
As of now, nobody has posted anything that is even remotely close to answerring my question: what is your ideal timeseries to trade from a statistical point of view. Any takers?
As of now, nobody has posted anything that is even remotely close to answerring my question: what is your ideal timeseries to trade from a statistical point of view. Any takers?
When it comes down to it, statistically they all seam to offer pretty much the same in terms of reward : risk, which isn't really surprising, as time frames are no more than an arbitrary construct.
You take pretty much any statistic you like, and you'll find that the same statistic in another time frame is related by the square root of the ratio of the time frames
I would have though simple back testing would provide an answer.
Mr. T often said it best, but staying away from that
ANY DAMN TIMEFRAME YOU WISH PILGRIM !!!
the one and 5 will probably be too swift for you and with your patience the H4 will be too long, so maybe goldilocks might find the 15 or 30 minute to be "just right", and also a timeframe used by most EA"s (cause its not too hot and not too cold, but just right"
your question was answered a number of posts ago --- you somehow missed it !
I never use "risk/reward" because I never consider my trades to be "risky", but the longer the timeframes, the higher the rate of return on pips, but the longer you wait and the higher your drawdowns and the more danger involved in losing money IF YOU USE STOP LOSSES !!!
If you do not use stop losses, and you trade with the trend (another lesson) and you control your money management in trading, the longer timeframes will yield MORE pips over a GREATER period of time, SO YOU PICK A TIMEFRAME AND SEE IF YOUR PATIENCE WILL HANDLE IT OR NOT --- I myself can allow a trade to go on for weeks if need be, but thats me cause Ill also be scalping the one and 5 minute charts.
mp
As of now, nobody has posted anything that is even remotely close to answerring my question: what is your ideal timeseries to trade from a statistical point of view. Any takers?
Good thread. I agree w/ zupcon and mp6140. It all depends on your personality and preference. I've seen H4 give some great trades but also, when a poor trade comes along, it hits below the belt but very little screen time and freedom if you so desire. On the flip side M15 catches some beautiful waves, expenses are smaller but so is profit, for those that like to keep their finger on the pulse of the markets more actively. M1 is a doozy to trade but have to be very conservative in profit-taking. 10-20 per trade is a good run on this T.F. But all this is in ratio IMHO. Can't say one is any better than the other subjectively.
It's always great to read people with strong opinions' posts, but don't get too worked up about the fact that you and I have a different way of trading.
I know everyone has his idiosyncracies, and openmindedness is not a gift given to all of us but you can at least try.
Also, if you don't like the thread, go to another one. No need to start furious battles about right and wrong.