Is it possible to guess tops and bottoms of price action? Close to a holy grail? - page 2

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rfb:

Don't take it as offensive, to predict highs and bottoms there could be 'some' need like adaptive technology, not only on fixed past movements, but also what could(would) else be as change (but of course not to go far in extreme as should be that indicator), what can worst happen (or -What's the Worst That Could Happen-)

It is just what is happening (almost always in real) without adaptive things on changes. (just my thoughts, no-one to take it as offensive).


Hello,

I think that, a good system shouldn´t have adaptative parameters.

;D

 
CROM: I think that, a good system shouldn´t have adaptative parameters.
Well, ;) you are right, 1 Point on range of 100 when future line is for 99%+ it will be established for sure, is secure enough to be said as good, but... now when we move further... with GREEDY to have 2 Points... and etc. we get to, at one moment it is needed to be considered as risky trading strategy and that we will miss the next trade (that's on overbought-oversold ie. levels), and if that happens... 1.) Should be taken the loss entry as parameters like winners for opposite decision, or 2.) Consider it as occasional 'vacation ;)' without stop-loss 3.) Continue with old strategy from beginning as 1 Point - and that's the moment when ...where we don't have adapting parameters. Well I like the 1-st and the last 3) most.

p.s "When Greedy expands over Grid, is the true freedom" - (Me - when I dream ;o) )

But, let's go back to the thing, " a good system shouldn't have adaptability or changing parameters", If I am a winner and I want to continue to win I wouldn't change the strategy or myself.. and if we all are winners, We Stand ;)? Right? ... And some occasion other who does not feel as we(us) as winners ... and wants to try the challenge, is faced with Tank ;) or nothing maybe, how we consider to give (her/him or him/her) some advice - for example to win over Tank, we consider the trading market to be the tank who returns the hits plainly ;) and the one 'without adaptive' IS gonna break everything own at one moment with what the one hits the tank - if the one has not the good system (or the good system does not exist). What is adaptive..: we 'humans' in construction, are made for long runs as opposite some species which we see around us on globe, so we make things which 'WILL' and help to us for some relax or SOME gaining advantages over some occasions (crude reality) but lets consider it as a game, as long as we don't hurt each other .. )!

Wouldn't you and anyone else who can used equilibrium-powered-generator with-unlimited-production and carried-in-hands without-radioactivity if I offered it for free as blueprints? And latter someone would come and sell to you the same something like "I can bring you to the rich planet without water and sun, would you like?". I wouldn't accept, but I wouldn't sell the first thing on the first place.

So that's why we always discuss the small things.

But If you ask me, I always like the small things, or sometimes nothing. But anyway, I agree with you "good system shouldn´t have adaptative parameters."
 

But If you ask me, I always like the small things, or sometimes nothing. But anyway, I agree with you "good system shouldn´t have adaptative parameters."

Thanks for your reply rfb...

During a lot of years I was thinking about how optimize my systems with parameters, but I think is a waste of time.

At this moment I like geometric entry points in a chart with lines.
 
CROM:

Hello,

I think that, a good system shouldn´t have adaptative parameters.

;D

I think the timeframe does force you to adapt your parameters. Volatility changes a lot from timeframe to timeframe.
 

Hello freinds,

1) The best idea that I met during my Forex life is the KG model, which find the Fibbo lines at the important TF,

2) Comput the bollinger bonds as if you are at TF=1 hour chart then the Time you look back is corresponded to

H4 (time back = 4), H8 (time back = 8 - which is the third part of the day), D1 (time back = 24) etc.

Find the KG model at the forex forums (the Indonazian one)

Please check me.

Y.

 
rfb:

Don't take it as offensive, to predict highs and bottoms there could be 'some' need like adaptive technology, not only on fixed past movements, but also what could(would) else be as change (but of course not to go far in extreme as should be that indicator), what can worst happen (or -What's the Worst That Could Happen-)

It is just what is happening (almost always in real) without adaptive things on changes. (just my thoughts, no-one to take it as offensive).

Curve fitting the past will most certainly end up in the 'mountain' equity chart shape. How about seeing it the other way? Have the algorithm to be resilient, instead of adaptive. Then the law of large numbers will sort things out.
 
flaab:
I think the timeframe does force you to adapt your parameters. Volatility changes a lot from timeframe to timeframe.

You can find good geometric entry points without volatility parameters with regression channels and Gann / Fibo lines...

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