My forecasts by EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, USDJPY, GOLD - page 34

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the daily analysis for forex market 19/3/2014

GBPUSD continued its downward movement from 1.6822, and the fall extended to as low as 1.6545. Further decline could be expected after consolidation, and the target would be at 1.6450 area. Resistance is at 1.6670, followed by the upper line of the price channel on 4-hour chart, only a clear break above the channel resistance could trigger another rise towards 1.7000.

EURUSD moved sideways in a trading range between 1.3833 and 1.3966. As long as the trend line support holds, the price action in the range could be treated as consolidation of the uptrend from 1.3477. Further rise could be expected after consolidation, and next target would be at 1.4000 area. Only a clear break below the trend line support could signal completion of the uptrend.

 
The Japanese yen fell down versus the dollar yesterday. Some complacency on the geopolitical events and a slight increase in yield of the U.S. "Treasuries" regained popularity in the side of the U.S. currency. Obviously, the yen will remain in the low-activity and will experience some buying pressure, because risk appetite is still not stable, besides the profit repatriation by Japanese corporations continues, and it will support the Japanese currency.

The corrective dollar growth has allowed the price to break and consolidate above the strong resistance level 101.60. Ahead there is a strong trend line 102.23.

The retest of the 102.23 mark may lead to continuation of the bearish wave.
 

The interest in the euro, supported by a slight increase in the risk appetite has allowed the single currency to record a profit in trading versus the dollar. Perhaps, it was the result of the reducing the geopolitical tensions, as the main event of the moment is a referendum in the Crimea, provoked an armed clashes, the occurrence of which could result in the outbreak of war in the Central Europe.

There is a quite uncertain euro growth versus the U.S. dollar. The nearest resistance level 1.3925 is suitable for the volume lowering.

For its continued growth, buyers need to break and consolidate above 1.3925. As a result, the breakthrough opens the way for the buyers to the marks: 1.3960 1.4000 1.4050.

 

USD/JPY Forecast Mar. 31 – Apr. 4

The Japanese yen was looking for a new direction. A busier week awaits the pair with the Tankan indices being the highlights. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

While the Ukraine-Russia crisis faded away once again, fears about Chinese growth helped the yen, countering the Yellen effect. There is an increasing notion that the BOJ may act to counter the effect of the sales tax hike which happens this week, even if the Tokyo Core Inflation finally reached 1% and the Japanese unemployment rate fell to 3.6%. In the US, data was mixed but somewhat leaned to the upside, especially with the encouraging drop in jobless claims. What will take the pair out of range?

  1. Manufacturing PMI: Sunday, 23:15. Markit’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index for Japan dropped to 55.5 points in February after a nice series of rises. Another drop is likely now. Note that the figures above 50 represent growth.
  2. Industrial Production: Sunday, 23:50. The preliminary industrial output move for February is expected to show a slowdown in growth after a big leap of 3.8% in January. The normal fluctuations are in a more limited range.
  3. Housing Starts: Monday, 5:00. Year over year, housing starts rose 12.3% in January. As this figure is quite volatile, the impact can be somewhat limited. A similar y/y rise is expected now.
  4. Tankan Manufacturing Index: Monday, 23:50. The official BOJ indicator for the manufacturing sector rose to 16 points in Q4 2014, reflecting quickly improving conditions among manufacturers. This is the highest post crisis level. The 1200 large manufacturers that are surveyed could show a small decline in conditions, but the figure will likely remain positive for Q1 2014.
  5. Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index: Monday, 23:50. Similar to the manufacturing sector, also the services sector enjoyed a big jump: 20 points in Q4 after 14 in Q3 2013. A smaller decline is probable for this sector.
  6. Average Cash Earnings: Tuesday, 1:30. This area of the economy is in the limelight for the Japanese government, which wants to see wage rises as a push for higher inflation, and not only rises in imported goods. In January, earnings dropped by 0.2%, far below expectations and after a few positive months. This blow will likely be corrected with a rise of a similar scale now.
  7. Monetary Base: Tuesday, 23:50. Since BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda began acting around one year ago, the main tool was an expansion of the monetary base: more in circulation. So, the year over year rises have been significant in the past year, reaching a peak of 55.7% back in February. Another big rise is likely in March.

* All times are GMT.

source

 

GBP/USD Outlook Mar 31-Apr 4

GBP/USD reversed directions last week, gaining 140 points. The pair closed the week at 1.6636. This week’s highlights are the PMI releases. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

US Unemployment Claims and GDP looked solid last week, but housing numbers failed to meet expectations. In the UK, CPI continues to lose ground but Retail Sales was very sharp and helped push the pound higher.

  1. Net Lending To Individuals: Monday, 8:30. This indicator is an important gauge of consumer spending, as borrowing by consumers usually translates into consumer spending. The January release came in at 2.1 billion pounds, short of the estimate of 2.5 billion. The estimate for the February release stands at 2.3 billion.
  2. BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks: Monday, 17:15. Carney will speak at a Bank of England press conference in London . The markets will be looking for hints as to the BOE’s future monetary policy.
  3. Manufacturing PMI: Tuesday, 8:30. Manufacturing PMI has been fairly steady, with the February indicator coming in at 56.9 points, matching the forecast. The markets are not expecting much change in the upcoming release.
  4. Nationwide HPI: Wednesday, 6:00. This housing price index is an important gauge of activity in the housing sector as well as consumer confidence and spending. The previous release posted a 0.6% gain, matching the estimate. The estimate for the upcoming release is 0.7%.
  5. Construction PMI: Wednesday, 8:30. This index has looked strong, with four consecutive readings above the 60 point level, indicating strong expansion in the construction industry. The previous release came in at 62.6 points, short of the estimate of 63.3 points. The estimate for the March release stands at 63.1 points.

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Usd/chf

The Franc has been falling in the past two weeks. After the consumer price inflation release in Germany the franc recovered.

The Franc weakened versus the dollar after the release of a mixed report on the U.S. GDP growth yesterday.

The first support is 0.8800, the next one is 0.8740. The first resistance is 0.8850, the next one is 0.8890.

The Franc is directed to 0.8800. When the price consolidates at the first target, the main goal for sales will become the level 0.8740.

 

USD/CAD Outlook April 7-11

The Canadian dollar showed some improvement on Friday and gained close to a cent on the week. The pair closed below the 1.10 level, at 1.0969. There are just four events this week, highlighted by Building Permits. Here is an outlook on the major events and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The Canadian dollar got some help on Friday, as Canadian Employment Change had its best showing since October, and the unemployment rate dipped below 6.9%. South of the border, Non-farm Employment Change improved in March but fell short of expectations.

  1. BOC Business Outlook Survey: Monday, 14:30. This highly-respected report is released each quarter and can impact on the movement of USD/CAD. The report surveys 100 businesses which are asked for their opinions on a wide range of business conditions.
  2. Housing Starts: Tuesday, 12:15. Housing Starts recovered in February, rising to 192 thousand. This was slightly higher than the estimate of 190 thousand. The markets are not expecting much movement, with the March estimate standing at 193 thousand.
  3. Building Permits: Tuesday, 12:30. This is the key event of the week. Building Permits tends to show sharp fluctuations, resulting in estimates that are often well off the mark. After two declines, the indicator bounced back nicely in February, with a sharp gain of 8.5%. This cruised past the estimate of 1.9%. The markets are bracing for a decline in the upcoming reading, with the estimate standing at -2.4%. Will the indicator surprise the markets and remain in positive territory?
  4. NHPI: Thursday, 12:30. The New House Pricing Index is an important gauge of activity in the housing sector. The index has been marked by very small gains, and last month’s reading of 0.3% was the sharpest gain in almost two years. The estimate for the March reading is 0.2%.

*All times are GMT.

source

 

USD/JPY Forecast Apr. 7-11

The Japanese yen was on the defensive in the wake of the new fiscal year in Japan. It finally broke above the range. Can USD/JPY continue even higher? The rate decision in Japan takes center stage in a busy week. Here is an outlook on the major events moving the yen and an updated technical analysis for USD/JPY.

More disappointing Japanese data was released: industrial output dropped by 2.3% instead of rising, and also the Tankan Manufacturing Index advanced less than expected. If the Japanese economy wasn’t doing that well before the tax hike, will it suffer even more now? Will this trigger more steps from the BOJ? We might get some answers this week. US Non-Farm Payrolls slightly missed with 192K and this allowed the pair to take profit and fall below 104.

  1. Leading Indicators: Monday, 5:00. This compound index consists of 11 indicators and it reached 113.1% in January, better than expected. A small drop is expected for the month of February.
  2. Current Account: Monday, 23:50. Japan suffers from a current account deficit as an outcome of the March 2011 tragedy. Since then, it needs to import much more energy than beforehand. After reaching a deficit of 0.59 trillion yen in January, a smaller deficit is likely now.
  3. Rate decision: Tuesday. The Bank of Japan convenes in the one year anniversary of the big plan announced by governor Kuroda as he entered office. And now, the sales tax hike threatens to slow down the Japanese economy. Most analysts don’t expect any big steps at the moment in the rate decision due during the Asian session. However, the governor could hint something for the next meetings in the press conference that is usually held early in the European session.
  4. Economy Watchers Sentiment: Tuesday, 5:00. The survey of 2000 workers dropped for a second month in a row in February to 53 points. This measure of consumer spending is expected to rise in the last month before the tax hike.
  5. BOJ Monthly Report: The monthly report from the Bank of Japan provides an outlook on the economy as the bank sees it. This is the data seen by the members before making their decision. The view about the recent slowdown will be interesting.
  6. Core Machinery Orders: Wednesday, 23:50. This measure of orders at the pre-manufacturing level has an impact because it indicates future production. The core figure excludes utilities and ships, thus further refining the data. After a leap of 13.4% in January, a drop is likely in this volatile indicator.
  7. Machine Tool Orders: Wednesday, 6:00. This is a similar indicator, but it comes from a private association, the Japan Machine Tool Builders Association and not from the government. Year over year, orders grew 26.1% in February and are expected to post a similar growth rate in March.

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GBP/USD weekly outlook: April 7 - 11

The pound ended the week lower against the U.S. dollar on Friday after reports showed that all three U.K. PMI surveys for March fell short of expectations, while data on Friday showed that the U.S. economy added slightly fewer than expected jobs last month.

GBP/USD touched lows of 1.6556, the weakest since March 26 and was last down 0.14% to 1.6574. For the week, the pair last 0.54%.

Cable is likely to find support at 1.6480 and resistance at 1.6660, Thursday’s high.

The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 192,000 jobs in March, below expectations for jobs growth of 200,000. February’s figure was revised up to 197,000 from a previously reported 175,000. The U.S. unemployment rate remained unchanged at 6.7%, compared to expectations for a tick down to 6.6%.

The data disappointed some market expectations for a more robust reading but indicated that the Federal Reserve is likely to stick to the current pace of reductions to its asset purchase program.

The pound remained softer after data on Thursday showed that the U.K. service sector continued to expand steadily in March, albeit at the slowest pace in nine months.

The Markit/CIPS services purchasing managers index ticked down to 57.6 last month from 58.2 in February. Analysts had expected the index to decline to 58.1.

The index remained well above the 50 level that separates growth from contraction, and signaled another month of robust growth in the sector, which comprises more than three-quarters of the U.K. economy.

Earlier in the week, reports showed that the manufacturing and construction PMI’s for March also came in below market expectations but still pointed to robust first quarter growth in the U.K.

Elsewhere, sterling was almost unchanged against the euro on Friday, with EUR/USD settling at 0.8268 at the close of trade. The euro fell sharply against the pound on Thursday after the European Central Bank it would use unconventional measures if necessary to stave off the risk of deflation in the euro zone.

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the daily analysis for forex market 10-4-2014

GBPUSD continued its upward movement from 1.6553 and the rise extended to as high as 1.6820. Support is at 1.6725, as long as this level holds, the uptrend could be expected to continue, and next target would be at 1.6900 area. Only break below 1.6725 support could signal completion of the uptrend.<span style="color: #000000]AUDUSD remains in uptrend from 0.9205, and the rise extended to as high as 0.9439. Further rise could be expected and next target would be at 0.9500 area. Support is at 0.9370, only break below this level will indicate that consolidation of the uptrend is underway, then pullback to the lower line of the price channel on 4-hour chart could be seen.

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