USDCAD Technical Analysis 22.12 - 29.12: Ranging Bullish to Correction and Breakdown?
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newdigital, 2013.12.23 05:26
USDCAD fundamentals: December 23 - 27
Monday, December 23
Canada is to release monthly data on
gross domestic product, the broadest indicator of economic activity and
the leading measure of the economy’s health.
The U.S. is to
produce government data on personal spending and expenditure, while the
University of Michigan is to release revised data on consumer sentiment
and inflation expectations.
Tuesday, December 24
The U.S. is to release data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a report on new home sales.
Wednesday, December 25
Markets in Canada and the U.S. will remain closed for the Christmas Day holiday.
Thursday, December 26
Markets in Canada will remain closed in observance of Boxing Day.
Meanwhile, the U.S. is to release weekly data on initial jobless claims.
Friday, December 27
The U.S. is to round up the week with a report on crude oil supplies.
The price broke all the borders of Ichimoku cloud (Ichimoku cloud is kumo - just terminology) but Chinkou Span line did not break historical price so it was false signal to sell :
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If you see 18 pips in profit for USDCAD on the chart so - I am trading in counter trend (trading secondary trend = counter trend trading style; trading primary trend only - trend following style).
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newdigital, 2013.12.24 09:38
Trading the News: U.S. Durable Goods Orders (based on dailyfx article)
Demands for U.S. Durable Goods are projected to increase 2.0% in November and a strong rebound may spark a bullish reaction in the greenback as the Fed moves away from its easing cycle.
What’s Expected:
- Time of release: 12/24/2013 13:30 GMT, 8:30 EST
- Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
- Expected: 2.0%
-
Previous: -2.0%
- Forecast: 1.0% to 2.0%
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish USD Trade: Orders Rebound 2.0% or Greater
- Need red, five-minute candle following the report to consider a short EURUSD trade
- If the market reaction favors a bullish dollar trade, establish short EURUSD with two position
- Set stop at the near-by swing high/reasonable distance from entry with at least 1:1 risk-to-reward
- Move stop to breakeven on remaining position once initial target is met; set reasonable limit
Bearish USD Trade: Demands Contract for Second Month
- Need green, five-minute candle following the release to look at a long EURUSD entry
- Implement same setup as the bullish USD trade, just in opposite direction
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EURUSD Technical Analysis 22.12 - 29.12: Ranging Correction
newdigital, 2013.12.24 15:14
About U.S. Durable Goods Orders (see previous post) :
- Actual: 3.5% (according to official press release)
-
Previous: -1.6% (revised from -2.0%)
- Forecast: 1.7% (corrected from 2.0%)
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
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USDCAD M5 : 20 pips price movement by USD Durable Goods Orders
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newdigital, 2013.12.24 18:19
2013-12-24 15:00 GMT (or 16:00 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - New Home Sales]
- past data is 474K
- forecast data is 445K
- actual data is 464K according to the latest press release
if actual > forecast = good for currency (for USD in our case)
==========
U.S. New Home Sales Drop 2.1% In November But Come In Above Estimates
While the Commerce Department released a report on Tuesday showing a drop in new home sales in the U.S. in the month of November, sales still came in above economist estimates due to an upward revision to the October data.
The report said new home sales fell 2.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000 in November from the revised October rate of 474,000.
Economists had expected sales to climb to edge up to 450,000 from the 444,000 originally reported for the previous month.
With the upward revision, the annual rate seen in October reflected the highest since new home sales hit a rate of 477,000 in July of 2008.
The Commerce Department noted that new home sales in November are up by 16.6 percent compared to the same month a year ago despite the monthly decrease.
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USDCAD M5 : 26 pips price movement by USD - New Home Sales news event
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Chinkou Span line is too far from historical price on D1 timeframe, and price is on ranging bulish condition for now trying to go to secondary correction. And if we look at H4 timeframe so this secondary correction was already started within primary bullish trend. On W1 - flat within primary bullish, and MN timeframe price is inside Ichimoku cloud/kumo for few months already which is indicating ranging market condition.
If the price will break 1.0727 resistance level so the primary bullish will be continuing with good upward.
If the price will break the bottom border of Ichimoku cloud on H4 timeframe and Chinkou Span will break H4 historical price from above to below on the same time, and if D1 price will break 1.0560 support from above to below - we will see good breakdown on H4 to trend reversal from bullish to bearish, and good correction on D1 timeframe.
UPCOMING EVENTS (high/medium impacted news events which may be affected on USDCAD price movement for this coming week)
2013-12-23 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [CAD - GDP]
2013-12-24 13:30 GMT (or 14:30 MQ MT5 time) | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]
Please note : some US (and CNY) high/medium impacted news events (incl speeches) are also affected on USDCAD price movementSUMMARY : ranging
TREND : correction
Intraday Chart