Cost Averaging System - page 42
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Well, one month does not prove anything. Atleast 3 months of results need to be looked at.
i would say it differently. it's not so much a matter of months of testing. it's a matter of how the EA performs under different market conditions. if the current market condition does not change in 3 months that is not an adequate test.
Here are backtests for Cost Avg_RSI w_Trend 15 and 30'.
The winner is Common RSI v1 _30 minutes.
i would say it differently. it's not so much a matter of months of testing. it's a matter of how the EA performs under different market conditions. if the current market condition does not change in 3 months that is not an adequate test.
Absolutely correct! I should have clarified that point. You said what I wanted to
Here are backtests for Cost Avg_RSI w_Trend 15 and 30'. The winner is Common RSI v1 _30 minutes.
Jovager,
The Trendv4 is supposed to be a very aggressive version. So, you need a lot of capital to trade it. Try backtesting it with your initial capital set at $50,000 and see what it does. Also, use M5 to test along with M15 and M30. The common RSI on M15 and M30 is a tame version. It has worked well so far but I am not seeing very strongly trending days. That will be the real test.
Absolutely correct! I should have clarified that point. You said what I wanted to
Maji,
With forward demo test, it is not very efficient to test various market conditions unlesss we have enough patience in demo for months or years.
I think backtest for passed years can be used to simulate and predict the future behaviour for the system in some degree (although it is not accurate). Basically, I do not trust the back test, but when I tried it, I could see how the lot size increase in different markets and to what level, how big is the DD in the past. From backtest, we might find a suitable inital lot size, pipsteps, and account size, etc.
Good day!
Scott
Pyramid and Trend are no good EA
I can now confirm that Cost average Pyramid and CA Trend are not good EA's, because the results are not good.
Last two weeks it worked very hard and very WELL, but now it started producing some huge losses. Everything what both of EA's produced in last weeks, have now lost and are going way down. There is no way to prevent this (neither SL neither anything else) because I have several platforms installed and both of EA's working there under several diferent settings.
Will post detailed statements at the end of the week.
Backtesting IS NONSENSE!
Ranging and Trending Indicator
Maji,
I noticed that the EA did very well in ranging condition. if you suggest an indicator that can determine ranging or trending, i could add it to the EA.
I hope you guys understand the underlying logic of the system. It will work great in ranging markets but will incur losses in trending markets. I have tried indicators of sort and have even tried trading with the trend. Those have proved that they do not work. The only way to trade these systems is to capitalize yourself adequately so that you can withstand the drawdowns. If you think you can trade 5 pairs of even nanolots with $1000, you are wrong.
The overnight trends will provide the stress test for the system. Remember, tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the US and the market volume will dry up significantly. This may lead to large spikes, but that is good for the system. I was hoping for a couple of days or more of sustained trend so that I can see what the systems can do and cannot.
Please try to note the maximum open trade drawdowns during these trending times and that should provide an idea for capital required to trade these cost averaging systems.
10Point3 and all of it's hybrid offshoots suffer (or prosper) from the same problem of trending periods and the associated drawdowns. Likewise, I've noticed that Predator & Terminator do exceedingly well during consolidations, using very little capital to make some nice profits. I'm experimenting with an option in Predator to force it to trade only during ranging periods by incorporating the Chop-Zone indicator (CZI). Using that along with the Jurik trend indicators might just be the ticket to safe consistent profits and the best of both worlds.
It will work great in ranging markets but will incur losses in trending markets.
Is there a way to determine wheather the market is rangin or trending?