Cost Averaging System - page 6
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hello, i am ok to test this ea, could you please email me at sterdnfr@yahoo.fr
I tried sending you an email but it got rejected. Please PM me with your email address if you are still interested.
Thanks.
Report Since Sunday Night! 15 M-TF, Based on this report, maybe longer time frames may be better 30M and or 1H.
Velocity4x Demo. Same as Live Server
Maji, why is one trade 1.70, instead of 1.00 Lot's?
EA test
Report Since Sunday Night! 15 M-TF, Based on this report, maybe longer time frames may be better 30M and or 1H.
Velocity4x Demo. Same as Live Server
Maji, why is one trade 1.70, instead of 1.00 Lot's?Which version is it and what settings ?
Please post set file.
Report Since Sunday Night! 15 M-TF, Based on this report, maybe longer time frames may be better 30M and or 1H.
Velocity4x Demo. Same as Live Server
Maji, why is one trade 1.70, instead of 1.00 Lot's?Which EA are you using?
I have no idea why that 1.70 lots. Sometimes, these EAs have a mind of their own. Perhaps there is an unintended bug that I need to look for. Let me know which EA and I will take a look. No guarantee that I can find out the hidden bugs though.
Also, why do you think the higher time frames will work better?
Thanks.
Aaragorn,
Thank you for your observations and comments. You are doing exactly what I thought the testers will be doing. We are pooling our experience to make this a better and more stable system.
As for engaging the market at higher time frames with the RSI - just change the RSIlevels to lower values so that the smaller movements can trigger trades. We are looking for trend exhaustions here, so if you make it too easy, then you will have larger drawdowns.
The objective of the RSI system is to make the system less riskier. Now less risk means less gains. That is proportional... that is the nature of the markets. Thus, you will see lower profits with the RSI system, and it is intended to be that way. It will be in the market much less time than the unfiltered one, which is pure random entry in my mind.
Hope this helps.
I believe the large drawdown we see on the end of backtests are simply due to the fact that the floating trades don't get the opportunity to close at the end of the data set, not that they actually lost. In a forward test they would be allowed to close for wins.
I have yet to get the rsi filtered EA to perform as well as the the unfiltered EA regardless of what timeframe I test. Also when testing the rsi filtered EA on longer timeframes it doesn't enter as many trades. It is substantially less active in engaging the market. This lack of engagement doesn't necessarily correspond to an increase in it's winning the positions it does enter. I don't think the rsi filter is an asset to this system.
On the positive side it appears that the v2-pyramid version itself is making consistent gains. my demo acct is now up $164 to $664 from $500. I am starting to see the vision of how this works and I like it.
The biggest risk to this system that I am seeing isn't coming from the market movement per se but from the possibility of overextension of the margin. I think it will win pretty much all the time (except for during serious trending- maybe even then) IF it has sufficient margin to allow it to open up as it needs to to larger positions.
Therefore a risk management strategy for this EA needs to be based on money management.
Forgot to put the EA I used here it's reposted Cost-Avg with RSI 15M TF, no presets default just attach to the chart, interesting on loss closed at $8, 1.70Lot's may be due to Power Failure during Thunderstorm Sunday Night. Also started Running Report at 1H will post in a few day's. Regarding increasing the time frame no idea, I know Firebird is less risk doing that in most cases.
Have a question it lots reduced from 0.1 to 0.01, does that mean less risk.
Thanks!
Have a question it lots reduced from 0.1 to 0.01, does that mean less risk.
Thanks!Absolutely... it means that if the market goes into a sustained trend without retracements, you will have the reserve margin to stay in the market without getting the dreaded margin call. I call that less risk. Of course, less risk comes with less reward... so the trader has to be the judge.
Aaragorn,
Thanks for your reply. I know I have read it somewhere that the market ranges for a longer period of time than it trends. So, your observations are correct in my opinion. The clue is to find when the markets are trending and it has reached our pain threshold. That is the time to get out and take a loss and start the trades all over again. That is why I introduced the stoploss as a percent of equity feature.
Let us keep on testing and hope we get something going here. By the way, the system trades off closed bars, so any reasonable modelling percent during backtesting should be a good indicator of what really happened in that testing period. That is very unlike systems that are dependent on ticks, which are synthesized by MT backtester and hence prone to false results.
Aaragorn,
Thank you for your observations and comments. You are doing exactly what I thought the testers will be doing. We are pooling our experience to make this a better and more stable system.
As for engaging the market at higher time frames with the RSI - just change the RSIlevels to lower values so that the smaller movements can trigger trades. We are looking for trend exhaustions here, so if you make it too easy, then you will have larger drawdowns.
The objective of the RSI system is to make the system less riskier. Now less risk means less gains. That is proportional... that is the nature of the markets. Thus, you will see lower profits with the RSI system, and it is intended to be that way. It will be in the market much less time than the unfiltered one, which is pure random entry in my mind.
Hope this helps.Randomness of the initial entry isn't the critical issue for this system. Most of my data and testing which I have done over the last two years suggests to me that the market retraces approx. 73% of the time or more. This means that nearly 3/4 of the time there are ample opportunities to cost average and recover from being wrong initially. That underlying dynamic of market activity is the underlying reality that this system exploits very well. I can see the power of this system.
I have always felt that strategies needed to be directly tied to trending price action. It was a streach for me to look at the cyberia EA which is all based on probabilities and not directly linked to moving averages for it's signals. My mind has been opened to the possibilities of strategies which are not directly moving average driven and this cost averaging EA is a great example of a system that works and works well despite it's apparent initial randomness. While it may be practically random initially it simply doesn't matter....well...it matters it's just not it's largest determinant. It has the advantage of the odds being in it's favor. It's very unlikely that the currency markets will shift their overall trending to ranging ratios substantially enough to make this system lose it's efficiency no matter how much it's used. I just don't see that happening either.
I think you are really on to something very stable and consistent here. The only eminent long term danger to this as I have said is the overextension of margins. If the greed factor of the user can be appropriately limited this should rock and roll day in and day out. Optimization of how to determine the initial lot size of the first position in the series based on free margin, respective of how many pairs the system is running on etc. Give the EA the ability to recognize and protect itself from margin call. That's where I think the biggest rewards to maximizing this system are.
I also see a high reward in keeping this from overextending when a major trend reversal goes against it. You have to decide at what point to cut your losses and start over.