I have been reading the pdf you posted from Pring...if I read correctly, he would call it a half signal if only a previous trough had been broken...in terms of a change in trend.
In this particular trade I can see the logic. If price goes below the trough, that decreases the probability of a successful trade.
I was wondering if, when a currency pair continues to rise to higher highs and higher lows, at what point the trend has shifted to down.
Do you consider the trend down when the low of the trough has been broken or do you wait for the price to rise again and make a lower high?
I hope I'm being clear, but it's difficult in a single post.
By the way, just in the time I've been following your thread, I can see what you mean about gaining an advantage.
Long way to go for me though.
Thanks very much for the clearer explanation, it makes much more sense when viewing on the 15 min timeframe. I understand where you are coming from now. What made you go long at 63, was it when price left the range, or a candle pattern within the range?
Do we have an EA for your strategy?
Great chart!!!! I am going through all my charts finding these patterns on as many different time frames as I can. Awesome work.
Yes i mainly trade off the 60 mimute chart . so im looking for the trend direction from the 240, how can the trend be up since the price has been falling from 2.0206, are we above the previous high ? no, so the trend is down.
what are u using for trend identification?
Your definition of a trend (or direction) on the 240 chart is a bit confusing to me. Most traders would draw a longer term trendline or plot a channel on the 240 chart over say 2 or 3 weeks worth of data and then look at it. If the TL is up the trend is up if it's down the trend is down. Same with the channel. So if I am understanding you correctly, you would find the last swing high (up trend) and if price is below that the direction is down and if it is above the swing high but hasn't formed another peak the direction is up. You also use a trend indicator to help you determine the short term direction. Does that follow the way you determine the trend?
Take a look at the GBP 4 hr chart for example, the current trend (direction) would be down since price hasn't broken the last swing high. Is that correct? Since the overall long term trend is up, would you wait for the up turn in price and a break of the last swing high before entering a trade?
just wanted some feedback about this trade.
Am I understanding what you are saying?
thanks in advance.
good thing we have stops eh!
Thanks for your time.
bubble: Do you use any indicator(s) to show the peaks and troughs or do you just visually identify them?
I was wondering if a "zigzag" type indicator could be used to identify the peaks and troughs for us then we could use your method(s) for analysis and trading.
PS. I have no desire to use zigzag to trade...just assist in peak/trough identification and labeling.
your chart looks good , my only concern at the moment with this GBPUSD is that we are almost trading it blind ,i personally do not have enough historical data on the 60 and 240 to see where the next resistances are above the current peak on the 60m, if that peak on the 60 matches a resistance on the 240 we could be in for a bigger correction.
When you say that "we are almost trading it blind", I take it since we are at price levels that we haven't seen since 1992 or so, that there just isn't any historical data to draw S/R lines from?
trading it blind
good point you have brought up about "trading it blind". Because of lack of historical data at this price level I have closed the trade out just (TP 2.0535) under the Next Resistance level @ 2.0544.
Now I will wait and let the price action dictate the next S&R levels.
Also to note that this is the third test of the Resistance level @ 2.0544 and we may be looking at a large pull back/ correction, as you say.